Interesting column on probabilistic decision making. The key point it reinforced for me is that a correct decision can have a bad outcome.
Whet making a decision you weight the costs and benefits of the alternatives, and the likelihood of their happening. Then you make a choice, knowing that the outcome you want is not assured. It's still the right choice, given what you knew, even if the dice go against you and the bad outcome happens.
(Link below is a "gift" link. Anybody can read it.)
