美國國防情報局的聽證會聚焦在美中俄的策略競爭膠結:
[ The hearing focused on a number of threats to the United States, including Chinese activity related to Taiwan, Africa, advances in technology, and Russia’s development of hypersonic weapons. “The nature and scope of the national security environment in which we operate is largely shaped by strategic competition – the continuous push-pull among the United States, China and Russia for global strength and influence,” said Berrier. ]
空軍雜誌報導該場聽證會中, 美國情報單位認為中國預期在2027年能阻止或擊敗第三方軍事介入的情況下, 在幾場高強度短暫軍事衝突中武統台灣. (轉頭看日本: 變綁定附件了?
"By 2027, China expects to be able to win a small number of brief but high-level military conflicts—“including the forcible unification of Taiwan”—while deterring, dissuading, or defeating any third-party military intervention. By 2050, China plans to be the dominant world military power. "
熱線什麼的肯定不甩你美國的啦, 中國才不想留話柄被束手束腳咧~
" Hotlines between military and civilian leadership was a safety feature of the rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. But as China’s military might has risen in relation to Russia’s, efforts to establish enduring lines of crisis communications between Washington and Beijing have failed.
President Bill Clinton and General Secretary Jiang Zemin, agreed to establish a hotline in 1997, but it was never put to proper use, even when Nato accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. "
“For a host of reasons, the Chinese have been reluctant to engage deeply in these efforts. China has different calculations on the proper conduct of civil military relations,” ... “They fear that by establishing these mechanisms they give credence and legitimacy to American military exercises and operations near their borders and they don’t want to do that.”
中國企圖竊取俄羅斯潛艇設計:
"The individuals who launched the cyber attack on Rubin are not identified in this report, which only says that the "previously undocumented backdoor [was] assessed to have been developed by a threat actor likely operating on behalf of Chinese state-sponsored interests. Beyond that, the RoyalRoad RTF "weaponizer" is a tool that has become very closely associated with Chinese government-linked entities, known by names like Goblin Panda, Rancor Group, TA428, Tick, and Tonto Team, according to Cybereason and other sources. "
北極熊對四腳龍踩自己地盤表示不爽。
「俄羅斯主要報紙《獨立報》（Независимая Газета）在 5 月 14 日發布專文評論，中國關心美軍從阿富汗撤走後中亞地區的安全，中國正在俄羅斯的後院鞏固影響。
報導中表示，中國積極干涉中亞國家內政，使得莫斯科在幫助中亞國家捍衛主權，削弱中國影響時面臨更大挑戰。過去通常認為中國在中亞的影響集中於經濟，而中亞的安全和政治則由莫斯科操控，但隨著美國撤軍和中國想徹底解決新疆問題，中國與俄羅斯在中亞的這一平衡可能會被打破。」
美俄中的不穩定三角關係:
"Despite sharing a deep disdain for U.S. hegemony and the Western-led international order, China and Russia lack symmetrical interests for natural and sustained cooperation, especially as the disparity between Russia’s low economic complexity and dependence on natural resources relative to China’s diverse and modern economy becomes more evident. A majority of Russia and China’s overlapping economic interests are in energy, due to Russia’s need for a stable market to offset Western sanctions, coupled with China’s growing energy demand and a desire to diversify its energy sources in response to prolonged trade tension with the United States."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/the-modern-china-russia-us-triangle/
這篇則從俄羅斯角度剖析俄印中的聯盟:
"As highlighted in the strategy, the partnership with Beijing and New Delhi is necessary for Moscow to create reliable mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region, to ensure regional stability and security on a non-bloc basis. The 2021 NSS consistently mentions the Asia-Pacific region, which suggests that Russia at the highest level rejects the concept of the Indo-Pacific – or, more specifically, its U.S.-centered version."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/what-russias-national-security-strategy-has-to-say-about-asia/
印太地緣外的俄羅斯觀點反而有局外人的客觀性：
「俄羅斯聯邦自 1991 年蘇聯解體獨立以後，在蘇聯末期經歷過阿富汗塔利班戰爭，隨後經歷了兩次車臣戰爭、喬治亞戰爭、敘利亞的伊斯蘭國（ISIS）剿滅戰爭、克里米亞事件及烏克蘭東部衝突。
經過實戰考驗的俄軍理論認為，現代戰爭的重要特性在於長期性質，已無法將其簡化為決定性的戰爭或一系列決定性的軍事行動。即使是阿富汗戰爭或伊拉克戰爭中的迅速軍事行動，也表明這是長期消耗戰的一環，現代戰爭如果無法一次消滅敵方的有生力量，那就代表這場戰爭很有可能失敗。」
「對於中國而言，佔領台灣的行動失敗，所要付出的代價將是一場絕對的災難，戰爭失敗對於任何國家來說，都會威脅到其本國政權的崩潰。」
徒子徒孫們現在紛紛投共，反攻大陸成了不敢說的過去。
"關於臺灣要反攻大陸一事，蔣介石確實是認真的，也有差一步就要發動的時期。然而，屢屢遭到扮演「剎車器」的美國反對，以致前功盡棄。以防衛臺灣為主要目標的美國，與想要光復大陸、重返榮耀的臺灣，兩者的戰略目標完全不同的情況下，這樣的結果是可想而知的。
這樣一來，單獨反攻是唯一的方法，但是如何克服臺灣海峽成為一大難關。臺灣要獨自運送龐大兵力和物資渡海上岸困難重重，勢必需要美國的協助。得不到美國的支持，蔣介石也不敢恣意妄為，遲遲無法正式發動反攻計畫。
之後，1965年發生的小規模海戰（史稱「八六海戰」），臺灣的海軍突撃隊被中國軍隊徹底擊沉，證明了臺灣要憑一己之力實現反攻大陸根本是不可能的，蔣介石似乎也不得不認清這項事實。"
大笑: 土匪變海盜~
"1950年後，美國艾森豪總統支持蔣介石的閉關政策。隸屬於蘇聯的大型油船陶普斯號，在從中東運輸油料至上海的途中行經台灣海峽，蔣介石認為「此乃俄共資匪物資」，遂派出有不死鳥之稱的丹陽艦攔截。海軍直接派一隊人馬登上船、控制駕駛艙，陶普斯號船長連同船上船員49人就這樣被擄走，送到台灣。
對此蘇聯極為不滿，要求將船隻送還。為了救回船員，蘇聯派遣一支由驅逐艦和護衛艦開至基隆附近海域，試圖威懾蔣介石放人交船，但當時已簽署《中美共同防禦條約》，美國第七艦隊隨即出動防禦，局勢可說是相當緊張，好在後來美蘇雙方都無意為此開戰，這件事才不了了之。
之後，陶普斯號編入海軍艦隊，並改名為會稽號，在台北與高雄之間作為運輸船，船員則被遣送回國。後來蘇聯將此事翻拍成電影，成為1959年蘇聯電影的票房冠軍。"
@Perfume
🤣🤣🤣真的是太好笑了