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LOL forget about polls, you want to know the chance to win look at the odds vegas is giving on the election. I dont want to see Trump be president but as of yesterday Trump was odds to favorite by a large margin. So regardless of who you may like, i hope you are ready for the civil unrest that is coming either way...
@freemo where do you find those bets?
@aosinski I think it depends on the type of betting. If its like horse betting where the spread is defined by the number of bets to ensure the house wins no matter what, then yes. But when the odds are calculated by the housae and fixed I'd argue it is more reliable since the house stands to loose a lot of money, so they are compelled to make accurate predictions or else loose tons of money.
@freemo there's a good argument to be made that betting markets are not really that great. Crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, but I´d say that for this current election cycle there's too much dumb money and markets can definitely have ideological skew.
For a real ¨market¨ you´d likely need a long-term audience with established information-gathering techniques, not one-timers whose methodology is even worse than most pollsters who will admit they have less information than ever.