On air on the #BBCWorldService radio regarding the situation in #Syria - long thread:
it has been an extraordinary few days and Syria, culminating in the last few hours in the fall of the House of Assad, after more than 50 ys as Islamist led rebel forces entered the capital, Damascus. The government of President Bashar al Assad appears to have offered little resistance as have his forces. The Syrian PM in a recorded video message says he has to work on a transition of power. (cont)
. Bashar al Assad and his Baath Party had exerted a brutal rule over Syria, the country has been devastated by civil war since 2011 when he and his acolytes cracked down on mass pro-democracy demonstrations. Millions fled and hundreds of thousands died - were gassed, tortured or shot on his orders
#BBCNews Barbara Plett-Usher arrived with the rebel forces in Damascus – she saw an army base outside the capital where men were coming out and walking down the road without uniform
and a Syrian guide said ‘This had been going on for soldiers are taking off their uniforms. And just walking away’. On the motorway she saw discarded clothing from soldiers. Army equipment also tanks. Military were left behind, with a few people clambering over them, but mostly the roads were very quiet… … ‘driving into Damascus I can see there is some traffic on the street again, Not that much, Very quiet Some people on the street as well. Shops look like they are shut at this point.’
#BBCNews Lyse Doucet: ‘it is the road we've taken so many times before and it's always been crisscrossed by checkpoints with really, really quite forcefully trying to impose order in Syria, The Syrian Army. Barbara Plett-Usher talked about the Iranian Embassy. It's in Mezze, a well to do neighbourhood which has many embassies there with their high walls and the biggest embassy of all was the Iranian one with its Hezbollah Ally, keeping President Assad in power
and now. Everything's been turned upside down. People cannot believe that finally the 50 year rule of the Assad family is over and I have to say, Having been to Syria many times, every time I went there You felt the force of an oppressive state power and how its tentacles were in every part of life…. Syrians were afraid, except for that extraordinary moment with peaceful protests of 2011 when they said we have lost our fear, calling not for an end to the regime, just calling for more democracy
foreign ministers from across the region are watching closely - their assessment is that it is not HTS that has taken power in the capital, Damascus. It was another group of rebels from the south, composed many of them are former of a former group known as the Free Syrian Army, which worked with countries like Britain and the United States in the first years of the uprising. Working with local groups who had arms within the capital. But the real challenge now is
when the celebrations subside is how do all these rebel groups control their own forces to ensure they do not run amok and also how do they work together because different groups now control different parts of Syria. And we also heard there from the Syrian Prime Minister saying he is ready to support continuity of governance, the big question is how will that work. Watching are the Iranians and the Russians who were the key backers and kept President Assad in power.
The Turkish Foreign Minister of the country which does have some sway over the rebels. In the early hours of the morning they called for a peaceful transition and discussions before on an inclusive inclusive government. But there has been so much brutality. So many people have suffered so many people were tortured to death, had disappeared in the black hole of Syrian prisons…
#BBCNews Middle East analyst Sebastian Usher: what we've seen in the past ten days is what seemed impossible has happened. But looking back on that that may be the easy bit, the fact that the Syrian government forces evaporated and there was no final hardcore defence. President Assad melt away. The government forces were known to be incapable of keeping President Assad in power by themselves and there was no sense that they'd got only stronger, really, over the years
So less backing from outside and also the militias in the hardcore circle around President Assad had shown themselves willing to fight to the last without that there wasn't much. It felt like slicing through butter. Really. I think for the rebels as they came down from the north and up from the south and from the East. But that almost looks like the easy bit now because they didn't face any real opposition. And President Assad. It seems he's gone now.
The real difficulty as we're hearing from Syrians themselves inside and outside the country is what is left behind is a country that had not been brought together had not been united in any sense. It is a divided country. The part that President Assad. Had under his control the major cities, the sixty percent or so that's concerned, what happens there. That's where the power vacuum is, down in the south
There are groups which have already started to take control in the sense. There was almost like kind of no government control there in Daraa in Swayda. You have the Kurds who have essentially been running a semi autonomous area almost a third of the country up in the north. You have the Turks hold sway both directly and also through proxy militias on the ground. So, the immediate concern will be how this vital part of the country can be sustained
and how the other forces can melt together. There's talk of it being a rebel coalition. That is optimistic. I think what we are hearing that It's for Southern rebels and some from the East who took over Damascus. That is probably true, but it would not have happened without the drive. In any sense from the north and from HTS and they're the ones who spearheaded they're the ones who are going to have the first and main say at the moment. 9to be continued)
Russia was probably the last they were using their power against the rebels at certain points, but never to the degree, we saw before. Iranian ability through its militias, its military advisers had been seriously weakened and diminished very much through Israeli attacks and strikes which have been intensified and also Israel - Its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, that had a major effect, too. "
A quick recap on Assad and his rule:
Bashar al Assad took power in the year 2000 inheriting a police state from his father, Hafez. He was just 34 at the time and promised reforms after his inauguration there was a brief period of greater political openness. He'd been training as an eye doctor in London when he was called back to Syria. At first he presented a new image of Syria to the world. . The West responded. There was even an audience with the Queen.
But the change that so many Syrians hoped for at home failed to materialise, the old family way of ruling soon reasserted itself. And when an uprising against him began in 2011, he responded with tanks in the streets. As accounts of atrocities multiplied Bashar al Assad denied they were taking place, refusing to take responsibility. No government in the world kills its people, he said
Bashar al Assad headed a regime that killed too many of its own people to even count, with barrel bombs as well as bullets and also with chemical weapons that are internationally banned. There was an attack with sarin gas on an opposition held suburb of the capital in 2013. Hundreds of people were killed. The West repeatedly said that Bashar al Assad must go. But however sickening the violence, there was no stomach to take on his regime. He repeatedly said he was merely fighting terrorists.
There were more chemical attacks and many, many more casualties. But back in 2015 Russia had stepped in to turn the tide of the war in Bashar al Assad's favour. It was Russian air strikes and support from Iran and Hezbollah that helped defeat the rebels in Aleppo and elsewhere. And in 2023, after years of isolation. President Assad took part in an Arab League summit, his regional rehabilitation. A symbol of his victory at the time as he was in Saudi Arabia.
The rebels were confined to the north west of Syria. But then came this major offensive by the rebels. Who headed first for Aleppo, Syria's second city, a huge prize that they took over with ease. They went on to capture more and more territory from the Assad regime weakened because the support. He's had been able to rely on was no longer there. Now he's gone, leaving a country deeply scarred by his brutal rule.
and back to Syria: The leader of Islamist rebels in Syria has said that all could now breathe freely. He was addressing crowds inside the historic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, after the toppling of five decades of Assad family rule. Abu Mohammed Al-Jawlani told supporters President Bashar al- Assad's leadership had spread sectarianism and corruption. In a speech laden with religious overtones, he said the removal of President Assad was a victory for what he called the 'heroic mujahedin' rebels
Assad has fled Syria to an unknown location. Al- Jawlani has vowed to respect minorities and not seek revenge. He's long tried to draw a line under his HTS group's jihadist past. But there are concerns about how genuine the changes have been.
As a curfew imposed on the Syrian capital by rebels gets underway, BBC correspondents there say there's been a mix of celebrations and looting.
Fighters have been struggling to stop the plundering of presidential residences where people have been taking furniture and other items. Correspondents have also reported some explosions whose provenance is unclear.
European Comm President, Ursula von der Leyen has offered EU help to rebuild #Syria which she said should safeguard minorities. Moscow said it's extremely worried by the developments. The UN sec gen Guterres has hailed the end of what he called a dictatorial regime
Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said the collapse of the Syrian regime is a direct result of his country's forceful action against President Assad's allies, Hezbollah and Iran. Across the Middle East, countries have greeted Mr Assad's ousting with a mixture of apprehension and hope.
Some, who'd welcomed Assad back into their fold, are now accusing him of squandering the opportunity to repair relations with his own people.
Given that Netanyahu is very unpopular in Israel, what would be the UK government stance if he was deposed in an uprising in Isreal? What has happened in Syria, may galvanise the opposition to have more confidence to challenge his authority and get him out of power, by vote or by force, we may then have a decent chance at peace in the Middle east and wider region.