Time again to look at the #SOCRATES conjunction predictions for payloads in Earth orbit, focusing on those involving #Starlink & #OneWeb. At the end of January 2023, payloads from these 2 constellations accounted for approx. 60% of all SOCRATES conjunction predictions [1/n]

#Starlink satellites now account for approx. 6000 conjunction predictions per day (with miss distances of 5 km or less), which is about the same number of conjunctions predicted for all payloads other than Starlink & OneWeb - functional or otherwise - in Earth orbit [2/n]

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#OneWeb accounts for about 2000 conjunction predictions per day, which is one-third the rate for #Starlink despite having only one-seventh the number of satellites in orbit. Per-satellite, therefore, OneWeb has a greater impact on conjunction activity than Starlink [3/n]

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For conjunctions predicted with max. collision probabilities of 1E-5 or higher, the two constellations now account for about two-thirds of all such high-probability events with a roughly even split between OneWeb and Starlink [4/n]

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@ProfHughLewis
how many collisions would we expect by now you treat all encounters as iid an assuming no avoidance maneuver?

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