#清朝真正統治整個台灣的時間不超過10年
【喪失一寸領土都算「國恥」的想法是我們現代人才有的觀念,對於「大清皇帝」來說,觀念是反過來的,大清皇帝的想法是:「我看得起你,才把你納入管轄」
….
我舉一段真實的歷史讓大家感受一下,大清皇帝對於「增加在台灣的領土範圍」的真實感受。
那是大清嘉慶11年的事情。當時有一則《明發上諭》(聖旨)「朕聞滬尾以北,山內有膏腴之地一處」「向來為逆犯所窺伺,近來屢次在該地出沒,意圖搶占」「命人詢察此處係何地名,派令官兵前往,籌備見機辦理」。
這裡說的「滬尾」,就是當時清朝統治台灣最「北」的行政區相當於今天的「淡水」,再過去的台北盆地東部,就不屬於大清版圖了。所以皇帝才會不知道當地地名….
然後,三年後的嘉慶14年,後續來了:「蛤仔難北境居民,現已聚至六萬餘人」「且於逆犯窺伺之時,協力備禦,幫同殺賊」「實為深明大義,自應收入版圖,豈可置之化外」。
這裡說的「蛤仔難」,就是今天的宜蘭,這則《明發上諭》,就是清朝把原本不屬於版圖的「宜蘭」,納入版圖的過程。這是宜蘭,那麼花蓮與台東呢?很抱歉,那些地方皇上沒留意就繼續當「化外之地」了。】
"李仙得之所以重要,除了因1867年來台處理在恆春半島龜仔角(Qunans)社發生船難的「羅發號(Rover)事件」外;
1872年日本政府破例以年薪一萬二千元聘請台灣通李仙得為外務省顧問。
此時,李仙得向日本政府提出了“北佔朝鮮,南佔台灣,滿蒙是日本的生命線”戰略計劃的《第四備忘錄》。
李仙得以其在閩台的經歷,多方鼓勵日本出兵侵台,並成為侵台日軍西鄉從道中將(維新三傑薩摩藩首領人物西鄉隆盛之弟)身邊的重要謀士。
李仙得停留日本之際,正是明治維新轟轟烈烈進行,經濟飛速發展,軍力日漸強盛的時刻。
日本國之國土狹窄,維治維新之後國力興盛,便開始向外擴張侵略,首先便將侵略目標對準台灣島。"
https://mcy1227-2.blogspot.com/2019/04/charles-w-le-gendre.html
Invisible Nation is director Vanessa Hope’s intimate view of the presidency of Taiwan’s sitting head of state, Tsai Ing-wen, as she fights for the future of her nation.
2024大選因為世界局勢的變化而更受世界矚目:
WSJ認為這次大選三名主要候選人都對中國保持距離:
"With voters set to cast their ballots for a new leader in a volatile three-way election next month, Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. The change in mood is evident in public-opinion polls—and even in the campaign of the opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang."
大選前夕的新加坡觀點帶著濃濃北京悲觀味:
[ A poll in September found that 48.9 per cent of Taiwanese favoured formal independence, with less than 27 per cent in support of maintaining the status quo.
"Maybe in the long run, a DPP victory in 2024 isn't the worst outcome," said Hunzeker. "The worst outcome could be if KMT wins the election in 2024 and Beijing concludes, we can't even rely on the KMT." ]
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/beijings-dilemma-dpp-wins-taiwan-093000899.html
彭博算台海風險帳給大家看:
“根據彭博經濟研究製表,若台海爆發戰爭,對全球GDP造成的損失恐超過2020年COVID-19(2019冠狀病毒疾病)疫情、2009年全球金融危機、1991年波斯灣戰爭、2001年美國911恐怖攻擊及2023年以色列與哈瑪斯戰爭。
而一旦台灣遭到封鎖對全世界GDP造成的損失則會介於全球金融危機和波灣戰爭之間。”
地緣政治讓台灣本次大選備受矚目:
"摩根資產管理(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)亞太區首席市場策略師許長泰(Tai Hui)向MarketWatch解釋說,台灣即將舉行的選舉具有很高的地緣政治重要性,因為這次選舉將在中長期內對美國和中國的關係產生影響。"
本次三角督讓外國觀察大選感到棘手😆
[ “This is the hardest election to forecast in at least two decades,” said Kharis Templeman, a scholar of Taiwan politics and a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “It’s a real three-way race.”
For Taiwan’s backers in Washington, the uncertainty of who wins the election will be matched only by the question of how China might respond to any electoral outcome—especially one it regards as inimical to its interests. ]
外國人觀察台灣大選很容易被這種嘉年華氣氛所迷惑😆
[ “You, of course, also find plenty of Taiwanese people who are very cynical about their politics,” said Mark Harrison, a senior lecturer at the University of Tasmania in Australia who studies Taiwan’s political culture, “but at the end of the day what brings out 50,000 people at a rally is a belief in their democracy, and right now, especially, that commitment has something to teach the rest of the world.”
「當然也能找到不少台灣人對他們的政治非常憤世嫉俗,」馬克·哈利森說,他是在澳洲塔斯馬尼亞大學研究台灣政治文化的高級講師,「但到頭來,讓5萬人參加集會的是他們對民主的信仰,尤其是現在,這種投入是世界其他地方需要學習的東西。」]
https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240112/taiwan-election-democracy-loud/zh-hant/dual/
民主社會對任何共產政權來說都是威脅:
[ What China has been trying to do is use Taiwan as a test ground,” Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, told me. “If they are able to make a difference in this election, I’m sure they are going to try and apply this to other democracies.”
「中國試圖做的是把台灣當成一個試驗場,」台灣外交部長吳釗燮對我說。「如果他們能對這場選舉形成影響,我確信他們也會對別的民主政體嘗試使用這些方法。」]
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20240111/taiwan-elections-china/zh-hant/dual/
2024大選的外媒報導就從老牌BBC開始,放這串回應中國介選手段:
英媒在預測後續這方面向來保守:
比較意外美國PBS也報了台灣大選:
補個印度新媒體的南亞看法:
選前跟馬英九一起紅了一把的德國之聲一開頭就點出第三回執政這個重點:
右翼立場的英媒也看出英德交棒的穩定特質:
WSJ則很直白指出國會拖後腿這點:
"In his victory speech, Lai reiterated a campaign pledge to uphold the status quo and promised to work with his political rivals, who have taken a more accommodating stance toward Beijing. The ruling DPP lost control of the legislature after Saturday’s vote—limiting Lai’s ability to set Taiwan onto a drastically different path."
不敢跟WSJ一樣把台灣大選報導放頭版的紐時挑剔猴猴華語口音實在太好笑了:
"Even the Nationalist Party, known for favoring closer ties with Beijing, emphasized deterrence, the status quo and Taiwanese identity. Its candidate, Hou Yu-ih, spoke with such a strong Taiwanese accent that Mandarin speakers unfamiliar with local inflections had a hard time understanding him.
就連以主張與中國建立更密切關係聞名的國民黨也強調威懾、維持現狀,以及台灣人的認同。國民黨候選人侯友宜的國語發音帶有特別濃重的台腔,以至於不熟悉本地發音習慣的人很難聽懂他說什麼。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240114/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis/zh-hant/dual/
雖然對紐時的親北京立場感到鄙夷, 但說賴這個第三任期考驗嚴苛這點倒是非常正確的:
"“How to keep the trust of the people, how to keep politics clean and above board: that’s what a mature political party has to face up to,” Mr. Wang said. “You must always keep in mind that the public won’t allow much room for mistakes.”
「你怎麼樣去讓人民相信你,保持政治的清廉乾淨,這個是成熟型政黨要面對的,」王定宇說。「然後一定要謹記,民眾不會給你太多空間犯錯,他不會原諒你。」
https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20240115/taiwan-election-lai/zh-hant/dual/
對於只有台灣選舉唱票這點感到驚訝: 其他國家都不怕作票疑慮嗎?
"「亞洲自由民主聯盟」(CALD)執行主任阿萊格(Celito Arlegue)來台觀選6次,他對台灣開票人員高速機械式的唱票覺得不可思議。這次在台灣看到投票與計票,同團的菲律賓自由黨官員因此呼籲,菲國應摒棄現行的機器計票,恢復手動方式。
阿萊格也以較宏觀的方式看待台灣這次大選的意義,「如果無法守護台灣的民主,將對區域造成很大的影響,對東南亞而言更是如此,因為我們總是把台灣看作民主燈塔」。"
國會拖後腿可能造成的影響:
[ “A divided government likely will make arms purchases and military reforms both much harder to pass, which could strain U.S. relations,” said Timothy S. Rich, a professor of political science specializing in East Asia at Western Kentucky University. ]
美國之音的報導則剪入美中雙方對大選結果的反應:
中國現在的首要介選目標大概就是米國了~
[ 美國去年12月解密的情報評估顯示,自2020年以來,中國高級官員全面指示中國特工:“加強影響美國政策和輿論,使之有利中國”。中國高級官員的目標是“擴大美國社會分歧”。 這些方法包括使用虛假社群媒體帳號在網路上攻擊美國政客。根據美國情報文件,這些指示在2022年期中選舉前,可能給予中國特工“更多的行動自由”。 微軟去年9月警告表示,中國特工利用人工智慧生成的自由女神像以及其他美國生活象徵的圖像,在網路上模仿美國選民,挑起觀點分裂的政治議題討論。]
@Perfume 選前選後PBS跟NPR都有報喔。
雖然措辭還是「self-governing island democracy」那種很傳統不得罪口国的口吻
"How did the doc germinate?
Vanessa: Well, I had this sense that Taiwan is an important story that shouldn’t just be wedged into a U.S./China story. So when I finished my first film, I continued tracking developments there. I have a background in foreign policy. I worked at the Council on Foreign Relations. I felt there is this gap between that world and mainstream audiences, particularly in film. You see it now with what’s happening in Israel/Palestine and with Ukraine. People don’t know how to talk about what’s going on. If we are ever going to get to a place where there is better understanding, diplomacy and peace in the world, you have to at first be able to talk about these issues.
What baffled me when I went to work at the Council on Foreign Relations was: How in the world did our American foreign policy experts set up this country [Taiwan] in a position where it couldn’t avoid being a flashpoint for World War III? How did that happen? "
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/invisible-nation-taiwan-doc-vanessa-ted-hope-1235788560/?fbclid=IwAR1bVbw_8EF4xbiV1hoahltly5IFWF3wmXJrXkW-YEeggnN6v9IAJH_g344