Manchin is in the relatively safe seat.
With a 50/50 senate, they can find anyone to be the blocker... trick the noobi into blocking; use the retiring senator who is quitting politics for a 9-figure job with that multi-national corporation he just buttered up.
And when they have a clear majority, like the Republicans did, then distract the voters with a big, orange fool, or get us into a war, whatever it takes.
We don't have anything resembling a democracy at this point.