BakuninsTraum @BakuninsTraum@qoto.org

Conclusion:

The thesis that excess mortality is a consequence of a lockdown has been refuted. The regression line intersects the X-axis, i.e. there is no excess mortality where there are no infections. /16

The creation of IgG starts 7-10 days after the first symptoms appear. In the first week the sensitivity is only about 30%. From the 3rd week onwards IgG reaches a sensitivity of about 94%.

The IgG antibody tests were recorded in the following periods: /15

Regions without excess mortality, or with less than 500 deaths in the period of their respective excess mortality, were filtered out to minimize scatter effects in a small population. (Only 1.3% of excess mortality in Spain is affected by this filtering). /14

Data table:

This is the correlation with the data of the 2nd data collection round.

The Y-axis describes the percentage excess mortality of the respective Spanish region, weighted by the number of days in which the EM was present in the period from 09/03/2020 to 05/11/2020. /13

This graph shows the correlation of IgG positive tests with excess mortality in different regions of Spain of the first data collection round.

The x-axis describes the percentage of positive IgG antibody tests in the 1st round of the Spanish antibody study. /12

The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies also varies greatly: /11

The excess mortality is very different in various parts of the country: /10

I used the results of this epidemiological study as a basis for my analysis:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/ciudadanos/ene-covid/docs/ESTUDIO_ENE-COVID19_INFORME_FINAL.pdf

I also used data from the following report on excess mortality:
https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/MoMo/Documents/informesMoMo2020/MoMo_Situacion%20a%2021%20de%20septiembre_CNE.pdf

/9

In the following, I have investigated how the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in the different parts of Spain correlates with the associated excess mortality rate. /8

If the collateral damage hypothesis would be correct, then the level of excess mortality would be independent of the occurrence of infection. /7

The lockdown began on the 14th March and came to an end with the nationwide start of Phase 0 of the 4-phase plan on the 9th May. The end of the lockdown proceeded differently in the individual parts of the country, so that no comparative studies are possible after may 9th. /6

Further reasons for Spain as a study object,

3. there is a large antibody study that shows how high the incidence of infection was in the different parts of the country.

4. the lockdown started everywhere in Spain at the same time and was equally strict everywhere. /5

Why Spain?

1. there was a huge excess mortality in Spain
2. Spain had the strictest lockdown in Europe

The points 1. and 2. seem to confirm the collateral damage thesis. /4

63% excess mortality in Spain between 11 March and 9 May 2020:

There would be more suicides and deaths due to postponed medical examinations, neglected elderly care, etc. Some also claim that people have died out of sheer panic.

In the following I will refute this collateral damage thesis using the example of Spain. /3

When the real existing excess mortality could no longer be denied, it was claimed to be a consequence of the corona measures. They said these deaths were mainly a consequence of the lockdown. /2

+++ No Collateral Excess Mortality Due to Lockdown

Thread in 18 parts

From Corona deniers you can hear again and again that one does not die FROM but WITH Corona. According to this there should not be any excess mortality. /1

RT @erstmal_denken
@C_Siemering @SHomburg Dazu passt auch sehr gut diese Analyse aus Spanien:

Bei überall gleichem Lockdown sind dort am meisten gestorben, wo am meisten infiziert waren.
Da wo es kaum Infizierte gab, gab es trotz dem selben Lockdown keine Übersterblichkeit.

https://twitter.com/BakuninsT/status/1309568085498757120

Siehe oben
Thread in 17 Teilen

@aloa5
@Atomreisfleisch
@CarstenBKK
@erstmal_denken
@epsilon3141
@JesseJames19861
@KonProg
@MangaVenaqui
@Michael56986218
@NerdyGerdyMan
@OttoKolbl
@RadioJerewan
@roberto_blanko
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IMHO: Der Lockdown in Spanien hat zigtausende Leben gerettet. Dennoch bin ich der gleichen Meinung wie Tomas Pueyo. Wegen der zweiten Welle ist momentan ein erneuter landesweiter Lockdown weder in Spanien noch sonst irgendwo in Europa notwendig. /17
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RT @tomaspueyo
What's going on in Europe? Is there a 2nd wave? What can we expect in the coming weeks? Thread.

Europe had a terrible 1st wave, beat it at the beginning of the summer, b…
https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302215472415297536

Ich finde es verblüffend wie nahe die Datenpunkte trotz der simplen Aufbereitung in der Nähe der Regressionsgeraden liegen.

Es wäre besser etwas mehr Aufwand zu betreiben und die tagesgenaue akkumulierte Exzessmortalität im gleichen Zeitintervall als Y-Werte zu verwenden. /16