Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learningMany natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt
and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can
provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning
generic features of bifurcations (dynamical instabilities) from large simulated
training data sets. So far, classifiers have only been trained to predict
continuous-time bifurcations, ignoring rich dynamics unique to discrete-time
bifurcations. Here, we train a deep learning classifier to provide an EWS for
the five local discrete-time bifurcations of codimension-1. We test the
classifier on simulation data from discrete-time models used in physiology,
economics and ecology, as well as experimental data of spontaneously beating
chick-heart aggregates that undergo a period-doubling bifurcation. The
classifier outperforms commonly used EWS under a wide range of noise
intensities and rates of approach to the bifurcation. It also predicts the
correct bifurcation in most cases, with particularly high accuracy for the
period-doubling, Neimark-Sacker and fold bifurcations. Deep learning as a tool
for bifurcation prediction is still in its nascence and has the potential to
transform the way we monitor systems for critical transitions.
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