The new Railways Bill absolutely does not fuck about.

Expiring franchises cannot be extended or awarded, except to companies fully owned by the government, or jointly owned by the governments of the UK and either Scotland or Wales.

Franchise expires? Public operator. No retender.

Franchise goes bankrupt or hands it back? Public operator. No retender.

That's going to cause some potential short-term fuckery by the TOCs. But its not like they were investing for the future of the railways anyway