'Unfortunately, the past tense is correct, because since the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002—thereby legitimizing the unilateral renunciation of an agreement by one party if it no longer finds the restrictions to its taste—the other agreements have fallen one by one. In February 2026—about five hundred days from now—New START, the last remaining brick in the edifice so painstakingly built, will expire, leaving the United States and Russia with no restrictions on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in half a century.'

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/10/17/the-race-that-cant-be-won-jessica-t-mathews/