Lord Alveric @lordalveric@qoto.org
The dreams of AGI. The reality that we still suck.
Joined Oct 2018
@freemo As opposed to the huge costs of these lockdowns? Again, this is a linear programming problem in its simplest form.
What is the optimal solution among may variables, some known, some unknown, or perhaps known only to a level of uncertainty?
Those of us in our field can easily work from home. Those in retail and in the restaurant business, and other "non-essential" service type jobs, manufacturing, etc., are out of a job right now, or soon will be.
The greatest and most devastating impact will be those at the lower-end of the economic spectrum. If the lockdown is much longer than just a couple of months, there will be blood in the streets.
@freemo I know it will not be easy, but anything would be better than these annoying lockdowns that are everywhere right now.
@freemo I am speaking basically to lockdowns, NOT quarantines. And yes, testen, testen, testen! (as it is said here.)
Just a basic 5-minute serological test, self-administered, would be much better than what we have now.
Then, the approach can be similar to what was done in South Koera or Iceland -- just quarantine those known to be infected, and track the rest.
There are some really thorny privacy issues here, and allowing any government to sink their teeth into that will make it difficult to "claw it back" once the pandemic is over.
@freemo We still do not have good asymptomatic figures for most countries. Iceland right now perhaps represents the best known.
Again, yes, we don't want to overwhelm the hospitals, as what happened in Italy. BUT, how long do we "slow" the growth before it starts to have fatalities elsewhere?
This is really something akin to a linear programming problem. Except the growth rates are exponential, not linear. I suppose one could log it to make it appear "linear".
I am not aware of this analysis being performed at all.
Meanwhile, I shall continue in my amped up daily doses of vitamin C, Zinc, capsaicin, etc.
@freemo But if the actual death rate is low, lower than that of your typical flu, does it make sense to do the lockdowns? Note that that is not the same as quarantines.
Once a week will slow the progress a bit, not halt it dead in its tracks... and the exponential spread... it may double once every 10 days rather than once every 3.
it may be that CoVID-19 will not complete running its course until:
1) Nearly everyone is infected,
2) Nearly everyone is inoculated, once we have a vaccine, if we ever get that at all.
And so, the cost-benefit analysis of the lockdown (borders, physical presence at jobs, etc.) vs. just quarantining the infected -- even with the low mortality rate -- has to be weighed careful against both the economic and psychological impacts -- which could also lead to death.
I am not at all confident that those in power know how to properly decide in such a manner. Politicians are typically not mathematicians.
Does the lockdown make sense? We all go to the local neighbourhood supermarkets to shop, where we bump into everyone locally, anyway.
We have no idea how many are infected; just the reported cases that are symptomatic.
Iceland has voluntary testing in place, and 50% of those tested are asymptomatic.
Note that this is voluntary, though a more scientific approach is underway. So we know at least 50% are asymptomatic, and I expect that percentage to be actually higher. Only time will tell.
That other global issue:
https://youtu.be/pHcjQJbtsM0
Good news: The curves are flattening, and indeed beginning to decline in many countries!
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-daily-cases-epidemiological-trajectory
@ssokolow Hahaha! I actually have multiple SMS numbers! :)
I rarely give that out, and grow annoyed with how many places that insists on having it.
In these days of aggregation of data, you do NOT want to make that much easier to track you.
Nearly every website you visit has tracker scripts embedded in the pages, as well as ad scripts. Sybu script blocker to the rescue! (there is a similar plugin that works with FireFox)
@ssokolow You may be right. 2FA would have foiled them in my specific case anyway, but others...!
Github keeps pestering me to engage in other security and recovery measures. Maybe it's high time I did so.
@ssokolow Yep. That's part of what saved my bacon. The browser did not recognize the site, so it didn't fill it in.
Not sure what they expect to gain from cracking my github site, because most things there are already visible to the public anyway. And the stuff that isn't would not be of too much value to them.
Heilige Scheiße. 😩
@freemo Not to mention that I have 2FA set up on that account anyway!
@freemo Doing a DDoS on the phiser! Poetic justice!!!
Beware of the glthubs.com phishing attacks. I nearly fell for this one.
The only thing that saved my bacon is that I should already be logged in! Then I noticed the funny-looking domain name.
@freemo @SecondJon @stevenroose
I fear that you may be right on this. Where this will lead in the next decade or two is scary, to say the least.
May be safer to be here rather than there. And all the more reason to renounce.
The dreams of AGI. The reality that we still suck.
Joined Oct 2018
