Holy shit. Holy fucking shit.

Realistically, there is zero doubt that #Russia blew the #Kakhovka dam. Destroying dams with bombs or artillery is hard work, as the amount of effort devoted to it in WW2 demonstrates. #Ukraine most likely doesn't have the specialized resources for it, nor do they have any good reason right now. On the other hand, demolition of a dam you control, as Russia did until now, is ... not easy, but a whole lot easier.

And if you squint and turn your head sideways, it kinda sorta makes sense in the short term. The floodwaters will prevent any large-scale Ukrainian crossing, and do a whole lot of damage to densely populated areas that are mostly under Ukrainian control. Which fits perfectly with the Russian policy of destruction for destruction's sake.

Long-term, or even medium-term? Not so much. The #Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant will have to be shut down completely, and remain so until the dam is rebuilt. Even bigger, the dam and its reservoir provided most of #Crimea's water supply. Sustaining a long-term Russian presence there will be impossible. There just isn't enough water.

So what it boils down to is, RUSSIA HAS SURRENDERED CRIMEA.

They may genuinely not realize this yet. Thinking through the consequences of their actions has not been one of their strong suits, since about the third day of the war. But that's what it means.

Holy shit. Holy *fucking* shit.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destruction-russia-rcna87868