Was discussing w/ friends how I think Mamdani would perform as mayor. I was curious to see what prediction markets had to say. Surprised that only Kalshi had any on post-election acts; Polymarket and Manifold only on election itself. (I don't really use them; is this typical?)
@shriramk I think a whole lot of people from around the world have strong opinions about the guy without actually knowing how the city government is structured, how it works, what the mayor actually does, etc.
I know I certainly don't know how that government is structured, so I don't have an informed opinion. But a whole lot of people have strong opinions than I know aren't informed.
@phf Sure, but I don't see what this has to do with my post.
@shriramk You may have a point there sir.
@shriramk There's the utterly predictable "panic" on the side of people with money that even a moderate might ... MIGHT ... cost them a tiny fraction of a percent of their portfolio IF he succeeds in enacting anything. Hence they dump a whole lot more money than would ever be at stake policy-wise into making sure there's a lot of random dirt that gets thrown. Doesn't matter if it's all lies or not, as long as it gets thrown. Because some of it might stick anyway. Don't need a "market" for that.