History is cyclical. This article from 2012 predicted the recent social turbulence by looking at cycles of violence in history.
Stupid opinion since I haven't read the article, but from the outside the case for #cliodynamics looks to me as weak as the case for #technicalanalysis: systems so complex and rare as the History of countries and the price of stocks can't be “predicted” by looking at past trends and patterns. Perhaps if we had had already millions of years of History, millions of nations with good written records, and millions of traded companies over the same long period of time — perhaps then some reliable patterns might emerge. And I'm still doubtful, given what little I know about #chaostheory.
(Just a hunch; epistemological confidence: low :)
@tripu It's different than TA, because in TA the participants are watching each other and TA is just the way to watch others in aggregate. There's a method in the madness; TA is as predictive as predicting the next move of your chess opponent, but having thousands or millions of opponents, that you chart with TA.
Clyodinamics similar to population boom-bust cycles of prey and predators, as the article says.
The corollary reading between the lines: the elites are predator-like.