Slow and methodical seems to be the Russian tactics in the SMO.

Just to give a report on what is going on in the Ukraine based on my reading:

1) Suddenly the US has come to the realisation that its bloated over capital investment arms industry isn't that great. The Ukraine war has stretched the US supply chain in such a way that NATO is at risk of not being able to arm its self.

washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/3/has-america-almost-depleted-its-supply-of-essentia/

2) The Russian Air force hit with high-precision air strikes at the Kanatovo military airfield near Kirovograd, a large artillery depot in Nikolaev and a fuel depot in Zhovtneve. Also a number of other targets in western Ukraine

3) In total, since 24 February 22, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost 149 aircraft, 112 helicopters, 726 drones, 288 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2834 units of armoured vehicles, 325 MLRS, 1306 field guns and mortars, as well as 2646 units of special military vehicles. That is more than 75% of their equipment. The 150 US & co supplied artillery pieces are about 1/8 of their lost artillery pieces.

4) Fierce fighting continues in Popasna. There are also reports of heavy fighting in the Orekhovo

5) Ukrainian forces entrenched in Mariupol's Azovstal plant said they would no longer release detained civilians. They offered to exchange civilians under the scheme of 15 people per ton of food and medicine. According to unverified data, there may be more than 200 civilians in the catacombs of the plant, including women, children and the elderly.

6) Ukraine continue to fight the war assuming that a new NATO trained army will commence a counter attack in June with Russia exhausted. This is a strange assumption to makegiven the current course of the war.

7) Russian troops gained a foothold on the left bank of the Oskol reservoir in the south-east of the Kharkiv and continue the offensive. Will likely soon begin an assault on Kharkiv

@Aether "Slow and methodical" goes against logic though, doesn't it? The more time breaking the eastern front takes, the more advanced western weapons and training the new Ukranian recruits currently in training will have gotten.

@Jens_Rasmussen @Aether not really

the more time goes on the more ukraine's internal supply lines will be fucked by precision strikes

it doesn't matter if the west can dump infinity weapons at the border if they can't get where they're needed

@deprecated_ii @Aether We'll see. If Ukranians couldn't get anything to the eastern front then it would have collapsed weeks ago, but that's not the case.

@Jens_Rasmussen @Aether I don't know why you would claim that, you have no idea what supplies they had in place.

Obviously their logistical situation will not improve, and it is being actively attacked. Ergo, it will get worse.

@deprecated_ii @Aether Vietnamese troops during the Vietnam war had their supply lines bombed much harder than the Ukrainians currently do, and still managed to get stuff through, so I'm not certain the logistical situation will deteriorate quickly.

But I am also referring to the fact that Ukraine is building up a "second force" in the west and the current force in the east is mostly intended to buy as much time as possible. If the Russians can strike at western Ukraine no-problem then they certainly aren't making as much use of it as they could be doing.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether Vietnam also lost people in the millions ukraine cant handle that

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether Zelensky will fight to the last Ukranian, and then some.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether Thats totally unsustainable and everyone knows it.

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether Soviet mindset from WWII exists in both Ukrainians and Russians.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether This may come as a shock but it didnt really work for the soviets. without the allies massive manufacturing base and commiting massive armies too fight germany. Guess what we dont have anymore.

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether But Ukraine does have the entire west as a manufacturing base, the west doesn't even need to save anything for themselves if they're not active participants.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether The west doesnt have a manufacturing base retard

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether Then where do all the western weapons come from?

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether A wharehouse where white men built and put them where theyve been sitting for 30 years and a mestizo or negro pulled them out and put em on a plane

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether Well, you're wrong.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Aether How the fuck would you know?

@Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether The NLAW launchers that the Ukrainian army have gotten in large numbers were practically all made in the last decade.

@Jens_Rasmussen @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether Doesn't matter if they made them last year, if they shut down the production line then they can't bring back manufacturing very quickly. Without some active order for more of the weapon system, they won't keep all those qualified personnel waiting around for business, so they move on, sometimes in the company, often outside where they're gone for good.

When they shut down the F-22 prematurely they promised they would document and retain absolutely everything, so they could jump right in again if they chose to make the assembly line up again. Even that critical project, one where they were intentionally staving off the rot, utterly failed. It's a pipe dream, something like $20 billion to even start to re-train people.

If they weren't actively producing the weapon type in January, then it's not going to be available any time soon, I'd expect a 2 to 5 year lead time before you would have new rockets in hand. THey've been happy to send older stock out of their own armory, like handing down their used car since daddy government promised a brand new car for them.

There are so many logistical issues involved wwith quickly manufacturing even the simpler wire guided munitions it's basically a fantasy to say "well, just like, make more!"

@WashedOutGundamPilot @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether But production lines haven't been shut down in most cases when it comes to weapon shipments for Ukraine. Leopard 2 tanks, NLAW launchers and Caesar artillery all currently produced weapons systems. They're generally small and limited, sure, but if you pool all of NATO's peacetime war material production into one Ukrainian bucket that bucket will still be pretty fucking full.
I will agree when people say that the biggest difficulty will be training Ukrainians in usage of the weapons, particularly more advanced things like pilots for aircraft will be difficult. Running out of capable Ukrainians might also be an issue, but I think mercenaries and "volunteers" can be used by NATO to alleviate that somewhat.

@Jens_Rasmussen @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether It's not that much stuff though, they make a big show out of what they're sending but if you look at the numbers they aren't really enough to shift things all that much, even assuming you have the level of skill and training needed to operate this shit.

I think your'e buying into the headlines and stated truth too much and missing the actual loss of capability on the ground. Kind of like how rich retards will brag about their firebreathing new car at "500 horsepower, oh shit", but when you put it on the dyno it comes out to 360 to their shame and dismay. Sure, 500 is nominal. At sea level. At the crank. Brand new. At peak. With the right air density. Factor in drivetrain loss, traction, and the end result seems underperforming.

@WashedOutGundamPilot @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether I'm mostly just countersignaling Russia-enjoyers because their promises/expectations have repeatedly let me down. This way I'll also only be positively surprised if/when proven wrong.

>Local man is wrong on purpose in order to keep himself from having too high expectations

@Jens_Rasmussen @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether The fact that russia is positioned so much better than america has continued to surprise and horrify me. It's not like I want to take the russian side, I'm just evaluating things like I would want someone to look at conflicts I'm involved with. I certainly never wanted to root for them, but this is a welcome teachign moment for many shortcomings ignored and imposed on our country. Seeing reality finally, blessedly imposed upon these fools is a welcome change.

The russkies have pretty much been liquidating their old stocks of weaponry held for decades, something they always saved for a rainy day. Yanks don't do that, they think it's a waste of money and the boomer politician class truly believes "american manufacturing will win the day". Telling these old timers that we can't just pump out anything we need is met with blank stares.

You see, the boomers here have a very silly notion that whatever stands in your way can be overcome if you just TRY HARDER. They'll even recite old poems they memorized in 4th grade about Casey at the bat. The fact that they can't do that anymore, can't just walk to the warehouse district, beg/borrow/steal some machine tools, and start spinning up MANPADS because there's simply no one making the requisite electronics for them doesn't compute.

It's a collective mass delusion, as if the second a war actually kicks up we'll all put on our patriotic hats and sign up at the nearest recruiting station while our wives and mothers happily go weld B-25's and sherman tanks all day.

@WashedOutGundamPilot @Boomerman @deprecated_ii @Aether >the boomers here have a very silly notion that whatever stands in your way can be overcome if you just TRY HARDER
Boomers are the real Gurren Lagann protagonists?

As for making the electronics; so long as China remains neutral and Korea+Japan+Taiwan allied to NATO, the supply of electronics is secured. The government can always pay more than the broad civilian market, so there might be a believable "no available electronics" if it was literally impossible to buy PC parts or the like, and not just difficult.

@Jens_Rasmussen @WashedOutGundamPilot @Boomerman @Aether

@deprecated_ii @WashedOutGundamPilot @Boomerman @Aether Am I supposed to believe that not a single MANPAD design has been in production in the west for 20 years?
On the other hand, bureaucratic incompetence could very well make that claim believable.

@Jens_Rasmussen @deprecated_ii @Boomerman @Aether I'm telling you that if your goal is to have new production equipment, made and shipped to arrive in their hands by year's end, it's simply impossible unless they were already producing them before the war began.

If they were, they might be able to sweet talk their current contract holders and reassign their output to ukraine. That's it, that's the best we can offer.

America doesn't have the surplus experts, the talented technicians, the engineering knowhow, (not to mention the insane amount of red tape needed to kick start a new factory) in order to rush anything to production any more. There's a LOT that goes into those things, which has always been a critique they brushed off. They like their fancy toys, never mind the fact each one costs a quarter of a million dollars and requires a handful of chinese parts in order to produce it. Complexity could maybe, possibly be surmountable with the right human capital, but we lack the motivation and talent required. Our management has selected against it for 20 years now. It's only incompetent yes men by and large.

I heard the current estimate for the Stinger isn't just because "oh, we need a redesign on the electronics first", but more along the lines of "oh fugg we can't buy the electronics we need for it, shit guys can you redesign it with stuff we can get our hands on?!?!"

I think the next batch of stingers can be expected in 2025....which, if you're familiar with the industry, likely means 2032.

(Also fun fact, the F-35 is not actually in full production yet. It hasn't completed its testing. There was a report this week showing how behind the program is. I think it was supposed to be through with it by 2017)

@WashedOutGundamPilot @deprecated_ii @Boomerman @Aether >if your goal is to have new production equipment, made and shipped to arrive in their hands by year's end, it's simply impossible
I'm aware of that.
>unless they were already producing them before the war began
This is what I'm talking about.

>If they were, they might be able to sweet talk their current contract holders and reassign their output to ukraine
Sweet talk? That's just a government decree and perhaps some - made out of thin air - cash as a "we're sorry", which the buyers not actively involved in war will most likely happily take.

>America doesn't have the surplus experts, the talented technicians, the engineering knowhow etc.
I know, and I agree. But America is vast and you can find remnants of talent still. This applies in larger scale as well, and since this Ukrainian thing isn't just an American intervention unlike most (all?) of what we've seen in recent decades, but instead all of NATO combined then there's bound to be some vestiges of talent left here and there. Unfortunately for us.

@Jens_Rasmussen @WashedOutGundamPilot @deprecated_ii @Boomerman @Aether lol Google technician shortage this country has very little human capital
they barely scraping up enough trades to keep things going