Multi-Stage Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Modeling, with Application to Heavy-Ion CollisionsIn an era where scientific experimentation is often costly, multi-fidelity
emulation provides a powerful tool for predictive scientific computing. While
there has been notable work on multi-fidelity modeling, existing models do not
incorporate an important multi-stage property of multi-fidelity simulators,
where multiple fidelity parameters control for accuracy at different
experimental stages. Such multi-stage simulators are widely encountered in
complex nuclear physics and astrophysics problems. We thus propose a new
Multi-stage Multi-fidelity Gaussian Process (M$^2$GP) model, which embeds this
multi-stage structure within a novel non-stationary covariance function. We
show that the M$^2$GP model can capture prior knowledge on the numerical
convergence of multi-stage simulators, which allows for cost-efficient
emulation of multi-fidelity systems. We demonstrate the improved predictive
performance of the M$^2$GP model over state-of-the-art methods in a suite of
numerical experiments and two applications, the first for emulation of
cantilever beam deflection and the second for emulating the evolution of the
quark-gluon plasma, which was theorized to have filled the Universe shortly
after the Big Bang.
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