Big news in bug math. This is the first year since 1803 when both 13-year cicadas and 17-year cicadas will emerge from the ground simultaneously in the US!
13 and 17 are both prime. It's believed cicadas evolved to have prime-number life cycles to avoid predators that emerge more frequently, like once every 4 years or 5 years or... whatever. By showing up infrequently, with a prime number life cycle, they can starve out those predators.
And since 13 and 17 are both prime and 13 × 17 = 221, both kinds of cicadas emerge simultaneously only once every 221 years. And
1803 + 221 = 2024
so now they'll both emerge simultaneously and we'll have 𝑙𝑜𝑡𝑠 of cicadas!
Also, this year the two kinds can interbreed!
The last time the Northern Illinois Brood’s 17-year cycle aligned with the Great Southern Brood’s 13-year cycle, Thomas Jefferson was president.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/science/cicadas-emergence-broods.html
@johncarlosbaez 'Also, this year the two kinds can interbreed!' OK, that's too big a hook. Do we understand how the cycles happen - is it genetics? If so, how? If so what happens when they interbrede?
@penguin42 - I doubt we understand this, since Mendelian genetics wasn't a thing back in 1803. Maybe someone has been waking up cicadas prematurely and interbreeding them just to see what happens.... but that seems a bit unlikely.
@johncarlosbaez Hmm looks like people are trying but haven't got a conclusion; https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-018-0025-7
@penguin42 @johncarlosbaez Nice. One thing to note (which I've also seen in other sources) is "life cycle regulation in periodical cicadas may not always be strict, because 4-year acceleration and/or deceleration of emergences have been observed in both groups of cicadas". So the mathematics may be beautiful but only an approximate description of what the cicadas do.
@johncarlosbaez @soaproot @penguin42 There's a nice review here about the role of allochrony (different breeding time) on speciation.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/mec.14126
They also delve into the genetics of the whole thing and, maybe unsurprisingly, clock genes seem to be involved in daily and seasonal allochrony. When it comes to yearly though they say
Yearly allochrony
We could not find any studies investigating the genetic control of breeding time under yearly allochrony, a clear gap in our knowledge of allochronic speciation.
Cicadas are not the only species in which this happens, and it's not limited to insects (or animals) either!
@nicolaromano @soaproot - thanks, I'll have to read that review - it sounds very interesting. The paper pointed out by @penguin42 says no genetic difference has yet been found that could explain the difference between 13- and 17-year cicadas... but it also says that doesn't mean one doesn't exist.
@penguin42