I can not fathom how #Ukraine will defeat Russia on the battlefield
So, what's the end game?
@Geri Ukraine would defeat Russia, only if the West kept up to its promises to impose sanctions and supply arms. But the West doesn't simply fail Ukraine. We fail ourselves, because Russia is already a kingmaker with it's hybrid warfare
@mapto sanctions are simply not working xxx
@Geri sanctions are only as effective as you make them.
Kamil Galeev has been very good at documenting this.
Unfortunately, he's on ex-twitter and substack only. Here's what I think is an acceptable way of reading him
https://threadreaderapp.com/scrolly/1501676859741904898
I recommend him as a way to understand Ruskiy Mir. Goes without saying that he's to be read critically. Even though he's very informed historically and a good narrator, his way of thinking has its own Russian biases.
@mapto @Geri Fundamental to this was his threads/articles describing how Russia functions as mafia state, drawing on parallels with Mexican cartels. Tl;Dr: such organisations prefer extraction or farming because it doesn't require complexities of production, manufacturing and distribution... Which needs effective managers. Such people aren't motivated by violence, which is the mafia's only tool.
