#physics #weather **Somebody has responded** Yeah, I can go on for another day! I was thinking of stopping this stuff.

_Hi.I found your blog via Mastodon. And I find it fascinating. But of course, I don't learn any geophysic background. And I'm in Europe. Would you care to provide a little more explanation about why El Nino is not in the forecast? And why it won't change before 6 months? And why 20 years (this is a very loooong forecast, isn't?)
Thanks for sharing your expertise!

Blogger Harold Asmis said...
I have more background on the sidebar -- my geophysics pages. In a tiktok nutshell, we have had a big temperature cycles in the far and near past. There was a lot of ink spilled on why the current warm rise was not a cycle, but the physics hypothesis goes with the 'continuity hypothesis' of geology, and says it is just another cycle.
This is against the 'carbon thermal blanket hypothesis' which physics says is proven false. The hypothesis of cycles has the mechanism of ocean currents changing. They stay the same for a long time and then suddenly change, in a chaotic manner. However, when they are in the process of changing, you see little signs in the ocean currents. Right now, we have a very strong cold current feeding the Pacific Belt. Formerly, this has been a short rebound of El Nino, and the past ones can be seen in the old current maps.
El Nino is a reverse of the main westerly current on the Pacific belt. It has a huge effect on the current, and this is the primary force. For historic times, it was going off every 7 years or so, and then a rebound La Nina. But we are not in Kansas any more, and there have been major changes. I am looking for a sign of reversal. It has the mechanism of 'building up' heat around Indonesia. There is no sign of it, so I am going with previous cycles and say 20 years, at minimum. There is a chance we have gone to a major 'Little Ice Age' cycle and that is 300 years._

**That is way too long for the tiktok generation. They can stick to fantasy.**