頗懷疑這時候放出金融穩定法風聲，是為了接下來的違約潮與更嚴苛的資金管制做準備。前者可能是不認帳或轉移損失，後者可能是將各方面資金限制檯面化降低流動。
"中國銀行央行副行長劉桂平也在3月的1篇文章敦促改革，他指出，中國的金融規則過於分散，可以借鑑美國的《多德—弗蘭克法案》及其他主要經濟體的金融改革經驗。劉桂平認為，中國需要一致的金融穩定法。
劉桂平已向全國人大呈交提案，並建議在條件成熟時盡快出台。但北京威諾律師事務所合夥人Yang Zhaoquan指出，完成這項法案可能得花上3到5年的時間，他稱，由於風險事件接連出現，不僅損害市場，還波及金融及社會穩定性，因此迫切需要更多且強大法律工具。
《彭博》指出，像共產黨這樣執著於「掌控」的政府，在監管金融機構的行為似乎不太一致，一方面是疏忽對華融的監管，導致該公司爆發財務危機，一方面卻又警告像螞蟻集團這樣的公司影響力過大。"
中國的私人上市企業國有化早已開始：
“中國《21經濟網》報導，從數據上看，中國國有資本瘋狂掃貨A股上市公司股權，主要是地方國資，控制權易主成國資的統計（已完成過戶），2018年有16家、2019年34家從民企業變國企，而2019年更佔當年民企易手數量的6成，2020年有40家，佔易手民企的51.95%。”
“這些國資在取得控制權後，就會透過協議轉讓及表決權委託的形式，公司控制權轉移到各地政府手上。
這些上市公司控制人易主給國資，幾乎都是大股東「甩賣」資產，而國資「撿漏」成老為老闆，不過，其中的背景之一是，2018年IPO審核從嚴，逼得民企只能四處融資或引進新的資金，產生「國資紓困潮」，一堆民營公司「被易手」成國資公司，2019年不止融資更嚴，且經濟下行壓力加大，民企流動性危機加劇，致使控制權易手數量再創新高。”
WSJ關注孫大午案並對審判做了報導:
[“Is it dangerous when private businesses grow big? Is it not dangerous when state-run enterprises grow big?” Mr. Sun told the court on Wednesday, according to a transcript provided by the defense team. “I really hope that Dawu Group’s experience can let President Xi know that the implementation of socialism can work and can withstand examination from everyone.”
In his statement, Mr. Sun sought leniency for his company. “It’d be best for me to admit guilt and wrongdoing, for me to bear the burden,” he was quoted as saying. After the verdict was announced, Mr. Sun told his lawyer that he wants to appeal against his conviction, according to the defense team.]
BBC和美聯社也沒漏掉孫大午案:
"Other charges against him include illegally occupying farmland, assembling a crowd to attack state agencies and obstructing government workers from performing their duties. He was also fined 3.11 million yuan ($478,697; £343,227).
Sun's company is among China's biggest, with businesses ranging from meat processing and pet food to schools and hospitals.
He was reportedly detained last year, along with 20 relatives and business associates, over a land dispute with a government-run farm.
At the time, he said dozens of his employees were injured in an incident with police related to the dispute, according to an AFP report."
WSJ分析則認為中國政府評判製造業優於網路業:
[ But in the view of Chinese leaders, consumer internet companies inflict costs on society that aren’t reflected in private market values. Companies such as Ant threaten the stability of the financial system, online education feeds social anxiety and online games such as Tencent’s represent an “opium for the mind,” as one state-owned publication put it this week.
Conversely, Chinese leaders think manufacturing confers social benefits that market values don’t reflect. For decades, it has been how the country created jobs, raised productivity and disseminated essential skills and know-how. Now, to achieve parity with the West, they think China must be able to make the most advanced technology, and will use subsidies, protectionism and forced technology transfers to achieve that.]
星島很好心幫大家複習公式:
"文章舉例指出，去年8月，經濟參考報一篇題為「青海『隱形首富』：祁連山非法採煤獲利百億至今未停」的長篇調查，就引發一場整治風暴，並且導致青海多名高官落馬。
3日報導的第一作者王恒濤也不是普通的新華社記者，而是經濟參考報副總編輯，之前擔任過新華社西藏分社副社長，是副局級幹部。
文章表示，相關報導在修改標題之後「重出江湖」，也意味著官方對遊戲行業的監管勢在必行。"
WSJ提到了這波急轉彎的影響:
[ BofA Securities strategists have recently recommended investors shift holdings from Chinese growth stocks into shares elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, and called the recent history of foreign investors participating in China’s high-growth stocks “incompatible with likely upcoming strategies.”]
趙君朔則是從中方意圖逼美方重回談判桌的角度解讀打擊各大創新產業IPO這個乍看不理性實則打擊美韭很有效的作法:
"放話只是在氣勢上想壓過美方，最能實際增加談判籌碼的方式就是讓美國的利益受到很大的損失，所以美國證監會在中共補教業被重擊之後，為了自保，也被迫宣布在中概股沒有充分揭露其面臨來自政府的監管風險之前，該會將不會受理來自中共企業的上市申請。
習近平這種玉石俱焚，不惜傷害到自己的經濟、金融和科技也要出手的作法（雖然從打擊可能政治對手的角度來看是理性的決策），對美方來說會是一種可信的威脅。這次受創甚深的華爾街金融勢力（如屢次歌頌中共會持續崛起的橋水資本執行長Ray Dalio根據媒體報導到上周為止在這波整肅就損失了120億美元）就很可能會一起對白宮施壓，要求白宮請中方在推出新監管措施前，要考慮美國投資人的利益，這就給了中共和美國協商其他議題的籌碼。"
【習近平是個控制狂，他現在對互聯網行業加強監管，同他前幾年對黨政軍權力一把抓的思路一樣。習近平已經控制了軍隊和國家安全機構，他正在企圖掌控權貴資本。
另外，他覺得鄧小平的「不管白貓，黑貓，逮到老鼠就是好貓」路線，造成巨大貧富差距，他要減少民怨，就要打土豪，這同打貪官一樣，可以建立自己的威信，打擊政敵，奪得經濟掌控權。由於中下層生活無法提升，習近平要在政治上找替罪羊，外部是美帝壓迫的錯，內部是互聯網大亨勾結華爾街資本的錯，這就像希特勒當年指控凡爾賽和約和猶太資本對德國的壓榨一樣。
但是，前幾年他剛開始反腐時，曾得到老百姓支持，不過，老百姓很快發現反腐實質上是習清除政敵的權鬥。現在習近平「打土豪」後，老百姓也不能「分田地」，根本無法解決貧富差距問題，所以習近平要加強煽動中國老百姓的民族主義。】
打土豪2.0。
【根據中國官媒新華社釋出的訊息，習近平在會議中發表講話，直指「高收入」階層及人群，強調「允許一部分人、一部分地區先富起來」不是少數人的富裕，而是要「共同富裕」，疑是宣告終結中共前領導人鄧小平改革開放政策的時代終結，反向走回「走回共產」時代。
習近平強調社會公平，點名要「加大稅收、社保、轉移支付等調節力度並提高精準性」，擴大中等收入群體比重，將中國社會建立成中間大、兩頭小的橄欖型分配結構，而重點作法就是增加低收入者的收入，且「要清理規範不合理收入，整頓收入分配秩序，堅決取締非法收入」，還要鼓勵高收入人群和企業更多回報社會。】
有些熟悉的傻眼....
"央行对个人存取款有了新的限制，并且这一条规定已经在一些地方在试点，其中就包括了深圳、浙江，还有河北。....对公的账户这三个地方全部统一是不允许超过50万元。河北对个人账户的限制额度是十万，浙江的限制额度是30万，而深圳的限制额度是20万。按照相关规定，只要超过了以上限制额度，那就不允许随意提钱出来，必须要与银行事先预约好，之后再填写提取现金的相关信息，并且要将取钱的用处以及存款的来源登记清楚，经过审核之后，这样才能被允许将这部分现金提取出来。"
https://3g.163.com/dy/article/GHIG8OKC0511O49U.html?spss=adap_pc
各位韭菜, 請作好被分配與被慈善的準備~
"要构建初次分配、再分配、三次分配协调配套的基础性制度安排，加大税收、社保、转移支付等等调节的力度，扩大中等收入群体，形成中间大、两头小的橄榄形分配结构。
他强调，第三次分配是在自愿基础上的，不是强制的，国家税收政策要给予适当激励，通过慈善捐赠等方式，起到改善分配结构的补充作用。"
https://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2021-08-26/doc-ikqciyzm3704078.shtml
穩固政權合法性(經濟發展)與脫離中等收入陷阱(開放競爭)的兩難:
"拉米解釋，北京最近控制科技業並試圖更加自力更生，是習近平正進一步加強經濟控制，表現得好像科技業對體制和共產黨構成威脅，雖然跡象顯示威脅尚不存在，但習近平仍認為中國需要進一步與全球市場資本主義脫鉤。「長遠來看這是個問題，尤其是科技服務業，這是中國未來大部分成長的來源。現況是中國幾年前所沒有的烏雲。」
至於中國與美國、歐洲的脫鉤前景，拉米表示不相信中國能用國內消費引擎取代出口引擎，西方市場對中國仍非常重要。「如果美國和歐洲阻礙中國出口數位服務，北京可能會陷入中等收入陷阱。然而數位服務是擺脫陷阱的關鍵，因此需要更高效的產業，也意味更多外國競爭。」"
中國計畫中的內循環經濟可能面臨內需市場因社福縮減而開支越發保守的惡性循環:
"As more shoppers hold back, consumption is becoming an even smaller part of China’s economy. In 2020, private consumption accounted for 38.1% of gross domestic product, its lowest level since 2016, and down from 39.2% in 2019. "
"Getting Chinese households to spend more requires addressing hard-to-resolve structural issues, such as persistent inequality and a lack of an extensive social safety net, which leaves many families wanting to save more in case of emergencies, say researchers and economists."
看來九九六韭礦才是維尼帝眼中的理想社會。
[ China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has a well-known aversion to any social spending, which he has derided as “welfarism,” that he believes might erode the work ethic of the Chinese people.
“Even in the future, when we have reached a higher level of development and are equipped with more substantial financial resources, we still must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism,” Mr. Xi said in a speech two years ago. ]
"中國最高領導人習近平有厭惡社會保障支出的名聲，他嘲笑那是「福利主義」，認為可能會侵蝕中國人民的勤勞美德。
「即使將來發展水平更高、財力更雄厚了，也不能提過高的目標，搞過頭的保障，堅決防止落入『福利主義』養懶漢的陷阱， 」習近平在兩年前的一次講話中說。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20230823/china-economy-property/zh-hant/dual/
看來WSJ記者也很清楚包子的觀點嘛~
"The piecemeal approach to stimulus adopted so far reflects the wariness of China’s Communist leadership to big-ticket policies since a blowout package in 2008 fueled a property bubble they are still dealing with today. Leader Xi Jinping has also spoken of his aversion to Western-style handouts to juice demand, believing them wasteful, preferring instead to focus on building roads and factories and other supply-enhancing measures."
中國諺語所謂的「一朝回到解放前」的一朝大概近在眼前了:
"“Politics will for sure further dictate China’s finance, effectively moving China even closer to how it was before the reforms started in 1978,” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at the University of Hong Kong.
「政治必然將進一步支配中國的金融，使中國更加接近於1978年改革開放開始前的狀態，」香港大學金融學教授陳志武表示。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20231206/china-finance-xi-jinping/zh-hant/dual/
十四號文件預示著中國重返配給制的先聲:
"14號文件指出，已破產的房地產公司裡面的閒置房屋也可以作為保障房的來源之一，以及，地方政府可以利用閒置工業土地建設保障房。
簡單說，這份文件鼓勵中國地方政府以空手套白狼的方式，暗示政府可以將破產民營房企的地產收歸國有，再以便宜的方式轉給財力不足的家庭以合理代價居住，以後中國的住房將回到文革之前的配給時代。"
https://www.wealth.com.tw/articles/c74468fe-80af-47e2-a239-ea20cbeeb752
不是這篇還真不知道原來中國房地產危機處理也在美中洽談內容裡:
"The discussion suggested that Chinese leaders are concerned about how foreign investors view the government’s response to the housing problem, and how they have been selling off Chinese equities and bonds in recent months, some of the people said.
But He didn’t have anything to say on steps that many foreign bankers and investors have urged, such as restructuring cash-strained private developers or completing construction of millions of homes people in China already paid for but never received because their developers ran into financial trouble. He’s half-an-hour-long monologue failed to impress, the people say."
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-real-estate-crisis-state-housing-656c5093?mod=hp_lead_pos8
這些房地產地雷也是破罐子破摔了~
"綜合界面新聞、證券時報、第一財經報導，上海證券交易所於21日發出紀律處分決定書，譴責廣州富力地產，未按時發布2022年的中期財務報告，嚴重影響債券持有人權益；在此之前，恆大地產、佳兆業集團、廣西萬通等房企也遭深圳證券交易所譴責，原因同為「未在規定時間內發布財報」。"
房地產地雷的衍生物: 勞資糾紛
"總部設在香港的「中國勞工通訊」（China Labour Bulletin）收集的數據也顯示，在今年1月1日至2月3日期間，又發生了183起勞工抗議事件，其中僅廣東省就發生了40件。"
"Without cash from continued sales, developers have been unable to finish construction of millions of apartments that they had presold to buyers all over China. Nomura Securities of Japan estimated last month that 20 million presold homes awaited completion in China, and would require $450 billion to finish.
由於無法從持續銷售中獲得現金，開發商無法完成向中國各地購房者預售的數百萬套公寓的建設。日本野村證券上個月估計，中國有2000萬套預售房屋等待完工，需要4500億美元才能竣工。"
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20240229/china-country-garden/zh-hant/dual/
