@vnarek

I dont think people wanting to do low-paid jobs is really a good argument. Most people would probably love to do a low-paid job that requires little skill im sure... hell most people would probably love a job where they watch TV all day too.. just because you want that sort of job doesnt mean society has an obligation to pay you for it.

As for us needing such jobs... somewhat, for now, but they are quickly being replaced by technology. but the fact is taht there are clearly more people who want to do those jobs than there is money to pay them well. thats exactly why their low paid. So we still need to get most people away from performing such jobs.

I feel most low-skill jobs should be focused on people who are handicapped and really cant do normal jobs. Those people need jobs within their means but we dont need people doing these jobs en masse.

@adi_k

@freemo the market is designed to, as much as possible, turn the revenue from labour into revenue from capital, that's why the Gini-coefficient ALWAYS goes up unless something catastrophic happens like a collapse;
Of course the value of low skill labour is going down, but that's a huge problem! Having most of your needs met by the market instead of voting is a GOOD thing! but if the trend continues then your voting power becomes more influential than your monetary power, UBI is a way to keep you away from NEEDING to vote to maintain yourself and instead rely on the market _even when it's distributive component is insufficient_ it's a way to REDUCE reliance on government.

@adi_k Cant say i agree

The market is designed to ensure the people who continually invest in themselves to have the most marketable (needed) skills are the ones who generate the income.

Sure business owners make a lot of money, but then we have the best programmers in the world (just workers) making 300K a year too.

I'd argue wealth distribution, will always follow the distribution of people who have those marketable skills. Meaning you will always see people who are simple labourers with little or no skills (skills that dont require a life time of study) will be low income, and those who do invest a lifetime of study into their skills will be high income. The latter being a small portion of the population is exactly why wealth disparity is very high. We are probably talking 1% of the population who are actually motivated enough to invest in their own skills to that extent.

The geni index doesnt "always go up" it just tends towards the distribution i mentioned and usually other artificial wealth distribution schemes are employed to slow it reaching that point. In other words, with no social programs of any kind eventually the geniindex would have settled but we just never get there.

My solution is to enact a form of welfare that tries to change that dynamic. To ensure people get the sort of assistance they need to more than 1% of the population are pursuing being highly skilled in the first place.

@freemo "can't say I agree[..]market designed to reward those who self-invest[..] sure the rich make money but some programmers (workers) earn 300k.."
Could you name me any significant period of time where the "earnings from capital/earnings from labour" actually went DOWN? Would you ever invest in automation that actually made you rely on MORE expensive and numerous workers for the same productivity?

I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying but I'm making a more precise and specific claim, the sample does not address the statistical trend. The 300k programmer is part of the equation, he plugs more holes than he creates in the capital concentration bucket, which is why he is paid 300k.

The ability to make money using capital and with less labour is actually not a bad thing, but its benefits are way too concentrated, the amount of influence is starting to significantly change policy and government, regardless of whether it is the democrats or the republicans in power the ruling class always wins.

@adi_k yes, as I said the geni coeffecient in the USA decreased significantly from 1930 - 1970

Automation has been going on for thousands of years. It is generally a myth that it hurts the economy in the way you describe when you really think about it. The thing is most of us are really poor at understanding or identifying automation historically, partly because we see it as so common place today.

For example one of the earlier forms of automation would be sewage and plumbing. It used to be that we dug holes and hired people to dig those holes and literally in some cases haul carts of poop from one place to another. But then plumbing was invented, basically a form of automation. Now instead of hole diggers or people with carts hauling human waste we had pipes that did it all automatically. Yet as always the economy kept chugging along and jobs just changing hand. Instead of people with carts now we have plumbers, and metal workers, and people in iron mines to make the pipes, some of them became city engineers, and othes just moved on to other jobs.

Automation at the level we see today (but in very different forms) have been going on for thousands of years, its not the issue people think it is, in the end jobs will always keep existing they will just move from low skill to high skill.

@freemo the automation argument is completely valid,The automation claim is simple:

1. Humans have only 2 things to offer in terms of productive potential: physical and cognitive labour.

2. _ALL_ physical labour has been automated, so people moved to cognitive tasks like gardening and scientific research.
(Notice gardening is under cognitive labour, the component of gardening that is yet to be automated is the cognitive component, the physical component of that job can be done for less than a cent an hour.

3. Computers start to automate cognitive tasks too, so people start to move from low degree of freedom tasks to higher degrees of freedom. (DOF has nothing to do with what people find difficult ex: multiplying two million digit numbers has a lower degree of freedom than recognizing a cat in an image)

4. Humans have a limited number of DOF to offer, there is nothing to say that AI will stop before that limit, more likely it will proceed way beyond that.

5. Unemployment will become a problem waaay before the scenario in (4.) We have to remember that during previous automation waves there were mass riots and a lot of suicides.

6. *And this is the most important point, the market has attack record of _never_ catering to people without productive potential* .

Thus UBI, or at the very least we better start experimenting with alternative economic models till we find something that is resilient to large portions of the population being _unemployable_
all technological improvement we had for horses ( wheel, carriages, leaf springs, suspension) INCREASED need for horses up _untill_ we made cars.
The same with humans, automation of certain tasks/new technology opens up the market for _new_ tasks, ( computers opened up coding) while making other tasks obsolete.

@adi_k Even intellectual automation is nothing new. It started with the abacus a long time ago.

what we generally find is that the tools that automate intellectual persuits largely act to enhance some human actor rather than replace it..

Google can be seen as replacing the intellectual labour of librarians, but in reality it just enhanced peoples ability to do research and improved humans intellectual persuits for the most part. Calculators arent much different.

But the idea that it somehow creates unemployment isnt really the reality of it. It doesnt increase unemployment int he least, only shifts it from one set of skills to another. We dont need librarians anymore but having good google skills is needed for a job all the same, and in many ways has created more jobs than it has destroyed.

The argument mostly relies on some imagined future that is on the horizon, but the fact is, its not the trend we are seeing. for all the talk of automation taking over jobs for years now the end result is more as I described, one sector disapears as other new sectors are created, the overall number of jobs is about the same, well technically it has gone up!

What we do see however is this increasing automation increases our ability to generate wealth, and the standard of living of even thelowest class of people in our society actually has continually increased as a result of this

In short I dont think the trends you describe are reflected onr eality. Its a narrative you hear based in fear but is historically not nearly as unique as people might think.

@freemo every technology we've had for horses (wheel, carriages, suspension, leaf springs) made horses MORE in demand, up UNTILL we made cars, now horses are no longer an important contributor to the economy, so too for humans, AI is to people what cars are to horses.

@adi_k except for the fact that horses didnt build and own the cars, nor are they the ones driving it.. which is the key difference.

AI generates wealth FOR us. At least until some immaginary point where they overthrow their humans and make us slaves :)

@freemo The automation claim is simple:

1. Humans have only 2 things to offer in terms of productive potential: physical and cognitive labour.

2. _ALL_ physical labour has been automated, so people moved to cognitive tasks like gardening and scientific research.
(Notice gardening is under cognitive labour, the component of gardening that is yet to be automated is the cognitive component, the physical component of that job can be done for less than a cent an hour.

[...1/3]

@freemo 3. Computers start to automate cognitive tasks too, so people start to move from low degree of freedom tasks to higher degrees of freedom. (DOF has nothing to do with what people find difficult ex: multiplying two million digit numbers has a lower degree of freedom than recognizing a cat in an image)

4. Humans have a limited number of DOF to offer, there is nothing to say that AI will stop before that limit, more likely it will proceed way beyond that.

5. Unemployment will become a problem waaay before the scenario in (4.) We have to remember that during previous automation waves there were mass riots and a lot of suicides.

[..2/3]

@freemo 6. *And this is the most important point, the market has attack record of _never_ catering to people without productive potential* .

Thus UBI, or at the very least we better start experimenting with alternative economic models till we find something that is resilient to large portions of the population being _unemployable_

@adi_k btw int he USa the geni coeffecient decreased from 1930 to 1970.. So unless you are suggesting that there was a constant catastrophic economic collapse continually for 40 years in the USA I would say that alone disproves the assertion that it always goes up.

@freemo wait hold on you're looking at the Gini-coefficient by family/household; do you see the same in individual Gini-coefficient?

@adi_k its individual based. In fact if you look at chargs of Gini coefficient across many countries at once you will notice some countries go up, many do in fact go down over long periods of time, and many stay about the same.

Any cursory look at the gini index over time would quickly show that your assertion that it always goes up except during catastrophe is patently false.

For example France, Norway, and Mexico have all had their Gini Index decreasing from the mid 1900's to today.. 70 years of consistently (mostly) going down.

@freemo @adi_k I don't think that most of the people want to do these kind of jobs, but maybe I just live in my little social bubble.. 😄 Okay, but this is a stretch. Watching tv is not a job. You are not contributing to society nor you are generating profits and not every low paid job is automatically low skill job. I know you are not saying that but I mentioned it just to be sure.

I agree that we need to tackle this low skill job by education for sure.

@vnarek

Obviously watching TV isnt a job. My point was simply that what people want to do as a job doesnt matter, we arent, or at least should not, try to be giving people whatever job they want and then try to throw money at them to make it "fair"... If you arent paid enough for a certain job then the job is clearly either not very critical, or more people want to do the job than we need doing it.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k
I had problem with watching TV example, because I don't think it represents my argument well. I am not saying that we should force some jobs to exist just so somebody could do them, but if someone is doing job that is useful, critical and can't be done by robots right now he should
not live on the line of poverty.

This is a problem that wealth distribution tries to solve, atleast in my opinion and as I said there are jobs that are hard as f and still are not paid well (in my country).

@vnarek

If people are doing a job that is in demand, then they will be paid well.

If someone isnt paid well it means that fewer people need the job done than people want to do it.

Watching TV is occasionally a job (people get paid for reviewing TV shows is a thing).. but they get paid very little because, well, anyone is willing to do it. But if you want to be part of a focus group, they will pay you.

Its a good example because while there is a need for the job, and people do pay for it, far more people are willing to do it than people need it done for them.. so its low paid... just as it should be.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Watching TV and reviewing TV shows is again not the same thing I know it sounds pesky, but one is a job (produces review of the show) and one just consumes. And I would said it is a high skill job (not everyone has the knowledge of doing the review). If its a full time job and contributes to the community, it should be payed enought to keep someone out of poverty (directly or indirectly). This is more my personal belief.

@vnarek

I dont think that just because someone is working full time and contributes minimally to the community (does a job we dont really need them doing because we have too many people doing it already) should keep someone out of poverty.

If youw ant to stay out of poverty you should be expected to do jobs that society needs done to a great enough extent that society would pay well for it in the first place. If the job doesnt pay well then there is a low need in society for workers to do such a job.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Yeah that seems reasonable in this concrete example. Still jobs like storeman, teachers are paid badly even though they contribute a lot to the society. We need them, they are full time jobs and people doing them are not paid well according to contributions to the community.

@vnarek

A doctorial professor makes, on average, 141K in the USA, I'd say thats pretty damn good.

Remember its not just about how important the position is, its also about how skilled. High skilled positions will pay more since it takes more effort to do it.

Compare the above figure to a public school teacher at a remedial level and they only make 30K not 141K, huge difference. Sure we still need remedial school teachers, but it doesnt take nearly as much skill to be one.

There are two ways to solve that, one is to ensure more people are highly skilled, thus more wealth is generated and less competition for lower paying jobs. thus you will see less disparity as demands balance out

Or two, increase the skill we demand from teachers in the first place, which would also drive higher pay

But that would also start to get into a huge tangent around restructuring the education system in the first place. Currently I think in all countries we set the bar so low on education at the lower levels that the vast majority of children never reach their potential. a lot of this has to do with teach techniques.. but again this is a tangent.

Most kids could be doing college level work by middle school if they had teachers who provided the right education IMO.. but as I said, we are way below our poential there.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k I would say people in remedial level are doing much harder job than their paycheck tells. Even harder than doctorial professors do (it is much easier to work with adults than with children I would say). Should we take that into account at all when we pay them?

@vnarek

No I dont think how hard the job is should directly effect what we pay them. If it is truly a harder job than doctorial work (which I dont think it is, not in terms of skill-difficulty anyway) then that would be reflected in the pay already.

I'd imagine that the vast majority of grade school teachers would be completely incapable of even doing a doctorial professor position at all. It is signfiicantly more difficult to the point it would not even be doable for most of them.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Yeah It is definitely harder to get to that knowledge level so you can execute that job properly, but overall work you do day to day is much harder for a remidal teacher.

@vnarek

But we really cant evaluate just the day to day effort...

How much effort does the doctorial profressor need to put in day to day learning new material to stay up to date in their field, how many years of effort did they have to put in studying to get to the point they are able to take the position in the first place.

If we compare effort of one job to the other i think we need to consider the overall effort, including training, not just the day to day effort, if we are going to evaluate what is fair.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Do you believe in the capacity of learning? Some people are just better at studying. So for them it is easier than day to day work of remidal teacher. Even if you take efforts to learn into account.

@vnarek I think its undeniable that some people are going to attain a higher education than others.

A person with down syndrom could study their whole life and will likely never be an expert in nuclear physics. I think its safe to say there is some genetic middle ground. People who just arent naturally very inclined to learning certain intellectual persuits.

Thats one reason why I said skills rather than just university. For me the system I propose would also include, say going to school to learn an instrument, or art. There are many types of skills that take a life time to learn, are profitable, and accessable to people who may not be intellectually capable in other areas.

For people who have no potential to learn skills of any kind (lets say a non-speaking autistic person who may be completely non functional) then I do think exceptions should be made for them and welfare should take care of them should they have no family capable of doing so.

But these are rare exceptions.

@freemo Okay this is interesting, but then if those courses would be easier wouldn't it be easier to just stay on welfare indefinitely? I would like to learn to paint, then play some instrument, then learn to manage teams, but still not using those acquired skills for generating profit.

@vnarek Im not sure performing an instrument in a school setting would really be any less enjoyable than doing it for profit.

But one way to address that is to require alls chools attended as part of this welfare program to have co-op structure (which many universities have).. This way working as you would in your chosen profession is part of the schooling itself.

At that point you wouldnt really be avoiding work by going to school anyway, youd still be doing work (along side school) but paid less for it.

@vnarek the Finland result is yet to come, but we already have an example of UBI in Alaska, and they love it. It allows for a sort of independence becaise there's always this safety-net you can rely on. that reduces the desperation of absolute poverty, ask yourself, do the desperate really make the best of decisions?

@adi_k

In my expiernce people arent very good at getting out of these situations on their own.

I have spent a huge portion of my life trying to help others.. Generally people who were homeless I took into my home and try get them on their feet many times, usually for years on end.

One thing has become clear to me. the vast majority of people are not very good at fixing their poverty on their own. Most of the people I took in, if i did nothing but just give them free food, shelter and spending money, would not change anything, in a year or ten most would (and were) in the same situation as when I took them in.

I quickly realized that the most effective way to help them is conditional help. I let them know my expectations for them (the end goal), I start by giving them free reign to become self sufficient, what they say they needed I supported financially, then as I see they arent moving towards their goals then i make conditions on them (for example I might demand they apply for at least 5 jobs every day if they want to continue living with me, or I might require they see a psychiatrist).

By making sure the help they got was conditional on the effort they invested in getting out of their situation this ultimately was what was needed to get most people out of their poverty.

Same for a UBI, dumping money in a persons lap is unlikely to get them out of poverty. They will just become dependent on that money and continue not to contribute marketable skills to society. Instead we need to make welfare dependent on the persons effort they put in to gain marketable skills. Then we may see some actual progress.

UBI will never solve these problems, its like a splash of water on a raging fire.

@vnarek

@freemo @vnarek yes the conditional help theiry is what is most intuitive, but the thing is that that sort of conditional help REQUIRES us to spend money on vigilance and a larger bureaucratic force. The opportunity cost of that spend money itself is part of a wastage that at the end UBI will have too, I'm saying if you take into _account_ that too, UBI is more effective; there's also a psychological effect in dependency and scarcity mentality, there was this experiment on indian sugarcane farmers where their IQ and long term planning capacity was markedly reduced when scarcity was introduced

@adi_k

I agree iut does cost more money then just handing someone a wad of cash and saying good luck.

I would not say that is a waste however. That beurocratic expense to ensure there is a reward model in place is not wasteful, it is in fact a good and neccesary use of money.

I am not interested in doing welfare as cheap as possible, I am happy to spend extra money on it if we are actually helping to ensure people get out of their situation rather than just have money to live another month.

The thing is, reward based welfare has never been tried.. we have never made PhDs and all other levels of education free to the poor, so we cant say its ineffective, it has never been done in the way I suggested.

But UBI has been tried countless times from countless countries. The results from those countries as far as I can tell is completely unacceptable. They have done little to nothing to actually getting the poor to be high-skilled. Largely their education/skill set remained mostly unchanged post-UBI

@vnarek

@adi_k

Just to be clear lets look at the actual numbers from UBI around the world.

Finland is probably the best bet, its program was enacted randomly among 2000 people across the whole country (rather than isolated to a specific region as in other experiments). It is also one of the longer and earlier UBI experiments in europe.

So the main question here is, did UBI help people get out of poverty as you suggest it might (more efficiently) or did it just throw money at a problem and solve nothing...

Well compared to control groups the 2000$ on UBI actually had **decreased** income after the experiment compared to the general population on welfare. On average 21 euros less than control groups. The members of the expirement did not sick education or increasing their marketable skills.

In short, they took the money and did nothing to improve their situation, or at least, did less than people who were on traditional welfare.

So yea as I said, a step backwards.

@vnarek

@freemo @vnarek woah! UBI is not an employment program, it's a replacement for welfare! It's to alleviate distress. Finland is not the only place it's been tested, Finland only tested it for 2 years, Alaska has had the most longest standing UBI, and its one of their most favoured policy despite being a red state. The Finland study showed improvements in mental health and generally thought better of their prospects, with mild improvements in employment
https://mobile.twitter.com/kelantutkimus?lang=en
I want to decentralise welfare and REDUCE micromanagement by the government

As I was said, I think employability is on it's way DOWN indefinitely, if I were to be pessimistic, the only employment benefits I see are either
1. They pick low paying jobs they wouldn't otherwise have considered given their newfound security
2. Went back to schooling

If I were to address employment specifically, then we have to look at[..]

@adi_k

releiving distress while making someone forever depednent on government handouts is not an acceptable purpose for welfare.

The purpose of welfare should be viewed as a means to get people out of poverty.

If you are on welfare with no intention of ever getting off of it then you should be under distress.

It is the difference between enabling someone who doesnt have their life in order vs actually helping them.

Employabilty isnt going anyway.. The world is going to keep needing employees forever into the future. The difference is just that we will need high skill people, increasingly so into the future. There will certainly be little to no use for what we see as low skilled people in the near future. All the more reason we need to improve their skills and not just drop money in their lap.

@vnarek

@freemo @vnarek [..contd] if you were to adress employability then you have to compare it to OTHER government programs not to an _ideal_ .. most programs intended at addressing employment have either:
1.made no changes to industry, but gave retrained employees for other jobs.
(Very low effectiveness)
2.made huge changes in industry by, either bringing the economy up or increasing foreign investmen to up the need for the lost jobs
Or
They made requirements on the industry by force

The latter strategy works better and is not a good comparison for UBI,
You either address it individual level or at the industry

@adi_k

Ideally yes, ideally we would compare it to other government programs. But no program in the world uses the model of welfare I proposed (free education at all levels, and a reward based incetives to get people to educate themselves out of poverty)...

Since no such models exist in the real world based off my suggested approach there is no way to compare it to other government programs.

We can however comapre it to the "control" that is, see if it gets people closer or farther way from the goal of employability. As I stated UBi generally has either no impact on a persons employability or it decreases it.. Generally those on UBI do not show increased income compared to those not on UBI in countries where it is experimentally dont side by side.

@vnarek

@freemo @vnarek reward based incentives are the standard for many welfare systems in the US aren't they?
I know that in some states you need to apply for a minimum number of jobs a week to remain on welfare

@adi_k

No not really, that isnt a reward based welfare.. reward based would mean you get 100$ welfare default, but if you go to school and try to get a PhD then the education would be free and your welfare for personal expenses goes from 100$ to 2,000$ for example.

As far as I know there is no reward based system where the welfare you get increases while and if you are increasing your marketability.

Seeking jobs does nothing to increase ones marketability, that is not the sort of behavior i am suggesting welfare should be rewarding.

@vnarek

@freemo @vnarek but then wouldn't there be this incentive to remain in school just for the sake of getting that increment? Goodhart's law is a bitch

@adi_k

Perhaps, thats fine by me. School is hard work and not really a cop out compared to work.. if they want to stay in school longer thats fine by me. Having a highly educated populace is good for all of us.

@vnarek

@freemo @adi_k In the Czech republic we get tax cuts when we are studying. There are stipediums too that pay students with good grades from state welfare. Do you mean this kind of reward based welfare?

@freemo @adi_k I think the problem with this system is that those reward would mostly go to already rich people, because their position is much more stable and they got time and money to study harder.

Some people in Czech do attend school just for tax cuts. There are some schools that are really easy to study even without proper preparation. But this is more of a problem with the education system than your proposal. There is limit 28 years you have education for free then you pay to overcome this.

@vnarek

The whole point of reward based welfare is that if you attend school or other skill training thent he welfare would be generous enough that you would have stable income and plenty of time and money to study harder.

In my eyes if you are currently persuing a PhD for example all your basic needs should be covered so stability is a non issue.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Ah sorry I misunderstood your policy. So you would give them the money to study without any condition other than that they should start attending college? Would you test their result at all? I actually like your idea these are just implementation details.

@vnarek

Thats the idea, as long as you are aquiring marketable skills (for example going to university) then welfare would take care of all your living expenses for that time.

I'm not sure we would test their results, exactly.. thats one approach. The other could be just to ensure that it is accredited schools and make the stipulation that they need to pass (with some allowance for failing once or twice since mistakes do happen).

Perhaps if a person fails more than once they would need to get a letter from their teacher explaining that the teacher felt the student put in their best effort.

I generally feel that for people who are mentally incapable of higher education (say, someone with Down syndrom) then they should be given other types of training specifically suited for them.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k I don't know. I would prefer to proceed with education indefinitely, I think it is overall more fun than working, but maybe it would become so hard that I wouldn't manage to continue.

Interesting, I will think about that.

@vnarek

Do you have expiernce with post-grad education?

Most people I know at the graduate level (and even those at a 4 year university) spend all their time studying they barely have time to sleep. I would hate to go back tot he level of workload I had at university, it was unsustainable IMO.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k I am doing my bachelor degree right know. It is hard, but still really interesting. So now I don't have first hand experience with post-grad education.

Maybe I will change my reasoning when I start my post-grad education.

@vnarek

Even a bachelor degree is a decent amount of work, especially at a university, at least if your going full time.. But then again i think it depends.

In the USA people getting a bachelor degree appear to be worked a lot harder than college in the Netherlands at least. My room mate only had to go to class one or two times a week, he seemed to have it easy by comparison of what I had to do at bachelor level.

@adi_k

@vnarek

The other issue with a time limit is, what do you do when someone exceeds the limit and then needs welfare...

I'd much rather say "eh go back to school for another year then, here is some more money if you do"..

than "oh well you spent 28 years in school and still need help, here is some free money, you can get it now without school at all!"

With a good school system school is hard work, REALLY hard work. Most people should prefer to work than go to school, it would not just be good to educate the public but if structured properly should be a deterrent to being on welfare and incentive to get work with those skills.

@adi_k

@freemo @adi_k Yeah this is not really solved by the main education system in Czechia. I think going forward to the future we would need to adapt to job changes effectively our whole lives. I don't think that limiting education to some time limit is a good idea.

@vnarek

Agreed, and to be fair the educational system as a whole would really need to be reevaluated too.

These sorts of social/economic issues we are trying to solve really require us to fix a lot of problems at every level of society.

I mean hell discrimination alone, if allowed to run rampant in a society, will mean even a well educated minority might not get paid well, for example.. So there are more problems to consider here than just education too... but, one step at a time :)

@adi_k