After sitting on this for a couple of days, I think this whole topic hits differently based on the audience.
Oracle, RedHat, Suse, all care about user mind share (of course!). But I care more about what the contributors do. Will projects like Fedora bleed away contributors due to this? Where will they go?
Contributors tend to gravitate to whoever will make life easiest for them to do so. Second to that is their freedoms and contributions.
If IBM locks down and Oracle opens up, you'd see a shift in the other direction, but mostly will look for a full substitute that has a better track record than Oracle.
@lucifargundam @Graycot
Nothing on the scale of a distribution, but plenty of smaller projects.