Simpson's paradox, which also goes by several other names, is a phenomenon in probability and statistics in which a trend appears in several groups of data but disappears or reverses when the groups are combined. This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics,[1][2][3] and is particularly problematic when frequency data are unduly given causal interpretations.[4] The paradox can be resolved when confounding variables and causal relations are appropriately addressed in the statistical modeling.[4][5] Simpson's paradox has been used to illustrate the kind of misleading results that the misuse of statistics can generate.[6][7]
Screenshot 2022-09-08 at 09-24-33 Toby Young no Twitter.png

@11112011 you've been reading Taleb, should be pretty simple to do the analysis and demonstrate why ivm doesn't work

@skells + Stat biases
+ Difference betw RCT & observation
+ Simpson's paradox
+ Quackery
+ You must ALSO apply "they make money" to cars, baking goods, wine, condoms, subscription to his newsletter, etc.

@11112011 I'm sure Pfizer would pay a lot to anyone who could convincingly make the case in favour of their product

strangely all I've seen is handwaving