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📖 "Bestseller" books are based on the number of books sold TO bookstores not the number of books bought BY individuals.

So a lot of it comes down to the publishers convincing bookstores that a given book will sell well so they should buy more of them.

invidious.jing.rocks/watch?v=A

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Everyone forgets that the sciences were essentially considered magic until fairly recently, math included.

"Proof by turning it over" is the best math proof I've heard.

He totally forgot to mention the paradox:
For each individual bingo-sheet, the chance for a horizontal line is the same as for a vertical one.
But if you play against other people, the chance of someone's horizontal row winning first increases. Up to 73% when you play against all the other existing bingo cards.

Yeah exactly - people are saying it's entirely intuitive when you know the distribution, but it's incredibly dependent on the parameters of the paper. As they themselves state, their simulation of 1,000 cards only got to 2:1. Intuition takes us in two different-but-similarly-wrong directions here, very cool.

it's not the odds of your bingo card getting a horizontal versus vertical first it's the odds of whoever gets done first having that

It depends on how the cards were generated. If Matt generated the cards in a manner that is equivalent to taking the 75 possibilities, grouping them into 5 sub-groups of 15, and having each subgroup correspond to a column, then the same thing holds.

But of course Matt's behavior is not a sequence of 75 equally likely things, so that breaks it.

"How can that be?" "Oh they're not uniformly distributed."

Source: The Bingo your 3× more likely to win

invidious.jing.rocks/watch?v=A

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