I always expected #bluesky to outcompete the #fediverse, especially when it comes to our American friends, who are much more directly marketed to by the corporations.
That said, I think the fediverse (or another federated social network that's not owned by a company) will outlast it.
Bluesky will need to make a profit at some point, which is when the cycle of #enshittification will start for that particular product.
What we need to do is to make the fediverse a more welcoming place to be by that time, which does mean tackling some uncomfortable problems like the amount of casual racism that pops up a bit too much.
@ainmosni I think you're overlooking that BlueSky interface is surprisingly lacking in features, and that holds back its adoption.
It also had surprisingly slow development.
With those two factors alone it really shot itself in the foot, overcoming any benefit it may have gotten from marketing.
In any case, the system itself is distributed and technically in a way that's probably superior to fediverse, but the developer missteps have left it looking kind of tragic at this point.
