Sample size determination via learning-type curvesThis paper is concerned with sample size determination methodology for
prediction models. We propose combining the individual calculations via a
learning-type curve. We suggest two distinct ways of doing so, a deterministic
skeleton of a learning curve and a Gaussian process centred upon its
deterministic counterpart. We employ several learning algorithms for modelling
the primary endpoint and distinct measures for trial efficacy. We find that the
performance may vary with the sample size, but borrowing information across
sample size universally improves the performance of such calculations. The
Gaussian process-based learning curve appears more robust and statistically
efficient, while computational efficiency is comparable. We suggest that
anchoring against historical evidence when extrapolating sample sizes should be
adopted when such data are available. The methods are illustrated on binary and
survival endpoints.
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