My colleague Kevin Gross and I have a new preprint up on the arXiv.

Just for fun, rather than pure text simple text explainer, let's go some slides for a talk I'm giving at icssi.org/ tomorrow.

Here's the paper itself: Rationalizing risk aversion in science. arxiv.org/abs/2306.13816

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@ct_bergstrom I wonder if there's any evidence of increased risk taking on the part of researchers in fields where the cost of a failed high risk proposal or project isn't as high as it might be in other fields? For example, what about MD-PhDs in medical research or academic computer scientists? In both cases, hefty compensation is still available as clinicians or industry researchers, respectively, which would minimize wage risk aversion.

@twitskeptic Interesting concept. One way to think about this would be to look at the distribution of how many papers come out of a PhD dissertation.

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