@freemo Have you seen the USC antibody study results? Interesting, and somewhat expected https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/
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@obi indeed, not surprising
@realcaseyrollins thats what it has always seemed to me, but what do i know @freemo
Nothing about this changes the fact that it was as serious as they said. We always knew, and accounted for, the fact that many more were infected than tested. We also always knew that a large portion were asymptomatic though this doesnt change the fact that a large portion still died, these facts arent at odds either.
@freemo @realcaseyrollins I know its a lot to base off just one study, and to scale it towards the entire population, but if it were to that scale in that range (2.8-5.6%) wouldn't that bring the mortality rate down to somewhere between .02 and .06%? That added with the fact that COVID19 attributed deaths dont require a positive test, I'm just saying its not as dire as the media makes it out to be. Of course a lot of people died. A lot of people are always dying. Never good, but we don't do shit about the rest.
No there are sooooo many things wrong with that assumption.. putting aside anything to do with scaling that figure to the whole population you are forgetting one very fundamental fallacy in your thinking.. its called the False Positive Paradox..
In any disease where the number of people who have the disease is a minority of the population, even if the test for the disease has a very low false-positive rate then when you randomly sample and test the population the **overwhelming** majority of positive results will be false-positives.
this is a more specific form of the Base Rate Fallacy logic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
No I never said that. No studies show a high infection rate in terms of percentage of the population infected. New york city, for example, one of the worst hit is around a percentage point, most areas much lower.. it has a high R0 but the total number infected in terms of percentages are relatively low thankfully.
As far as I know that too was the same test as we are discussing here so subject to the same False Positive Paradox... point is we need other types of information, like what I discussed above, to really draw any sort of conclusion either way.
I never said the study is worthless, its very valuable, it just doesnt draw the conclusion you (or the media) seems to think it draws.
For the moment it only provides data, it doesn't draw a conclusion. However over time as we acquire more data it will certainly help draw conclusions. If we do some of the things mentioned above than the data from that study, when used with other data of the nature I mentioned, can eventually be used to determine the actual percentage of people infected. But so far we dont have the data to do that.
