台灣備戰需要雙重加速: 爭取短期內購入軍備與強化軍員實戰能力.
"U.S. officials, former Taiwanese military leaders and security experts say they believe that means Taiwan needs to do more to ensure it can inflict enough damage to discourage an invading force or hold it off until the arrival of help—possibly from the U.S. After years of increases in military spending, China now has around 100 times as many ground force personnel as Taiwan and a military budget 25 times as large, according to Pentagon data."
中國武裝攻擊前，致力打擊台灣自衛信心的動機: PLA逾卌年無實戰經驗，且有印太鄰國的包圍壓力。
"Launching a full-scale amphibious incursion 130 kilometers from the mainland would be a daunting exercise, and the PLA has not had major combat experience since 1979. Beijing would risk major resistance from Taipei as well as a devastating military response from Washington. In addition, it would do grave, if not, irreparable damage to its ties with the United States and the European Union, not to mention the four militarily and economically formidable democracies it counts as neighbors: Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea. Indeed, it is hard to think of an action that would do more to jeopardize China’s long-term strategic prospects. It would be far less risky for Beijing to continue its present lines of efforts: increasing its bilateral military advantage across the Taiwan Strait, working to undermine Taipei’s self-confidence, and persuading Taiwan that it will eventually have to acquiesce to resolving cross-strait tensions on China’s terms."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/taiwan-at-the-nexus-of-technology-and-geopolitics/
“美國有線電新聞網（CNN）等美國媒體報導，在聯邦參院軍事委員會10日的聽證會上，台灣問題受到熱烈討論。密蘇里州共和黨籍參議員霍利（Josh Hawley）詢問參謀首長聯席會議主席、陸軍上將密利，假設中國人民解放軍發動犯台並控制台灣島，而台灣無法獨力抵抗時，美軍是否有能力捍衛台灣？
密利回覆道，共軍派出大規模軍隊越過台灣海峽奪取台灣，是極度複雜且困難的行動，即使面臨的是一個不抵抗的軍隊，行動也仍十分困難，「我可以向你保證，只要美國根據『台灣關係法』等法律做出相應的政治決定，我們就有能力捍衛台灣。」”
[ The question that we all have to try to answer is, "How willing is Xi Jinping to gamble on military action?" -- knowing that to take on the United States is extremely risky, but also knowing that this is probably the best moment to do it that he'll ever have, given that the U.S. does not have good, credible deterrence with respect to Taiwan.
Big wars usually happen when the aggressor thinks that time is not on its side and that it's better to act sooner rather than wait. ]
誠哉斯言:
"It only seems logical that Taiwan would be the first flashpoint. It is to Xi Jinping’s China what the Rhineland was to Hitler’s Third Reich and what Georgia was to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In each case, the ruler’s claim to it is based on an old empire’s borders, and it sits conveniently in his backyard.
Taiwan also provides a meaningful benchmark for the Chinese military. The island has been provided with significant defensive training and technology by the U.S. and other allies. A victory over Taiwan would make a powerful statement about the capabilities of the Chinese military.
Conflict in Taiwan seems all but inevitable as part of the rebuilding of the Chinese identity. The West should prepare accordingly."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dangerous-flashpoint-in-american-foreign-policy-china-iran-taiwan-primacy-11635885161?st=fbryi5gylrwd9uc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink