'It’s not gone. It’s changing. It’s killing': The COVID variants the WHO is watching closely.
#COVIDisNotOver @WHO @mvankerkhove @auscovid19
Full article here: https://euronews.com/next/2023/11/24/its-not-gone-its-changing-its-killing-the-covid-variants-who-is-watching-closely
🇳🇱
Yea its not gone, and never will be. We have to accept its here to stay and just put it in the same category as the flu at the point, just one of those diseases among many we might get. Doesnt mean you take it any less seriously, but we need to accept that diseases dont usually go away and this is in no way unusual in the sense that this too is here to stay and that could have never changed.
Speaking as a COVID-19 research scientist I can tell you yes its here to stay.
AIDS is also here to stay and not eliminated. There are 1.3 million new HIV/AIDS cases world wide each year. In the USA there are fewer cases due to use of condoms but still new cases each year (something on the order of 50,000 new cases a year in the USA).
The black death (plague) also isnt eliminated, we have new cases of it in the USA each year. But since its carried on fleas our modern sanitation has reduced the number of cases significantly, so it is here to stay as well.
The important thing about AIDS and the plague, despite not being eliminated, is these are NOT air borne. They only transfer with close intimate contact of some kind. So while sanitary conditions can greatly reduce (not eliminate them) things like COVID-19 are not at all comparable.
Diseases dont go away usually, AIDS, H1N1, COVID-19 they are here to stay forever. You can wear masks and reduce it to some extent, but the second you stop it will just go right back to baseline (just as stopping wearing condoms would raise AIDS back to baseline).
These diseases are here to stay, forever.
@freemo @britishtechguru @DenisCOVIDinfoguy @auscovid19
1)Dubious. We already saw the Wuhan Lineage effectively die out. A massive propaganda campaign was launched with the onset of Omicron that made pre-cooked bogus claims of attenuation, cross-reactive antibodies, and T-cell immunity.
And sure, there's a trickle of the Wuhan lineage still floating about. MERS pops up and disappears just as fast every now and again, but these Pathogenic Coronaviruses just aren't evolutionarily stable enough
@freemo @britishtechguru @DenisCOVIDinfoguy @auscovid19
2) to be our new normal. Not without assistance, at least.
@britishtechguru @auscovid19 @freemo @DenisCOVIDinfoguy So far there’s nothing to indicate that SARSCOV2 is going to go away. Unfortunately. Its propensity to mutate to avoid immunity suggests the opposite.
Yersinia Pestis never went away. It was the conditions that helped it propagate that improved. Even then the multiple waves of the plague went well beyond a few years.
So far there’s nothing to indicate that SARSCOV2 is going to go away.
Yup
Unfortunately. Its propensity to mutate to avoid immunity suggests the opposite.
True that is a factor but actually not the main reason. There are two more important reasons:
1) The human immune system attenuates to the same strain over time. So even if there is no mutation you can get the same strain multiple times over relatively short periods (year or two)
2)A large portion of people who catch covid are contagious but completely aymptomatic. I myself have had it 7 times (verified) and only could tell I had it at all once
Yersinia Pestis never went away. It was the conditions that helped it propagate that improved. Even then the multiple waves of the plague went well beyond a few years.
Not to mention damn near wiped out the bulk of civilization several times over in the process.
@freemo @auscandoc @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy
Perhaps these diseases are all appearing suddenly - SARS, MERS, AIDS, Covid-19 etc as a response to overpopulation?
@britishtechguru @freemo @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy Yes increased human and animal reservoir interface because of our encroachment is a significant factor. All those you mention had this as a factor.
Climate change is also a factor.
Overpopulation certainly helps spread diseases much faster. No doubt there.
@freemo @auscandoc @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy
From what I heard, Aids is a variant of Green Monkey Virus and Aids itself can be traced back to samples from the 50s. It's just that it was only in the 80s that it took off and only in about 84 that it was identified.
But... if it originated with Green Monkey Virus then it's as stated due to encroachment on animal habitats and overpopulation by humans.
We are heading for a mass extinction whether we like it or not.
@freemo @auscandoc @britishtechguru @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy
Engineering, it took a change in civil engineering systems, moving garbage to dump sites in a short time, for example.
@freemo @britishtechguru @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy All that as well… you had more characters than me :).
@auscandoc @britishtechguru @auscovid19 @freemo @DenisCOVIDinfoguy in the Uk we remain at 500-600 covid deaths/ month, long covid though less frequent per infection rate/million has gone up due to increased infectivity. We are at the start when this is admitted we might start doing some rational things
@DaveFernig @auscandoc @auscovid19 @freemo @DenisCOVIDinfoguy
People just behave like idiots aorund Covid. I have no idea why. My workmate is down with RSV right now. I'm OK because I always wear a mask. She never wears one.
COVID has too many features of something you cant get rid of:
1) fast immunity attenuation, people can get reinfected within months of exposure
2) Large number of asymptomatic patiens, so easy avoids detection.
3) It is airborne, as in, can transmit on droplets.
4) It is fairly contagious
You cant have those features and expect to eliminate it.
@freemo @britishtechguru @auscandoc @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy sure you can. Air filtration in places where people congregate plus masks. Air filtration in primate schools without masks reduces transmission to zero. It is simply a question of reducing concentrations below a threshold. Outdoors = dilution
@DaveFernig @freemo @britishtechguru @auscovid19 @DenisCOVIDinfoguy I’ve seen data that filtration in primary schools without masks reduces transmission but not seen “to zero”. Do you have the data for that?
Nope, while those measures can reduce the spread and are fine measures to take. They would not, unfortunately eliminate it.
@freemo @DenisCOVIDinfoguy @auscovid19
I disagree that it's here to stay. These things often burn themselves out after a few years. They don't always - Aids for example - but they can - Black Death for example.