I don't typically write for #ukpol. However, some of the puritanical anti porn takes (seems to mainly be cops with their "hunches", and basically asserting that porn must be bad, even though there is no actual evidence of this) are getting so detached from reality that I have to comment on it briefly. No, not on the fediverse, thankfully.
As for the other bits, there is a very obvious reason why online crime would increase during Covid. That is, because, uh, everyone is online and there isn't a whole lot else to do...? Also, locking up populations is not exactly great for mental health, and the mental health system was even driven to the brink of collapse (probably depriving mental health resources from many). And remember, that mental health, or services for that matter most likely, don't just spring to normality immediately, just because a situation has been lifted.
I've even seen allegations the "Conservative Party" has historically explored trying to dissuade people from using mental health services in order to save money. Crime (including child abuse) tends to be associated with poverty, it can be reasonably inferred that the economic devastation wrought by Brexit might be associated with an increase in crime as well.
Also, covid style lockdowns might deprive individuals from social inclusion.
So, right off the bat, we have far more compelling explanations.
There are other potential variables as well, such as potentially compromised international co-operation due to the "special military operation" involving Russia and Ukraine. Also, a lot of these modern platforms, when you think about it, are not really that old (especially, when you count uptake). Even the Web as a whole is not that old, when you think of the world in decades, rather than rapid yearly cycles.
Also, the folks over at the Home Office might periodically practically alter what constitutes an image based crime. Anecdotally, I've also noticed quite a few "he did something in 2020" type crimes being reported in British news articles, this might also bias numbers (I think that cops going out of their way to chase old low level image based crimes (i.e. viewing) is probably not the best use of their resources, although I don't know a whole lot about this particular phenomena).
That's not all someone could come up with, of course.
https://qoto.org/@olives/111516011246609826 I've written about the more particular subject of how porn is not really some big evil (and even sort of how it intersects with human rights... sort of) before. Also, why a lot of the words I just wrote (in the above paragraphs) shouldn't matter for not engaging in censorship (or invading someone's privacy).
Also, platforms are typically becoming *more* censorious in terms of porn, or porn themes, as time goes by. That is typically what we see. So, either diversity actually reduces crime, or it is unrelated. Take your pick. It also calls into question the more censorship angle... It's also an annoyingly zero sum initiative, it's contentious, controversial, and wastes a lot of resources chattering about something that isn't going to work in the real world.
I've written about what might actually be helpful, although it'd be hard for me to immediately come up with something for the U.K. Typically, it comes down to educational initiatives (or enforcement action to deal with online predators?).
It's honestly quite upsetting that someone would ignore *literally everything else* going on in the country to peddle a "I hate porn" agenda. Not surprising at all. But, nonetheless, disappointing.
One I haven't mentioned but which could be relevant is that deaths (perhaps, from Covid, if it is widespread enough) in the family can also contribute to poorer mental health.