好奇這次美國是用甚麼好處換到韓國對台海表態的？
＂白宮國安會昨天下午就文在寅到訪舉辦背景簡報時透露，美韓領袖聯合聲明會與上個月的美日聯合聲明一樣，提到中國對台灣的動作，也將會提到整體區域安全及維護和平與穩定，強度上也不會比美日聯合聲明輕。資深官員說，美、日、韓都面臨相同挑戰，而這些挑戰就包括中國。＂
簡單一句話帶過～
「拜登總統和文在寅總統強調維持台海和平穩定的重要性。作為重視多元價值和個人自由的民主國家，無論是在國內外，我們都會以促進人權和法治為共同目的。」
聲明連結：
“ President Biden and President Moon emphasize the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. As democracies that value pluralism and individual liberty, we share our intent to promote human rights and rule of law issues, both at home and abroad.”
南韓外長掃玻璃心ing~
"根據《韓聯社》報導，鄭義溶昨日在新聞節目中明確指出，台灣海峽和平穩定對於區域和平至關重要乃是客觀事實，美韓峰會後發布的聯合聲明是以籠統的措辭在此基礎上加以提及。
對於中國外交部怒批美韓聯合聲明不應損害包括中國在內的第三方的利益，鄭義溶強調，台灣海峽問題需用和平方式解決這點，與南韓面對的北韓問題完全相同，希望中國理解韓方立場。"
南韓外長意圖平衡翹翹板ing~
"就韓方是否與中方討論在韓美聯合聲明中提台灣問題一事，鄭義溶表示，韓中始終保持緊密溝通，韓方堅持在尊重一個中國原則的同時，推動韓美同盟關係和韓中戰略合作夥伴關係協調發展的立場。韓美聯合聲明充分體現出韓方的這些立場。"
https://cb.yna.co.kr/gate/big5/cn.yna.co.kr/view/ACK20210525000100881?section=politics/index
美國這個鬆綁瞄準的沛公雖是西邊的韭國，但金小胖還是森氣氣啦...
"路透社報導，南韓總統文在寅這個月稍早與美國總統拜登首度舉行峰會後，宣布廢除限制南韓研發彈道飛彈射程不得超過800公里的韓美飛彈指南。"
「美國希望南韓在台灣問題上表態，就說明了美國已將朝鮮半島與台灣海峽的問題連結在一起，一起來思考如何在西太平洋圍堵中國，在這樣的大戰略下，朝鮮半島的重要性會下降，而台灣身為第一島鏈的樞鈕，重要性將會快速上升。在川普主政的時代，一直希望削減駐韓美軍的數量，其目的就是要將人力轉移到新的戰略據點，以更有效執行全新的印太戰略。拜登在競選時雖然一直反對削減駐韓美軍的數量，但此次也未積極邀請南韓加入美、日、澳、印四國同盟，這對南韓來說其實是個警訊。
雖然許多人都認為，親中的文在寅是故意不要加入這四國同盟，以避免進一步觸怒北京，但無論原因是什麼，未來這四國同盟，將是美國印太政策的重要基礎。南韓過去都是美國在西太平洋最重要的盟友之一，卻沒有加入這四國同盟，在某種程度上就是被邊緣化。一旦美國的大戰略架構改變，南韓卻仍然維持過去的思維，想要繼續透過中國來制止北韓妄動，就一定會造成美國與南韓的歧見，長期以來一定會鬆動美國與南韓的盟友關係。之前美國駐南韓大使哈里斯與南韓政府的嚴重齟齬，其實就反映出這樣的根本問題。」
因應美方印太戰略下的南韓戰略調整:
"Many military experts have interpreted this to mean that the ROK-U.S. alliance will no longer be focused entirely on the military situation of the Korean Peninsula. In the future, the South Korean military and Combined Forces Command (CFC) of the two countries could become involved in military roles and missions throughout the wider Indo-Pacific region, perhaps in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. In that case, the ROK-U.S. alliance surely needs to be adapted to encompass new concepts of joint operation and new doctrines."
https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/remaking-the-south-korea-us-alliance/
這篇將軍事上的美韓聯盟解釋得很清楚，把極音速飛彈納入討論是較新穎的補充：
＂Nuclear ballistic missiles can be identified, tracked, and classified as incoming threats by missile defense systems, for example those established by the MDA, but PGS and medium-range hypersonic missiles equipped with conventional warheads cannot be intercepted by any missile defense system. It is unclear whether the U.S. prefers hypersonic-capable and conventional PGS weapons to the existing medium-range ballistic missiles with nuclear capability. This uncertainty opens an opportunity for South Korea, now that limitations on its indigenous missile development have been lifted. New South Korean medium-range ballistic missiles would supplement U.S. capability in countering Chinese military threats to Northeast Asian security, as well as deterring the North Korean military threat.＂
https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/like-it-or-not-the-south-korea-us-alliance-is-changing/
美俄對中國發展的極音速飛彈也高度關注:
"Details about the Chinese system are scant. But the system has been described as a rocket that carries a glide vehicle into a low earth orbit. That glide vehicle separates from the rocket and maneuvers toward its target on the ground at a high rate of speed, with a flight path less predictable than that of a typical ballistic missile. U.S. and Russia are also working on hypersonic weapons. "
美中在極音速飛彈的競賽越形明顯:
“There is a potential for weapons to be launched into space, then go through this old concept from the Cold War called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System…which is a system that basically goes into orbit and then de-orbits to a target,”
[ China has about 350 nuclear warheads, one-third of which are on long-range missiles, according to the Arms Control Association, a private group that supports arms-control accords. U.S. officials have projected that Beijing’s small arsenal could at least double over the next decade. ]
現行雷達系統難以即時偵測這種極音速武器是令美俄對此坐立難安的原因:
"報導引述未具名的知情人士透露，中國發射的極音速滑翔載具以5馬赫的速度飛行時，在南海上空發射飛彈。
報導指出當時的試射包含一項先進技術，使極音速載具能以至少5馬赫的速度接近目標時發射飛彈，由於先前沒有任何國家展示過這種能力，讓五角大樓的科學家大感意外。
有部分專家認為，當時發射的可能是一種反制措施，用來摧毀防空系統以防極音速飛彈被擊落。"
夏季的試射到現在仍被當新聞材料，可見五角大廈內對中國掌握極音速技術挺在意:
[ “They launched a long-range missile,” Gen. Hyten said during that interview. “It went around the world, dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle that glided all the way back to China, that impacted a target in China.”
Officials have said the missile missed its target by more than 20 miles. Gen. Hyten said the missile came “close enough” to hitting its target.]
看來也有可能是俄羅斯提供弱化版極音速技術給中國牽制美國?
"The missile can develop a speed of Mach 9 and fly at an altitude of 30-40 km where the range and speed increase as air resistance is smaller. Experts estimate the payload at 300-400 kg and the missile length at 8-10 meters. Tsirkon is to be fired from universal vertical launchers 3S-14 on warships and submarines and from Bastion mobile coastal missile launchers."
印度也加入極音速武器行列:
"This canister-based missile system consists of advanced technologies viz. two stage solid propulsion, electro-mechanical actuators and precision inertial navigation. The missile is launched from ground mobile launcher and it can cover a range of distances.
A number of DRDO laboratories developed various technologies for this advanced missile system. Industry participated in the development and production of various sub-systems.
Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh congratulated the teams involved in the successful test of the supersonic missile assisted torpedo system and said, the development of the system is a perfect example of building futuristic defence systems in the country. "
極音速在核武競賽中增加的戰略變數:
"7月的超音速軌道試射和上述的邏輯相符：透露出中共有能力從一個更難預測的方向以傳統武力或是核子武力攻擊美國，這樣也可能讓美國更難預防。這樣的新系統可能幫助中共確保即使美國率先使用核武，中共剩下的武力還是可以攻擊美國，因為美國的飛彈防禦系統無法保護美國本土不受這種新發射系統的攻擊。所以美國就不敢嘗試對中共進行核武威脅，只要在戰事升高到核武戰爭時美國無法保衛其本土。
如此一來，美中沒有一方能即使先使用核武卻不讓自己的人民免於後續毀滅性的報復攻擊，那麼雙方理性上都有很強的動機不要打核子戰爭，那麼這會讓情勢比較穩定。但把中共更好的核武能力放在更大的中共軍事現代化事業的脈絡下來看，美國是否有能力在亞洲維持其傳統軍事嚇阻的能力其實至關緊要。"
紐時這篇報導從許多衛星照片推敲出中國正準備進行核試爆的蛛絲馬跡:
[ 巴比亚尔兹在2021年初仔细观察罗布泊的新卫星图像时注意到了一些大型的修路设备：一台平地机和一台前端装载机。
“它们出现在荒无人烟的地方，”他回忆道。
巴比亚尔兹顺着这条新路查看下去。这条路长约十几公里，从一片数十年前用于竖井爆炸的平坦地带延伸至一处正在快速发展的山区。
在一片迷宫般的峡谷中，他惊讶地发现了一座正在架设的大型钻机。该钻机高约27米。那是2021年7月。次月，他在新获得的图像中不仅看到了钻机井架，还看到了大量的钻杆和旁边的一个润滑剂深坑，钻头往更深处钻洞时需要润滑剂。巴比亚尔兹从这些线索估计出，钻出的洞深至少有500米。]
https://www.nytimes.com/zh-hans/interactive/2024/01/09/chinese/china-nuclear-tests-lop-nur.html
