I love my current project, I think of it as my third startup, but I also feel like the guy in Jaws when he said "we're gonna need a bigger boat." https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-road-not-taken-is-guaranteed-minimum-income/
Serious question: do we need more studies? UBI studies have been done, repeatedly, and show clear benefits.
Or would that 50M be better spent directly on political lobbying to enact the necessary legislation?
@nikclayton political lobbying is the same as burning the money these days. Would you rather do that.. or actual science that puts the money in the hands of the desperately poor?
I think his point is "the actual science is already done, and they are ignoring it. Shouldn't we focus on making them stop ignoring it?".
@jgg @codinghorror Indeed.
That you or I have the money to fund things like this is ultimately a political failure that needs to be addressed.
Philanthropic millionaires distributing money is no substitute for a fairer tax code.
@nikclayton @jgg no one is saying otherwise. When in doubt, I will put my money in the hands of people who desperately need it.. and generate OVERWHELMING amounts of sound scientific evidence that this works. Problem is, the red state brigade doesn't believe in science. Tell me how I fix that, and I will try my best.
@codinghorror @jgg If "the red state brigade doesn't believe in science" then why do you think more science is going to solve the problem?
Wouldn't funding political efforts to turn the red states/counties blue be more effective?
I'm not saying it has to be an either/or choice. But your blog post that started this thread made no mention of any sort of political effort alongside direct distribution of cash.
@nikclayton @codinghorror @jgg Perhaps that political effort is not necessary. From a scientific point of view, the traditional political lobbying has also been proven to hardly make a difference. In the end, I suspect that the only way to change the political situation is to vote differently. Empowering people to do so by funding _them_ instead of the politicians is at least an effort worth trying.
@mauritslamers @codinghorror @jgg
How do you get politicians to vote for what you want without either (a) standing for election yourself, or (b) lobbying people who are either standing for election, or already in office?
For example, 83% of US voters support Medicaid (https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/06/17/nx-s1-5435312/medicaid-cuts-big-beautiful-bill-trump-kff-poll).
This means **nothing** if they have no one to vote for who also supports it.
@nikclayton @mauritslamers @codinghorror
Politically speaking, not voting is always the worst possible strategy.
@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers look up this story. It’s not well known, but it should be. This alone is why our third GMI study is in Mississippi. I met the Dahmer family. Incredibly inspiring people.
@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers Nik, I'm happy to put you on the phone with Dennis Dahmer if you want to truly understand all this. I talk to him regularly. Just send me an email and I'll set it up for you.
@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers Nik, you had so very many opinions about all this that you shared at quite some length, so your silence here is striking.
@codinghorror @jgg @mauritslamers
My dude. It's the weekend. I'm busy.
I'm starting to understand why you're so enamoured with AI - you start spiraling when you hear anything other than "You're absolutely right".
Shit like this (and your recent AI thread) is why people don't like techbros.
@codinghorror @jgg @mauritslamers
The questions I've asked you have been met with deflections, non sequiturs, claims you're different because you're "elite", falling back on "look at all this money I have, some of which I'm donating, I'm the good guy". Or my personal favourite, claim you'll be able to do all the necessary research in 15 minutes.
You're giving the rest of us a bad name.
@codinghorror @jgg @mauritslamers
**We know UBI works**, you link to some of the studies in the blog post. There are political efforts already underway across the US to translate that information into useful political action, in particular the trifecta of https://www.mayorsforagi.org/,
https://countiesforaguaranteedincome.org/, and https://www.legislatorsforagi.org/.
As https://www.texastribune.org/2024/04/23/texas-supreme-court-guaranteed-income/ demonstrates, the problem is not one of "We need more research".
@nikclayton @jgg @mauritslamers also ask the red state brigade, which currently controls (almost) our entire political system, whether "we know UBI works" -- get back to me when you've done that, ok? Good luck, my friend... You're gonna need it.
@nikclayton @jgg @mauritslamers I mean, honestly, if you think you single-handedly propose a way to fix all this on the political side, please tell us how to do that, step by step. I'll be waiting patiently here for your response... while we do the (rigorous, fully open data) science and put actual money in the hands of the desperately poor.
@codinghorror @jgg @mauritslamers
Oh thank God, it's been two days without hearing from you, and I was beginning to think that your silence here was striking.
> please tell us how to do that, step by step.
1. Contact the organisations I mentioned earlier, for example "Mayors for Guaranteed Income", https://www.mayorsforagi.org/
2. Say "I have USD 50 million, how can I help you achieve your goals?"
3. Listen!
4. Decide whether you want to contribute.
@nikclayton @jgg @mauritslamers yeah, news flash Nik Clayton, we've been talking to them since the very beginning. Ask Mr. Tubbs himself if you don't believe me. G'wan, I dare you. I triple dog dare you! But that's not our lane. We don't work at the town level. We work at the county level. And we will achieve our goals.
But since you seem to know everything about everything, why don't you just do it all yourself? I mean, what's stopping you, Nik? Explain it in a way all of us can understand.
@codinghorror @nikclayton @mauritslamers
Goals are the same, disagreements are about statrategy.
I think both strategies are complementary, no need to choose. Which one should be prioritary? I don't know, nor I think anybody really does.
Let's decide each one of us where we want to put our efforts, since all of it contributes to the goal. And let's not argue about optimization. If you don't have reliable metrics, any optimization is very likely to be premature.
Debating is important and nice to a point, but I think you two are at the verge of drawing blood, which goes against your mutual goal. Put the effort where it contributes, folks.
Peace.
