@nikclayton @jgg no one is saying otherwise. When in doubt, I will put my money in the hands of people who desperately need it.. and generate OVERWHELMING amounts of sound scientific evidence that this works. Problem is, the red state brigade doesn't believe in science. Tell me how I fix that, and I will try my best.

@codinghorror @jgg If "the red state brigade doesn't believe in science" then why do you think more science is going to solve the problem?

Wouldn't funding political efforts to turn the red states/counties blue be more effective?

I'm not saying it has to be an either/or choice. But your blog post that started this thread made no mention of any sort of political effort alongside direct distribution of cash.

@nikclayton @codinghorror

One of the main pitfalls of the US political system is allowing corporations and lobbies to fund political parties.

In most countries in Europe, it is absolutely illegal: politicians and patrons end years in jail because of it. Of course, they have ways to circumvent it, but it is hard, dangerous, and the quantities get much, much smaller.

@jgg @nikclayton Yes -- the Citizens United supreme court decision is easily the worst one in the history of the USA, excepting slavery.

@nikclayton @jgg I stay in my lane. We generate the GMI evidence, the sound science and open results data, the human narrative stories, and, along the way, put our family's money in the hands of people who desperately need it far more than we do. That data will be freely available. Use it.

@nikclayton @codinghorror @jgg Perhaps that political effort is not necessary. From a scientific point of view, the traditional political lobbying has also been proven to hardly make a difference. In the end, I suspect that the only way to change the political situation is to vote differently. Empowering people to do so by funding _them_ instead of the politicians is at least an effort worth trying.

@mauritslamers @codinghorror @jgg

How do you get politicians to vote for what you want without either (a) standing for election yourself, or (b) lobbying people who are either standing for election, or already in office?

For example, 83% of US voters support Medicaid (https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/06/17/nx-s1-5435312/medicaid-cuts-big-beautiful-bill-trump-kff-poll).

This means **nothing** if they have no one to vote for who also supports it.

@nikclayton @mauritslamers @codinghorror

Politically speaking, not voting is always the worst possible strategy.

@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers look up this story. It’s not well known, but it should be. This alone is why our third GMI study is in Mississippi. I met the Dahmer family. Incredibly inspiring people.

@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers Nik, I'm happy to put you on the phone with Dennis Dahmer if you want to truly understand all this. I talk to him regularly. Just send me an email and I'll set it up for you.

@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers Nik, you had so very many opinions about all this that you shared at quite some length, so your silence here is striking.

@jgg @nikclayton @mauritslamers I think the takeaway is that's really easy to have a lot of opinions about stuff, whereas actually doing ANYTHING about it is a bit more difficult, isn't it? Talk is cheap. The actual work is, y'know... the job?

@codinghorror @jgg @nikclayton Of course having an opinion is "easy", but I think that a discussion is not just about opinions and actions, or who is right or wrong. It is about the (respectful) exchange of arguments and motivations which can lead to new insights. That is already hard to do in general, needing vocabulary and loads of practice in expressing oneself. Trying to do that in rather short messages is even harder and quickly leads to exchange of opinions rather than arguments.

@mauritslamers @jgg @nikclayton yeah, but seriously? Take that same $50m, and instead of doing sound science with open data results while simultaneously lifting thousands of desperately poor people out of poverty -- by the way, largely in areas that have wildly disproportionate political power in our US political system -- and showing them someone gives a good god damn about them.. and instead, let's give that to $50m to the meaningless, useless, completely broken courtesy Citizens United political lobbying grist mill?

That's a very, VERY hard no from me, my friends. If others want to do otherwise, great. You go, girls.

@mauritslamers @jgg @nikclayton and I reiterate my offer for Nik to call me and discuss this and explain it to me. I'm available. Just say the word, send me a link to the comms service of your choice, and I'm there. Just gird your loins in advance.

@codinghorror @jgg @nikclayton my point exactly: in my previous message I was not able to add (because of actual or perceived character limit) that in my view the argument of effectiveness should be paramount. The effect of that budget directly in the hand of the people who need it is going to be much greater than trying to use it to influence people who don't actually need that money anyway and are unlikely to be swayed by it.

@mauritslamers @jgg @nikclayton The conclusion is fucking obvious. So I'm doing the studies, the science, and every 16 months, 3 more counties, eventually reaching all 50 states, until I'm dead, and then hopefully even beyond that. Because it's not about me. It's about everyone having a fair shot, and not playing a rigged game. I don't play to win. I play purely for the love of the game: life.

@codinghorror @jgg @nikclayton my hope is that if I would be ever in a situation that would allow me to do what you do, I have the courage to do the same.

@codinghorror @jgg @nikclayton There are quite a few parallels between these discussions and the open source software world: the one who does/builds/makes will always be asked why they didn't do it differently... There is an expression in Dutch which translates to "Tall trees catch much wind": if you stick your neck out, you will hear about it.

@nikclayton @mauritslamers @jgg look, talk regime change first, because NOTHING, and I mean FUCKING NOTHING, is happening (politically) under the current regime. If you don't understand this, either you are being intentionally obtuse, or you have some other hidden agenda that I don't understand. Explain it to me like I am four years old, please.

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

If. Nothing. Is. Happening. Under. The. Current. Regime. Then. Wouldn't. It. Be. Better. To. Spend. That. Money. On. Efforts. To. Change. The. Regime?

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

I understand the argument that working with people on the ground may, eventually, translate in to different election results at some point in the future.

That seems very far from guaranteed, and great swathes of the American public have demonstrated they're perfectly capable of voting against their own interests because of straightforward racism.

Paying people so they can continue to vote for racists doesn't strike me as a winning long term strategy.

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

The blog post doesn't cover these issues, or even hint you've thought about them. You say "We hope to build a large body of scientific data showing that GMI really does improve the lives, and the communities, of our fellow Americans." and working with "local groups", "veterans", "community organisations" to gather the data.

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

But you don't say anything about what you will do with this data. You even say "This isn't about ideology or government", which strikes me as shockingly naive.

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

At the end of the post you encourage other people to "Talk about Guaranteed Minimum Income in your communities. Meet with your state and local officials." -- given the current state of things in the US, I think meetings like that will only be effective if they've got experienced, well-funded, lobbyists behind them.

And air-time devoted for GMI advertising on the TV channels that Mercer County residents -- roughly 75% voted for Trump -- are watching.

@codinghorror @mauritslamers @jgg

To make it very clear, I am not arguing against GMI/UBI. I am strongly in favour, for many of the reasons you cite in the blog post. Giving money directly to people, as you propose, will undoubtedly improve the lives of many people, and that's a good thing.

But if your goal is to eventually see this delivered by governments across America I don't think you've shown how this will move the needle.

@nikclayton @mauritslamers @jgg you may be right; I think we may need the US to split into two countries for the government to properly function at all.

@nikclayton @mauritslamers @jgg no, because that a) generates no open scientific data and b) doesn't put money in the hands of desperately poor people. Other people may make different decisions, and that's fine.

@nikclayton @codinghorror @jgg I don't live in the States so it is hard to get a good grasp on the exact context. My point though was mainly that any change can only start with actions by individuals where they affect the lives of others in the most direct way possible. Politicians are usually opportunistic in nature, so if there is a real opportunity they might take it and someone will stand up. It has to be grassroots eventually.

@nikclayton @codinghorror @jgg In my European eyes, the biggest issue in US politics is the amount of money flowing in it. I have no clue how much that is, but I don't think that the budget mentioned would be but a drop in the bucket, and the effect much more limited than if applied directly to the people who need it. The discussion also reminded me of the TED lecture years ago by Rutger Bregman ( https://www.ted.com/talks/rutger_bregman_poverty_isn_t_a_lack_of_character_it_s_a_lack_of_cash )

@mauritslamers @nikclayton @jgg 100% this is the core problem. Infinite money in politics. He who has the gold makes the rules, written into law via Citizens United.

@codinghorror @nikclayton @jgg to paraphrase Douglas Adams: people who are most motivated by power or money are, ipso facto, the people least suited to wield it.

@mauritslamers @nikclayton @jgg citizens united invalidated all that with a single stroke of nine justice's pens. Until we get rid of citizens united and/or form another country where citizens united does not apply, it is completely irrelevant.