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@freemo @pj Sources for my comment:

npr.org/2021/06/02/1002107670/

nytimes.com/2018/05/24/opinion

I take that view from the publications of these historians.

The often stated view of individuals being armed against the government seems to me to be a bit shakier in view of how the fledgling US government responded to things like the Whiskey rebellion. If they sincerely wanted individuals to be able to shoot federal agents, they would not have responded so strongly to those attacks.

@rrb @pj

Fair. I suspect the desire to be armed against a slave rebellion is why today the south is a bit more gun happy... but still doesnt explain why the north was so progun as well.

@freemo @pj Slavery was definitely not the only factor in drafting the 2nd amendment.

Also, the colonies were more rural at that time than most of the USA is now and the country as a whole was in a more precarious state.

I feel that a lot of the division on gun rights in the USA is a rural/urban divide. Living at my uncle's ranch in West Texas, you really need a gun for pest control, etc. In the college town where I live now, a gun really has zero utility. So residents of those two regions will have a legitimate difference of opinion.

Finding that guns provide a "sense of meaning to your life" as stated in the Scientific American article is not something I would be able to accept anyway. Neither do I get a sense of self from my car, house, etc.

@rrb @freemo

Many, especially younger, people get a sense of self from things such as guns, cars, and boats, but that's not the point.

A "well-regulated militia" doesn't mean everyone can simply buy an assault rifle at the nearby grocery store. You can't do this in Switzerland or Israel where I believe everyone that is supposed to, have a gun, but, afaik, there are no mass shootings like in the US.

Something is wrong with a society where you can't drive a car without a permit or even a medical exam if you are of a certain age, but you can own a gun without any restrictions.

@pj @rrb

Also for the record i think the requirement of a permit to drive a car is an i justice as well. It should be a garunteed freedom.

@freemo @rrb

Yes. Let the bad drivers expunge themselves naturally, either by dying after hitting a tree or being killed when they hit someone having a gun.😀

If you take this stance then requiring proof of competence or professional credentials from let's say, engineers, medical personnel, and similar jobs where one can do lots of harm if they don't know what they are doing is also an attack on their freedom.

Everyone should be allowed to build and sell highrises and airplanes using whatever or no standards, as they like. That's their freedom. If people die when one of those fails, who cares, they should have known better and protected themselves.

Alternatively, their families (with guns) can get such bad actors permanently out of business so only the "good ones" will remain.

Actually, this may work😀

@pj @rrb

Many states dont require boating licenses, works out just fine for the boaters. You also dont need a license to fly an ultralight plane, even with a passanger, works out well there too.

As for high rises, same thing, make sure someone is checking the highrise meets code in its planning and building phase, as long as it does its safe to build regardless of ghe credentials of the person who designed it.

We have countless examples of this sort of stuff being very workable and safe without needing licensing by having other mechanisms that ensure safety.

@freemo @rrb

That's all I'm asking: effective collective "mechanisms that ensure safety" enforced by the community, elected government, or whatever, that work for the vast majority of their constituents.

Giving everyone guns and saying that this is for their protection just doesn't work for most people, despite what Jefferson was thinking when he said that having a gun will more likely prevent someone from attacking them.

@pj @rrb

What we know is that gubs arent the solution, but we know they arent the problem either. Banning them in a violent society makes things more violent. Im willing to suspect in a peaceful society banning them or not has no effect.

The solutions lie in changing our environments to be healthy, and improving access to mental health (which by the way is the exact opposite of what woukd haplen kf we toom away gun rights from people who seek therapy and get diagnosed)

@freemo @rrb
That's the thing you think having a gun is a *right* while I believe it is a *privilege*, you have to first assure the community you will not do them harm if they give you that privilege.

@pj @rrb

No the right vs privilage argument is secondary for me... im a scientist i care about what works. What i know is the numbers show almost every time, you ban guns it either has no net benefit or, more kften, causes violent acts, especially rape, to sky rocket.

I support guns because banning them takes lives.

@pj @rrb

And the whole schizophrenic thing... doesnt matter if you thinknifs a privilage or a right. If you tell people they will no longer have access to guns and the ability tonuse it to protect themselves if thry go seek therapy and happen to get a mental health diagnosis, then leople will avoid therapy... you just made things way worse not better.

@freemo @rrb I don’t understand how's having a gun to protect oneself from a sick (or just evil) person is a better solution than making sure those people can't get a gun in the first place.
Using more guns to protect against bad people with guns is only good for gun manufacturers.
And nobody is asking the outright *banning* of guns, just to make sure peoplw that want them have the capacity to use them safely.

@pj @rrb

Because guns are an ewualizer.. a woman without a gun against a man without a gun, thry are on equal footing.

Almost always its the stronger praying on thr weaker. Guns equalize that.

@freemo @rrb

This is not in the Wild West anymore. I thought the government as an instrument of a civilized society was responsible for the protection of its citizens, especially the weak.

You say these people would be alive today if only they had guns. I believe some of them may have owned one, and one of the people killed, a police officer Const. Heidi Stevenson had used her and died anyway:

atlantic.ctvnews.ca/a-look-at-

@pj @rrb

No its not the wild west, and in theory polkce shoukd orotect us... but in practice thst makes little sense. Police come when you call them and there is going to be a delay no matter how well funded. You cant even call police if your being jumped or raped most of the time.

In the end its great to talk about ideals and what shoukd be or shouldnt be. But we have to schknowledge reality, and the reality is that in most incidents the police will never be a reliable security.

For example only 46% of violent crimes in general are reported, i suspect much less for rape. Of those reported only 30% even result in an arrest. Its clear from these numbers very very few, if any, rape cases are acted on by police and prevented.

@freemo @rrb

It is not just the police. Their role is to react to incidents and investigate afterward. I'm talking about . Gun ownership regulation is a part of it but not all.

The killer in this instance had a history of domestic abuse and obvious mental issues but nobody bothered to check his guns, two of which were smuggled from the US.

@pj @rrb

If someone is smuggling in guns and giving them to people that currently arent legally allowed guns, i think youd find everyone would agree that needs to be prevented.

@freemo @rrb

Yes, and it would help a lot if the country from where they are smuggled wouldn't sell them like cupcakes.

One has to register appliances these days, but guns? God forbid.

@pj @rrb

The issue with gun registration is that one day thr government may become oppressive and make guns illegal and thrn those registrations can be used by an oppessive govt.

The other issue is profiling. Cops might use registrations to target people as suspected and as such owning a gun, even if you never use it, makes you a target of wrongful arrest.

We already have a "one-way" system that is essentially a registrstion. As long as you have a gun or its serial number you can track it back to who owned it, but not the other way around. Assuming it is all legal of course.

@freemo @rrb

This is a "strawman" argument. You can't base your current safety policies on the remote possibility that the government may one day become oppressive.

All governments are more or less oppressive but the good thing is that they don't survive for too long and inevitably collapse when they become too oppressive.

@pj @rrb

My argumebt was only half about that. The other hakf was about profiling, whicb we all know would and is an issue right now.

Having a gun in and of itself, something that is a rigbt, shoukd not be able to be used to generate suspicion, which is the only real ourpose of a register.

Now if you susoect someone because of actual evidence, then you have the right, and can, search the records and lookup based on the serial number.

Its the same reason cops cant look up who is poor in order to create a list of suspects for a robbery.

@freemo @pj Registry would be useful for tracking guns used in crimes. Which I see as a positive use case.

@rrb @pj

You already have that its just carefully designed to be one way. If you have a gun used in a crime you can track it to its owner. What you cant do is pull up all people in an area that own guns as you coukd with a normal registry.... just as it shoukd be.

@freemo @pj Most gun sales are not record. Only 40% of sales are recorded:

aap.org/en/advocacy/state-advo

Most (60%) are not recorded with no background checks. This does not deal with 3-D printing of guns

@rrb @pj

That link has no information about record of sales.. talks about percentage that are federally licensed or not, nothing else...

@rrb @pj

Ok so just checked... all gu sales in all ststes by dealers (this appesrs to inckude gun shows) require record keeping.

Private sales only requires record keeping in 19 states, though these are demcrat states mostly so thry do represent thr overwhelming majority of the usa population.

I woukd be ok with supporting a federal law that extended the record keeping requirements on gun sales as they currently exist toninckude all private sales.

@freemo @pj How about laws mandating safe storage?

Currently 1/3 of guns stolen are not secured in parked cars. Secure boxes for parked cars are inexpensive, as are trigger locks.

@rrb @pj

I think existing liability law could probably handle that well enough... if you have something stolen and were negligent about storage you might have some liability.

That said id be willing to explore it.

My only concern there is

1) the rules for storage cant be prohibitive such as requiring a safe which many people wont have money or access to

2) the user should be allowed to keep it unlocked and without a trigger lock at a minimum while they are home ao in the case of a home invasion thry have quick access to it

One might expect that if you keep a gun at home youd take reasonable precautions if you left town such as security camera or somethibg maybe. As long as the two concerns above are properly balanced i would consider more discussion about ways we could better address this.

@rrb @freemo @pj it’s interesting how much one’s views are moulded by one’s environment. “Home invasion” is just not something we think of in the UK. Because, absent easy guns, it is astonishingly rare. And as it is astonishingly rare I feel no need - in my isolated house in the country - to have anything at hand for “defence”. I guess had I been brought up in the US I would have a different attitude. And there are counties with high rates of gun ownership but low rates of gun crime - but usually they seem to have guns as a result of military training and have a less casual regard for them.

@DutyBard

Its not the easy access to guns that makes it so rare. Most home invasions in the USA are done by people without guns, largely because if they are robbing your home they are like drug addicted and/or poor and never had the money for a gun.

The reason home invasions in the UK is rare is likely many other factors such as how children are raised or easier access to mental health.

In fact when the UK banned guns violent crimes of all sorts skyrocketed and never really recovered. So from a relative perspective this seems contrary to the facts.

@rrb @pj

@freemo @rrb @pj just looked up comparative gun death rates: USA is 51 times more than UK. That is a lot.

@DutyBard

Sure, and do you understand why that statistic isnt just irrelevant to the conversation but intellectually dishonest...

I said this elsewhere in a co-thread but ill say it again.

**Of course** gun deaths are less in countries that ban or restrict guns.. much in the same way that vaccine deaths would be less in any country that bans vaccines. That is an argument people use who are trying to use stats to manipulate people rather than provide a fair and objective argument. The argument for guns is that it **prevents non-gun deaths** not that it prevents gun deaths. Much as the argument for vaccines is that it prevents non-vaccine related deaths, not for presenting death by vaccine.

@rrb @pj

@freemo

You for sure have a lot of examples or even statistics that shows how many good people with guns avoided being killed or raped by people without guns.

@DutyBard @rrb

@pj

Yea there is no shortage of examples of guns saving lives, and there are admifditly a lot of examples of them taking lives... the key is figuring out which one is larger.. the problem is we document murder with a gun far more rigerously than we document murder-prevention with a gun.

@DutyBard @rrb

@freemo

Any idea where to find out more or maybe an analysis about such occurrences?

Does the NRA maybe keep record and track such instances? If I was in their position and making the argument that "more guns in the hands of good people is stopping bad people with and without guns" I would have a database of such instances and constantly trumpet them to the public but I don't recall having seen anything like that.

@DutyBard @rrb

@pj @freemo @DutyBard Reliable data is hard to come by. Johns Hopkins Center on Gun Violence:

jhsph.edu/research/centers-and

and Adam Winkler:

law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-p

are the ones I would trust. The NRA got laws passed forbidding the federal government to keep statistics on gun violence. Which kind of makes the case that they are afraid of the data.

@rrb @freemo @DutyBard

From everything (not much) that I was able to find on the topic, this one seems like a pretty decent, leveled accounting of the matter:

thetrace.org/2022/06/defensive

@pj @freemo @DutyBard Seems reasonable, although, I would posit that defensive gun use is pretty objective. If I see kids on my lawn and brandish a firearm to scare them, for me it may seem to be defensive gun use for them it is aggression.

In any case, gun violence is now the #1 cause of death among young people in the USA. Gun deaths are higher in states with laxer laws. They are increasing over time. If you compare the USA with, for example, Australia which is culturally pretty similar, some conclusions seem pretty clear.

@pj @freemo @DutyBard

Curious about reactions to the stats in this:
ttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/american-shootings-guns.html

@rrb @pj @DutyBard

Paywall means i cant read.. but based kn the title it stands a good chance of beibg a bad faitb argument like i described.

A gun in the house is more likely when you live in an area that is dangerous. Therefore even if the correlation exists it isnt in good faith to the intended argument which is causation

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj

> In 2020, more than 4,300 young people died in America from firearms; the figure in the Netherlands for 2019 was two.

Netherlands is a tiny little country and it says nothing about other forms of violence and accidents to see if this is an alarming anomaly.

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Those comments are quite reasonable. One could do it per capita. I would suspect that overall violent death still higher in USA. We have a declining life expectancy, which is an OECD anomaly.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I agree it's possible we have an overall higher violent death per capita, but it's not something that can be drawn from an opinion piece from the new york times.

If we assume for a moment that we do have more violence (I don't think we are #1 in that area, but for the sake of argument), the question should be how to quell the violence not how to change it's form. Why do we seem to have a higher percentage of our population willing to become violent to get what they want. Is it a higher percentage or is there a lot of recidivism? If so is there any way to reduce that? If not what needs to change in our culture? It can't simply be access to guns the problem of violence starts before you grab a weapon.
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj An interesting side note. NYT headquarters was once a target of rioters, and they defended the building with privately owned automatic weapons.

> At Newspaper Row, across from City Hall, Henry Raymond, owner and editor of The New York Times, averted the rioters with Gatling guns, one of which he manned. The mob, instead, attacked the headquarters of abolitionist Horace Greeley's New York Tribune until forced to flee by the Brooklyn Police.

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/harp/0801.html
@DutyBard @freemo @pj @rrb I think if we looked at an opinion piece from the New York Times around that time their position was a little bit different. I seem to remember part of a quote from the owner at the time something about "judicious use of lead".

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @pj @rrb

Equivelant argument: vaccine deaths were 1000x more likely in countries where vaccines are legal.... yea the argument makes no sense when you really look at it

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj It is an opinion piece. He cites statistics to bolster his argument. Both are legit. He is not falsely claiming his opinions are facts, but opinions should be interpretations of facts.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj yeah no I get it. It's just when a writer cites statistics they should probably take care to make sure they are at least normalizing the data in some way (unless of course it helps support their opinion not to I guess)

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj

Stating the stats per capita would have been better and more effective.

I see comparing the death rates of say auto fatalities, diseases, and gun violence in the same regions eye opening. Since it is in the same geographic location, that gets rid of a lot of extraneous factors.

The declining life expectancy in the USA is shocking and worrisame.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj

> The declining life expectancy in the USA is shocking and worrisame.

agreed. I don't think it's a single variable problem though. I think a big part is actually diet related. Diabetes and heart disease are our number 1 killers if I'm not mistaken. There are other issues too such as environmental toxicity and lack of movement contributing to poor health.

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Diet. Health care system. Poverty. Guns. Suicide. Alcoholism. Addiction. Overdoses. All play a part.

Does not paint a pretty picture. No doubt there are many interacting factors.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I don't think we have a great system, but it's better than giving government full control. It would be cool to get it out of the hands of pharma. Not sure government helps that happen. They seem to make it worse. Guns don't kill people without there being intent so again, no, but yes on the other points. Sadly we are a vice nation.

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj I never mentioned government. I am actually a bit more concerned about fear mongering and marketing guns for self defense. I think that is inciting people to carry guns around in a state of panic. I know when I was growing up the men in my family really looked down on pistols as being inaccurate guns and not very useful. The idea of carrying around hidden pistols would have not been seen favorably at all.

For example, you would not have road rage shootings if people were not driving around with pistols.

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Having lived in Europe and the USA, my main take away is that the US health insurance companies are abominations.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I think the need for insurance is an abomination. A doctor shouldn't be so ladden with debt that they can't charge reasonable prices for mundane and routine things . that alone would make exceptional cases more manageable without a need for insurance.
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I should be able to work with a local doctor and not need a national or international intervention.

@rrb @thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @pj

Having lived in both and gotten surgeries in both europe, the usa, and been treated extensively arou d the world i agree, the usa healthcare is an abomination, and the quality of care outside of the usa is also an abomination just in didferent ways.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj you behave as if making guns illegal makes them poof out of existence. Someone has to collect them. There are more guns (that we know of) then people.

There are so many other forms of violence and no way to expect police to protect everyone so people must be allowed the opportunity to defend themselves against unwarranted violence. Firearms equalize the equation and give less capable would be victims an opportunity to defend against an attack they otherwise couldn't. Why take that away? Why are we going in circles?
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I think it's sad we can't collect and process those kinds of statistics in more real time. The most recent numbers are always a few years behind current_year.

@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj It was illegal for CDC to collect gun violence statistics at all until recently.

@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj and I still don't see how a disease center needs to collect violence statistics.
@rrb @thatguyoverthere @freemo @pj Probably because violence isn't a disease. And wtf is 'gun violence' and how is it difference from 'pushed out of window violence', 'beaten with a bowling trophy violence' or Britain's favorite 'hacked to death with a machete violence'?

@freemo @pj @DutyBard Being more likely to have a gun if you live in a dangerous area would imply that white Republicans are more likely to live in bad areas:

pewresearch.org/social-trends/

@rrb @pj @DutyBard no it wouldnt, factor a effecting you having a gun doesnt mean factor b falls under factor a. There can and are many factors.

@freemo @pj @DutyBard If most gun owners are white, Republican and rural, then I have trouble accepting that people with guns are mainly in dangerous areas, unless rural areas with white Republicans are more dangerous.

@rrb @pj @DutyBard

Actually being black is far more a factor for gun ownership than being white.

That aside no, if race or party are factors, and so is crime, you cant assume most republicans are in high crime areas.

You really need to brush up on your data science

@freemo @pj @DutyBard I know base rates. but gun ownership is highly skewed by party. The Republican/Democrat divide is pretty close. So, without doing the algebra, if gun ownership is highly skewed towards high crime areas....

The Venn diagram would have to be really weird for that to not be the case.

@rrb @pj @DutyBard

You can have it be highly skewed for violent areas and highly skewed for republican areas while still allowing republican areas to be rich (though thatisnt necceseraly reality).

So lets look at real numbers. 36% of republicans make under 15k a year. Similarly 63% of democrats are under 15k.

So roughly speaking 1/3 of poor high crime areas (you are assuming this is the same but ok) is republican while 2/3 democrat. Oversimplification but sure.

So now why cant the democrat areas have 10% .ore guns than a low crim democrat area, and republican area the same, also have 10% more.. how is this invalidated just because republican areas will have more guns since they are republican and in high crime at the same time, so they have 2 factors while the deocrat areas have one factor...

Your logic is making no sense.

@freemo @pj @DutyBard

Similar questions as previous opinion, different opinions. I do not agree with his conclusions, since peer nations with lower mortality have more regulations. He has the questions and factors right, I think

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/

@rrb @pj @DutyBard

Why woukd data about peer nations and correlations have any effect on your opinion? We know for a fact correlation has no relevance to causation, and tests that show causation contradict you.

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