美國國防情報局的聽證會聚焦在美中俄的策略競爭膠結:
[ The hearing focused on a number of threats to the United States, including Chinese activity related to Taiwan, Africa, advances in technology, and Russia’s development of hypersonic weapons. “The nature and scope of the national security environment in which we operate is largely shaped by strategic competition – the continuous push-pull among the United States, China and Russia for global strength and influence,” said Berrier. ]
空軍雜誌報導該場聽證會中, 美國情報單位認為中國預期在2027年能阻止或擊敗第三方軍事介入的情況下, 在幾場高強度短暫軍事衝突中武統台灣. (轉頭看日本: 變綁定附件了?
"By 2027, China expects to be able to win a small number of brief but high-level military conflicts—“including the forcible unification of Taiwan”—while deterring, dissuading, or defeating any third-party military intervention. By 2050, China plans to be the dominant world military power. "
熱線什麼的肯定不甩你美國的啦, 中國才不想留話柄被束手束腳咧~
" Hotlines between military and civilian leadership was a safety feature of the rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union during the cold war. But as China’s military might has risen in relation to Russia’s, efforts to establish enduring lines of crisis communications between Washington and Beijing have failed.
President Bill Clinton and General Secretary Jiang Zemin, agreed to establish a hotline in 1997, but it was never put to proper use, even when Nato accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. "
“For a host of reasons, the Chinese have been reluctant to engage deeply in these efforts. China has different calculations on the proper conduct of civil military relations,” ... “They fear that by establishing these mechanisms they give credence and legitimacy to American military exercises and operations near their borders and they don’t want to do that.”
中國企圖竊取俄羅斯潛艇設計:
"The individuals who launched the cyber attack on Rubin are not identified in this report, which only says that the "previously undocumented backdoor [was] assessed to have been developed by a threat actor likely operating on behalf of Chinese state-sponsored interests. Beyond that, the RoyalRoad RTF "weaponizer" is a tool that has become very closely associated with Chinese government-linked entities, known by names like Goblin Panda, Rancor Group, TA428, Tick, and Tonto Team, according to Cybereason and other sources. "
北極熊對四腳龍踩自己地盤表示不爽。
「俄羅斯主要報紙《獨立報》（Независимая Газета）在 5 月 14 日發布專文評論，中國關心美軍從阿富汗撤走後中亞地區的安全，中國正在俄羅斯的後院鞏固影響。
報導中表示，中國積極干涉中亞國家內政，使得莫斯科在幫助中亞國家捍衛主權，削弱中國影響時面臨更大挑戰。過去通常認為中國在中亞的影響集中於經濟，而中亞的安全和政治則由莫斯科操控，但隨著美國撤軍和中國想徹底解決新疆問題，中國與俄羅斯在中亞的這一平衡可能會被打破。」
雖然內容正經討論一帶一路下的中亞國家疑中態度, 但標題下得真滿有笑果的....
[ As a report prepared by the Bertelsmann Stiftung (Foundation) baldly stated, “Beijing’s government-to-government relations in Central Asia are warm, but public perception of China is broadly negative.” Indeed, the report noted, “Sinophobia, or what Beijing dismisses as the ‘China threat theory’, is rampant in Central Asia, and represents a major stumbling block to its ambitions.”
A 2020 report by the Caspian Policy Center agreed with that narrative. The public in Caspian nations “tends to view things through the prism of long-standing skepticism” of China, the report found. ]
俄烏戰爭落幕後的中亞將成為俄中雙方一起苦惱的棘手後院:
"不論俄羅斯撤退還是戰敗，戰爭結束後，日子也回不到戰前，因為俄羅斯幾乎已經脫離全球貿易體系，戰後的國內秩序也可能會瓦解，龐大的原物料依然很難回到國際市場；一個常識問題是，一支打到子彈與炮彈都沒有的俄軍，如何贏得歐亞大陸眾多小國家的尊敬？
而俄羅斯剩下的鐵路運送路線，又全部經過中亞大陸廣大政治不穩定地帶。那些火車上運送的物資，能夠安全送到客戶手上嗎？客戶當然包括中國。俄羅斯光是戰敗，對中國傷害並不大；但是俄羅斯因為戰敗而導致境內秩序瓦解，對中國就是一個無盡的噩夢。其中包括即將動盪的新疆與西藏，以及原物料供應從此受制於歐美為首的西方陣營。"
中亞諸國目前忙著靠轉運制裁商品給俄羅斯賺戰爭財:
"去年美國和歐盟向亞美尼亞出口超過850萬美元（台幣2.58億元）的積體電路，是2021年出口價值53萬美元的16倍多。與此同時，亞美尼亞對俄羅斯的電路出口額從2021年的不到2000美元躍升至1300萬美元（台幣3.95億元）。類似的情況出現在西方向吉爾吉斯運送雷射產品，以及向烏茲別克運送測量儀器（包括檢查電壓和功率的工具）。兩國對俄羅斯的出口都有所增加。"
光是亞美尼亞改跟美軍演習這點就夠俄羅斯跳腳了：
“A U.S. military spokesperson said 85 U.S. soldiers and 175 Armenians would take part. He said the Americans - including members of the Kansas National Guard, which has a 20-year-old training partnership with Armenia - would be armed with rifles and would not be using heavy weaponry.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-us-hold-joint-military-drills-sept-11-20-2023-09-06/
亞美尼亞投美送抱的理由:
"帕尼西揚強調，俄羅斯政府並未履行其在 2020 年停戰協議中的義務，按照該協議，俄羅斯維和人員應該控制亞美尼亞本土通往納卡地區的拉欽走廊，但拉欽走廊事實上根本就不被俄羅斯維和人員控制。對此他認為，情況可能是俄羅斯無力控制拉欽走廊，或俄羅斯根本不想控制。"
