中美洲的一帶一路:

“《德國之聲》報導,本月初哥斯大黎加當地媒體爆出中國承包的的道路建設計畫「利蒙公路」(Limon),依據合約必須在一年內完工,但負責的企業「中國港灣」卻聲稱,到2022年5月,無論工程進度,建議哥斯大黎加都要重新簽署承包合約,並向中國申請新貸款。

“2013年時,巴拿馬政府簽署巴拿馬科隆與裝箱港口(PCCP)開發協議,2016年,上海國之傑和嵐橋集團合資收購該項目,並在2017年舉辦動土儀式,當時嵐橋還誇口,工程將會為巴拿馬人提供大量經濟機會,還能構成一帶一路的海上經濟走廊,但4年後,嵐橋集團實際投資不到約定的16.6%,甚至還積欠地租與權利金,而國之傑的實控者高天國,2020年在上海被依違法放貸逮捕。”

news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/bre

一帶一路政策的三個目標:

"AidData said its findings show Beijing has both before and under the Belt and Road plan consistently pursued three goals: turning the enormous haul of dollars earned by the nation’s exporters into foreign loans; keeping its massive domestic construction and industrial sectors busy by pursuing building projects abroad; and securing commodities like oil and grain to plug domestic shortfalls."

wsj.com/articles/hidden-debt-p

路透社這篇十一月就放類似年底檢討時機也是滿微妙的...

"根據中國智庫對一帶一路分析數據,中國在一帶一路的138 個國家中,投資額在 2015 年達到 1252.5 億美元的峰值後,除2018 年小幅增長 6.7%,投資額每年都在下降。去年投資金額降至470億美元,比2019年縮減54%,這是自 2013 年一帶一路倡議推出以來的最低投資金額。

根據國際律師事務所Baker McKenzie的一份報告,在非洲,有 40 個參與一帶一路的國家,中國銀行對基礎設施項目的融資從 2017 年的 110 億美元,下降到 2020 年的 33 億美元。非洲開發銀行稱,非洲大陸每年面臨約 1000 億美元的基礎設施投資赤字。"

"美國威廉瑪麗學院的研究實驗室 AidData在 9 月底的一項研究中表示,2013-2021 年期間,馬來西亞取消115.8 億美元有關一帶一路的建設項目,哈薩克斯坦則取消了近 15 億美元,玻利維亞也放棄了10億美元的投資。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

中央社這張一帶一路雙走廊畫得太簡略了吧:

"研究人員發現,2000年到2022年間,中國向一帶一路主要夥伴非洲貸款約1700億美元,2016年達到逾280億美元的高峰後,過去兩年借貸非洲的額度驟降。"

"研究另發現,雖然先前的多數貸款流入非洲東部和南部國家,2021至2022年則漸漸向西部非洲轉移,流向塞內加爾、貝南和象牙海岸等國。"

cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202309230

各媒體紛紛在一帶一路十周年之際作回顧報導:

"A document published this month by the State Council, China’s cabinet, talked up the economic benefits of BRI participation including increased trade and investment with China. It namechecked significant projects such as a railroad linking Laos with China’s Yunnan province as well as smaller scale endeavors such as the workshops named after an ancient Chinese woodcrafter that today teach people in Africa and Asia technical subjects including robotics. The paper described how China wants to promote deeper cooperation in a host of areas, including the arts, media, health and finance."

wsj.com/world/china/china-rebo

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中央社則細數一帶一路計畫下各區域核心項目:

"中歐班列的歷史更早於「一帶一路」。首發的中歐班列始於2011年,從重慶出發的「渝新歐」,較「一帶一路」的提出早了2年。但是,中歐班列也成為中國政府推進與他國深化經貿合作與「一帶一路」的重要抓手。"

cna.com.tw/news/acn/2023101600

自由則將重心放在普丁跟神學士政權的與會:

"阿富汗神學士發言人週六(14日)表示,神學士代理工商業部長阿吉齊(Haji Nooruddin Azizi)將在近日前往北京參加論壇,並將邀請大型投資者前往阿富汗。

阿富汗神學士發言人還稱,阿吉齊在北京也將繼續與中國當局商討,修建一條穿過瓦罕走廊(Wakhan Corridor)的道路,以直達中國。"

ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaking

WSJ在這場一帶一路十年大戲上配合時事點出中國與巴勒斯坦的老交情:

"China’s stance will play well in the Muslim world, where it has faced some criticism in the past over its treatment of Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Historically, China has maintained closer ties to the Palestinians. It recognized a Palestinian state in 1988, four years before establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Chinese support for the Palestinian cause goes back to the days of Mao Zedong, who saw kinship in the struggle with Western-backed powers."

nytimes.com/2023/10/18/world/a

目前看不到北京放出去的這些美元貸款轉為人民幣壯大人民幣結算圈的動機, 畢竟利率差太多了:

"Chinese banks linked the interest rates for many of their Belt and Road infrastructure loans to international lending rates for dollars. As global interest rates have climbed and the dollar has strengthened, developing countries have been stuck with soaring bills to repay these loans. The economic shock that countries suffered from the pandemic exacerbated their financial problems. China has responded by allowing poor countries to defer some payments, but has resisted calls for debt forgiveness."

"中國的銀行將許多「一帶一路」基礎設施貸款的利率與國際美元貸款利率掛鈎。隨著全球利率攀升和美元走強,發展中國家償還這些貸款的負擔越來越重。疫情對經濟的衝擊也加劇了這些國家的財政問題。中國拿出的辦法是允許貧困國家延期償付部分貸款,但拒絕了免除債務的呼籲。"

cn.nytimes.com/business/202310

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