tobychev @tobychev@qoto.org

New @niemanlab by study coauthor @dangillmor: "The corrections dilemma: Admitting your mistakes increases accuracy but reduces audience trust, a new study finds" https://www.niemanlab.org/2023/03/the-corrections-dilemma-admitting-your-mistakes-increases-accuracy-but-reduces-audience-trust-a-new-study-finds/

Our study: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-experimental-political-science/article/corrections-dilemma-media-retractions-increase-belief-accuracy-but-decrease-trust/A6A9A16D97F22E1CA22B051D215E752B

one aspect of diffusion-based generative models which I find kind of funny / bittersweet is that

i) the optimisation problem is convex in terms of the { score / denoiser / ... }, and is even a least-squares problem in some formulations. this means that it would be extremely well-adapted to the sorts of statistical theory which people loved 10-15 years ago, but

ii) these models have become { popular, feasible, etc. } in the neural network era (and even as a direct result of certain NN architectures?), and the aforementioned favourable convexity properties are largely absent in weight space, and thus don't obviously yield any insights about the recent practical successes.

The #BBB turning up the soil in the province of Overijssel

#Netherlands #PS2023 #elections

The 2023 edition of my long-running anti-establishment art-science-fusion code-therapy smooth-baritone causal inference & Bayesian data analysis course is complete. 20 lectures, from the basics of causal inference & Bayesian updating to mixed models & Gaussian processes.

Lecture recordings, slides, homework sets and solutions are all listed here. Take it at your own pace. First half is a solid course in regression and causal inference. Second half turns it up to 11. https://github.com/rmcelreath/stat_rethinking_2023#calendar--topical-outline

Nonprofits delenda est.
---
RT @JakeMGrumbach
Leave it to state legislatures to make Congress look like paragons of virtue. Truly wild story of corruption in the Ohio state legislature in the post-Citizens United era.

https://grist.org/politics/ohio-bribery-scandal-larry-householder-verdict/

h/t Pierson
https://twitter.com/JakeMGrumbach/status/1635337460262764544

Very provocative article by Animah Kosai on Corruption Perception Index.

We so easily forget that the ones who corrupt are the ones who pay bribes, not the ones who receive them.

Corruption and bribes are mechanisms at the disposal of the rich and powerful to tilt the playing field in their favour and away from the lesser rich and powerful, so who are the ones to blame?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/who-corrupt-really-animah-kosai

#Corruption #AnimahKosai #MoneyLaundering #Bribe #Bribes

Yet another sign that the footprint of the death penalty is shrinking. I thank Gov. Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

Here’s the first part of his statement today:

Today, I'm announcing I will not issue any execution warrants during my term as Governor.

When one comes to my desk, I will sign a reprieve every time — and I’m asking the General Assembly to send me a bill abolishing the death penalty in Pennsylvania once and for all…

#DeathPenalty #CapitalPunishment #Abolition

On #Poland's schizophrenic border regime: while #refugees are welcomed on the Ukrainian border, the Belarusian border is a militarized "death zone" where humanitarian aid is criminalized.

30 dead, 200 missing, broken bones, food and water poisoning, dog bites, miscarriages, hypothermia, starvation, trauma..

https://twitter.com/ManuelaBoatca/status/1601534875659558912

#refugeeswelcome #EUBorders

From "Hurry up and leave, Bachar" to "People's revolution everywhere" — a thread by @ayoub about how a Syrian #protest song was adopted and adapted, over and again, by Lebanese and Iranians, with lyrics that similarly came to refer to shared global fights: "From Lebanon to Hong Kong, from Chile to Lebanon"

https://twitter.com/joeyayoub/status/1586055384892346369

#ProtestSongs #internationalism

If the US wants to reduce inflation, maybe the solution should include sending USD 1tn to the developing world to invest in climate solutions. Rising US rates are causing massive unemployment -- in places like Colombia, where it's at 14%.

https://wapo.st/3DCZNwv

US China's Military Developments Report (CMDR) says the 300 missile silos are real. Well, what about fissile material production? China doesn't have that much plutonium. USG people tell me that "it's all real, it's all in the report." But there is not much there. 1/

Givetvis är såväl feodalismen som mongolerna relevanta delar av Rysslands historia. Men bara två delar och man kan hitta otaliga andra.
Ska vi förstå dagens Ryssland måste vi hur som helst inse att det är ett kapitalistiskt land, integrerat i en global ekonomi.

This just in: Dystopian science fiction will no longer be sold or streamed in the San Francisco Bay Area or Silicon Valley due to the high risk of it inspiring new tech startups. #tech #scifi

Meanwhile in Edinburgh

My own two cents: these stories should be reported not because they help or hinder Ukraine’s war effort, but because they are what is happening. It’s just the news.

I see people are still talking about that "science is getting less #disruptive" paper.

It is, of course, wrong in its interpretation because as usual scientists don't evaluate the profit taking systems that structure science and instead treat them like some natural phenomenon.

The results are trivially explained by the way citations are structured to prop up a prestige hierarchy of journals, I already wrote about this here about the last paper that said "science is slowing down" but y'all only read 15 page papers squarely within your discipline 🙃: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2209.07493

Green: It's not all doom-and-gloom. FCC recently required a coordination agreement with NSF for Starlink Gen2. SpaceX didn't oppose the requirement. Elsewhere, we're making progress with Dept. of Commerce and the FAA. #AAS241 #LPRISD

Next, Richard Green (Steward Observatory) and Charles Mudd (Mudd Law) present on the policy/regulatory issues relating to #satellite #megaconstellations. #AAS241 #LPRISD