Probabilistic Overview of Probabilities of Default for Low Default Portfolios by K. Pluto and D. TascheThis article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of
default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are
listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the
probability of default is involved under the influence of systematic factor.
The author anticipates adding more clarity, especially for early career
analysts or scholars, regarding the assumption of borrowers' independence,
conditional independence and interaction between the probability distributions
such as binomial, beta, normal and others. There is also shown the relation
between the probability of default and the joint distribution of
$\sqrt{\varrho}X-\sqrt{1-\varrho}Y$, where $X$, including but not limiting, is
the standard normal, $Y$ admits, including but not limiting, the beta-normal
distribution and $X,\,Y$ are independent.
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