Statistical inference for rough volatility: Minimax TheoryRough volatility models have gained considerable interest in the quantitative
finance community in recent years. In this paradigm, the volatility of the
asset price is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with a small value for
the Hurst parameter $H$. In this work, we provide a rigorous statistical
analysis of these models. To do so, we establish minimax lower bounds for
parameter estimation and design procedures based on wavelets attaining them. We
notably obtain an optimal speed of convergence of $n^{-1/(4H+2)}$ for
estimating $H$ based on n sampled data, extending results known only for the
easier case $H>1/2$ so far. We therefore establish that the parameters of rough
volatility models can be inferred with optimal accuracy in all regimes.
arxiv.org