頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲,是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失,後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。
"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革,他指出,中國的金融規則過於分散,可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為,中國需要一致的金融穩定法。
劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案,並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出,完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間,他稱,由於風險事件接連出現,不僅損害市場,還波及金融及社會穩定性,因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。
《彭博》指出,像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府,在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致,一方面是疏忽對華融的監管,導致該公司爆發財務危機,一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"
中國巨型企業遭遇國有化威脅的同時, 逃過倒閉潮的倖存小型企業則面臨金流不足的危機.
"Close to 19% of China’s small businesses shut down last year, compared with 6.7% in 2019, according to a study released in March by Tsinghua University involving more than 50,000 companies nationwide."
"While the insolvency rate is expected to be better this year, many companies still face serious cash-flow constraints. A survey of more than 10,000 small businesses released in March by Peking University and Ant Group Co. found that 15% have sufficient cash flow to sustain operations for six months or longer, down from 19% in the third quarter of 2020, though some expect revenue to pick up as the year progresses."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-small-businesses-life-is-still-far-from-normal-11619953204
螞蟻這種鉅企都讓外資股東面臨相當風險了,遑論其他。
"The global investors, which also included private-equity firms, sovereign-wealth funds and pension plans, were on the cusp of reaping a massive windfall last fall. Now, it is far from certain that those investors will end up making a profit and they can’t easily sell their investments until the company revives its plans to go public again, which could be years away. "
螞蟻這隻金雞母被取卵後的損傷統計:
[ For the quarter ended in March, Alibaba’s net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $836 million, compared with a net income of 3.2 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. Its sales rose 64% to 187.4 billion yuan, equivalent to about $28.6 billion, beating analyst expectations.
In April, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation levied a $2.8 billion fine against Alibaba, equal to 4% of the company’s domestic annual sales. The regulator said its investigation, launched in December, found that the company punished certain merchants who sold goods both on Alibaba and on rival platforms, a practice known as “er xuan yi”—literally, “choose one out of two.”]
外媒注意到了中國監管機構對數據庫應用獲利的壓縮與鼓勵舉報的政策:
"The admonitions have so far stopped short of demanding complete corporate overhauls, other than for Ant. For some companies, placating Chinese authorities is a matter of tweaking some app features, while others could suffer more if much of their profits rely on data collection and sharing, according to employees of five of the app companies targeted by regulators last month."
壟斷數據資產的政策觀(被資產化的韭菜數據流只能是滋養黨的電流) 與進一步截斷大額資金外流管道(監管境外可變利益實體的企圖)
"In essence, the law shows that such digital records should be considered a national asset, which can be tapped or restricted according to the state’s needs."
"... the cyberspace administration is also working with China’s top securities regulator and other ministries in revising longstanding rules governing so-called variable interest entities, the people say. Such corporate structures, known as VIEs, have enabled foreign investors to buy into Chinese companies in technology and other sensitive sectors without outright owning voting shares in these firms.
.... One option being considered by the regulators is to require companies using the VIE structure to seek regulatory approval before selling shares in foreign markets "
滴滴被下架的後續影響:
"Bytedance, whose shareholders include Sequoia Capital and KKR & Co., is one of the world’s most valuable startups. Unlike Didi, which had chalked up losses for years, Bytedance’s financials meant it didn’t have to hurry to list, "
一頭霧水:這個罰款金額與要求騰訊放棄的權利根本不成比例啊。
“根據《CNBC》報導,中國反壟斷監管機構向騰訊下令,要求放棄旗下的國際唱片公司獨家音樂許可權,並向騰訊罰款。
外媒消息指出,國家市場監督管理總局(SAMR)24日以「騰訊違規收購中國音樂」,對騰訊處以50萬元人民幣(約216萬台幣)的罰款。”
CNBC的報導連結有提及騰訊佔了中國音樂庫八成資源:
“Following that acquisition, Tencent owns more than 80% of exclusive music library resources, giving the company an advantage over its competitors as it is able to reach more exclusive deals with copyright holders, SAMR said in a statement.”
外商遊戲託鎖國的福, 損失有限, 真正輸家還是韭國自家遊戲產業, 可喜可樂~
"The impact on U.S. game makers from the government’s decision is expected to be somewhat limited, given their indirect exposure to the Chinese market. Beijing treats videogames as publications and imposes its censorship rules on videogames before they can be sold in China."
兩年後的中國網路遊戲產業難得有一絲火苗能苟延殘喘:
"Even absent confirmation that the proposal had been killed, the stock prices of China’s two largest video game companies jumped on Tuesday, with Tencent rising 3.7 percent and Netease rising 6 percent, more than the overall market.
即便無法確認草案已遭否決,中國最大兩家遊戲公司的股價仍在週二迎來攀升,騰訊上漲3.7%,網易上漲6%,漲幅超大盤整體水平。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240124/china-online-video-games/zh-hant/dual/