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Lab leak vs natural spill over is a distraction from the lack of evidence that COVID-19 is a viral pandemic originating in China.
In my previous threads I showed that the lockdown in Wuhan was too late.
I showed that all cause mortality was already well above normal and an estimated 7 million people left the city in the weeks leading up to the lockdown, including 300,000 people on the eve of the lockdown.
I showed that the vast majority of international travelers went to other Asian countries.
I showed that studies, including the Seattle Flu Study, finding a lack of early spread of the virus lack plausibility due to the absence of false positives, and I showed that there is a larger body of contradictory evidence.
In this thread, I will show that the excess mortality during the spring 2020 wave was associated with a decline in emergency department utilization, not just for low acuity visits but for high acuity visits as well.
If this is confusing due to media reporting on overwhelmed hospitals, the confusion is coming from the fact that the emergency department and intensive care unit are separate.
I will present data showing that ED utilization went down while ICU utilization went up, suggesting that patients delayed care until it was too late.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-daily-per-100k-economist
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html
#COVID #COVID19 #epidemiology #bioinformatics #healthcareisahumanright
Additional evidence from New York City showing that patients delayed care during the COVID-19 spring 2020 wave:
COVID-19 doesn't cause severe symptoms on the day of infection - like any other infectious disease, it takes time for the disease to progress.
"The four clinical outcomes considered were as follows:
Dead on arrival (DOA):
if the patient arrived in cardiac arrest with high suspicion of COVID-19 and was unable to be resuscitated.
Died in ED (DED):
the patient did not survive ED resuscitation attempts.
Died as an inpatient/died in hospital (DIH).
Survived to hospital discharge...
...Sub-cohort analysis based on primary patient disposition was also considered...
...We found that within this cohort, male sex, advanced age, a history of coronary artery disease, the non-respiratory findings of lactic acidosis, elevated D-dimer, and CKD/AKI were correlated with death either in the ED or during the patient's hospital course.
Fever, hypotension, and even initial respiratory status (including our analysis of the pre and post Sp02 [the Sp02 delta]) were not strongly correlated with outcomes
(likely because of the fact that all patients were severely hypoxic on arrival)."
D'Amore J, Meigher S, Patterson E, et al. Intubation outcomes and practice trends during the initial New York SARS-COV-19 surge at an academic, level 1 trauma, urban emergency department. JACEP Open. 2021; 2:e12563.
