Am I wrong to assume that Le Pen would win the election if putin didn't invade Ukraine?
There is a @DarthPutinKGB quote somewhere in this
@kreyren she wasn't doing too great in polls I saw prior to the crisis either. If anything, the race tightened just in the final ~month.
@takloufer Dunno i saw her doing good in pre-crisis
@kreyren hmm, so this is the poll avg from the wiki. Doesn't look likely to me at any point, and thr closest it got was well into the war
@takloufer French polls are difficult to read to and they usually show the actual result at the time of election to avoid unfair voter influence, but it was projected to be a tight race way before the war
@kreyren idk, seems to me they've been polling potential matchups incl ofc this one consistently since 2019, just look at the tables w all the polls and pollsters - its massive, as well as the edit history - its been public all this time. Her 1st rnd showings were somewhat better at points, (though not in the months pre-crisis) perhaps thats what you saw: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election
