skells @skells@qoto.org
Joined Feb 2021
skells
boosted
@NBS is there any good literature on the mechanics of this? the line between propaganda and technical information is always foggy to me in this field
specifically bond vs equities vs commodities
@NBS so the term "policy error" that is being thrown around is a reflection of long bond markets, not a general consensus?
skells
boosted
@coolboymew 200 hours in gimp
you better appreciate what I do for you
f48f417dc52b2a3a83e7aa2d7f352f2849c4145bb6a712890291051c83c8f941.jpg
@NBS "policy error" ... markets are pricing in the perception that the fed has made a mistake and will have to cut rates down the line.
I understand that everyone is up to their necks in debt, and that the market can only sustain minimal hikes before widespread bankruptcy and "contagion"...
what I don't understand is:
a) what is stopping the fed from sustaining these hikes, and damn what the markets are predicting?
b) what possible course other than sustained low rates would not be seen as policy error? is there some magic pace of rate hikes that the market would nod sagely at and start to pay down what they owe?
if you think you're too easily distracted, always remember that people have arguments on fedi
@augustus if the US state department can keep its grubby mitts of, could be cool
@tfb no, but I've been meaning to work some electronics myself
I'd be interested to hear how it goes
skells
boosted
@vriska tbf Putin is also behaving like a massive prick
skells
boosted
I have way too much time on my hands and still waiting for nightly freezes to be over, so that I could begin my famine garden.
So I must vent about Ukraine.
I retain my disclaimer. I don't know anything about Ukraine, apart from my personal knowledge, which is limited. Everyone lies, at this point both Russian and Western narratives are completely detached from each other, and even reality.
Lastly, I have grown increasingly frustrated with American, so called, nazies doing geopolitical analysis. Do not quit your day jobs. Any of you. And stop reading exclusively Intel Slava and other literal Russian propaganda. Because it shows. It really really shows, and you do not look thoughtful, which was the redeeming feature of this political scene.
So What the fuck is Putin up to?
Smart money was that Russia wouldn't invade, because their deployment wasn't correct for invasion (whatever that means). And it shows. They shouldn't have invaded with the composition they deployed. But they did. Narrative for why, was on Myth 20c by Raphael Johnson - Ukraine was in preparation for deploying 'chemical weapons' and 'genociding' Donbas.
Am I supposed to believe that? Because that's bullshit. Ukraine was in process of deploying NATO supplied weaponry and assaulting Donbas. Which was a real threat that could've ended Donbas war. Which is also why bulk of Ukrainian army is in the East, and why Eastern theater hasn't collapsed.
Now the smarter money, was that RF was preparing for war, because of logistical deployment. Moving of HQ, fuel dumps, increase and sustainment of deployment. Which is why western media reported preparation for war, because it was visible from space.
Logistics
I get to pretend to be an armchair professional and blither about logistics, as if I know anything about it. Truth is, war has been for a while and analysis of logistics becomes available. In short, if you have seen telegram videos and photos, you know that Russians move their military on trains. (I have lived by the Kaliningrad railroad, so I have seen alot of Russian kit, moved openly, to flex on us. ).
Good news - Ukraine uses Russian gauge.
Bad news - Ukraine has capability to destroy railroads. I know.
Reason why Southern advance has been so successful is because apparently they managed to capture railways intact. Again, recent analysis just shows this.
Reason why Northern and Eastern advancement is slow, is because they have to deliver everything there on trucks. And Russia doesn't have enough trucks.
Because they've deployed mass armored formation. And tanks consume 1MPG. 1! That's 235 l / 100 km, for us in the civilized world. BMP's consume less, but still. So a single Tank company, supllied by a single 2000 gallon military truck (of which Russia has few) can cover 200 miles. Russia has deployed a thousand tanks and 4k BMPS and shit ton of relatively economy armored 4x4 (like 5 MPG).
Do you see now, why do Ukrainian farmers tow their tanks? They just run out of fuel and abandon them. It's WW2 again.
Anyway, that 40 mile Chernobyl convoy is just stuck there. for a week. I thought they're waiting to establish forward base in NW Kiev, but nope. It's just stuck. And Polish military has the biggest popping of forehead veins at the moment. If this continues, I think they'll just invade, fuck Article 5, they'll do Article 1939, Katyn Kurwa Invasion.
So no. Russia is doing poorly. Materially. There's no master plan. They'll just slowly, as their logistics allow, bring in artillery and systematically level every Ukrainian city. Mariupol is under most advanced shelling (it's also 400k city). Kharkov has been for longer shelling, but it's a 1.4 M city.
Oh and, they still don't have Air Supremacy. Maybe it doesn't matter.
And then there's sanctions.
In short, spectacular sanctions by the west. No really, I didn't expect Germany and Italy to do it. Or Hungary. But they did and Russian economy is done. Russian oil is just gone from the market. I think the market hasn't realised it yet. Curiously, oil isn't sanctioned. Just that nobody wants to buy it. Because of logistics, wartime losses (Force Majeure) isn't covered. So nobody will ship Russian oil. And if you do, somehow, western refineries refuse to buy it. Too risky.
So just sell to China, right? Wrong. Pipelines are at maximum capacity already and EU assigned oil fields do not have deep sea ports. All that EU oil is just gone from the market. And... their oil fields are in Siberia. Where it's cold. And if they stop that production, shit freezes over. And that production will be lost for years to come. Maybe forever. For anyone who had to keep their engines running, through the night, so that they don't freeze over in -40C temp, this is understandeable.
1/2
So I must vent about Ukraine.
I retain my disclaimer. I don't know anything about Ukraine, apart from my personal knowledge, which is limited. Everyone lies, at this point both Russian and Western narratives are completely detached from each other, and even reality.
Lastly, I have grown increasingly frustrated with American, so called, nazies doing geopolitical analysis. Do not quit your day jobs. Any of you. And stop reading exclusively Intel Slava and other literal Russian propaganda. Because it shows. It really really shows, and you do not look thoughtful, which was the redeeming feature of this political scene.
So What the fuck is Putin up to?
Smart money was that Russia wouldn't invade, because their deployment wasn't correct for invasion (whatever that means). And it shows. They shouldn't have invaded with the composition they deployed. But they did. Narrative for why, was on Myth 20c by Raphael Johnson - Ukraine was in preparation for deploying 'chemical weapons' and 'genociding' Donbas.
Am I supposed to believe that? Because that's bullshit. Ukraine was in process of deploying NATO supplied weaponry and assaulting Donbas. Which was a real threat that could've ended Donbas war. Which is also why bulk of Ukrainian army is in the East, and why Eastern theater hasn't collapsed.
Now the smarter money, was that RF was preparing for war, because of logistical deployment. Moving of HQ, fuel dumps, increase and sustainment of deployment. Which is why western media reported preparation for war, because it was visible from space.
Logistics
I get to pretend to be an armchair professional and blither about logistics, as if I know anything about it. Truth is, war has been for a while and analysis of logistics becomes available. In short, if you have seen telegram videos and photos, you know that Russians move their military on trains. (I have lived by the Kaliningrad railroad, so I have seen alot of Russian kit, moved openly, to flex on us. ).
Good news - Ukraine uses Russian gauge.
Bad news - Ukraine has capability to destroy railroads. I know.
Reason why Southern advance has been so successful is because apparently they managed to capture railways intact. Again, recent analysis just shows this.
Reason why Northern and Eastern advancement is slow, is because they have to deliver everything there on trucks. And Russia doesn't have enough trucks.
Because they've deployed mass armored formation. And tanks consume 1MPG. 1! That's 235 l / 100 km, for us in the civilized world. BMP's consume less, but still. So a single Tank company, supllied by a single 2000 gallon military truck (of which Russia has few) can cover 200 miles. Russia has deployed a thousand tanks and 4k BMPS and shit ton of relatively economy armored 4x4 (like 5 MPG).
Do you see now, why do Ukrainian farmers tow their tanks? They just run out of fuel and abandon them. It's WW2 again.
Anyway, that 40 mile Chernobyl convoy is just stuck there. for a week. I thought they're waiting to establish forward base in NW Kiev, but nope. It's just stuck. And Polish military has the biggest popping of forehead veins at the moment. If this continues, I think they'll just invade, fuck Article 5, they'll do Article 1939, Katyn Kurwa Invasion.
So no. Russia is doing poorly. Materially. There's no master plan. They'll just slowly, as their logistics allow, bring in artillery and systematically level every Ukrainian city. Mariupol is under most advanced shelling (it's also 400k city). Kharkov has been for longer shelling, but it's a 1.4 M city.
Oh and, they still don't have Air Supremacy. Maybe it doesn't matter.
And then there's sanctions.
In short, spectacular sanctions by the west. No really, I didn't expect Germany and Italy to do it. Or Hungary. But they did and Russian economy is done. Russian oil is just gone from the market. I think the market hasn't realised it yet. Curiously, oil isn't sanctioned. Just that nobody wants to buy it. Because of logistics, wartime losses (Force Majeure) isn't covered. So nobody will ship Russian oil. And if you do, somehow, western refineries refuse to buy it. Too risky.
So just sell to China, right? Wrong. Pipelines are at maximum capacity already and EU assigned oil fields do not have deep sea ports. All that EU oil is just gone from the market. And... their oil fields are in Siberia. Where it's cold. And if they stop that production, shit freezes over. And that production will be lost for years to come. Maybe forever. For anyone who had to keep their engines running, through the night, so that they don't freeze over in -40C temp, this is understandeable.
1/2
@11112011 meanwhile India
direct translation from the mandarin:
could the CIA please stop inciting coups and training extremists for a minimum of 20 minutes
@thendrix we accept you for who you are
Joined Feb 2021
