TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
🔥 Moscow is on fire! The former "Toros" machine-building plant is burning violently.
The fire has already covered 4,000 m². There is a threat of the fire spreading to neighboring buildings (fingers crossed!) The cause of the fire is unknown, but locals wrote about "kabooms". No casualties.
VOVCHANSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE
According to ISW the total number of Russian forces active on the Kharkiv front is around 14,000 while some 38,000 Ukrainians are now in opposition.
The situation in Vovchansk remains complicated for both sides but little by little the Ukrainians are getting the upper hand.
The Ukrainians have repaired the dam road crossing with a pontoon bridge, likely to lead to yet another attack by the Russians, but there may be air defences locally now.
This repair allows them to move more quickly from Kharkiv to Vovchansk.
The Ukrainian forces began massing at a strategic point about 5km SE of Vovchansk called Bilahorordius.
These forces have been feeding a continuous Ukrainian effort to push back against the Russians in Vovchansk and there is talk of them simply not being able to sustain their operations - some say the Russians will have to pull back to survive, but we’ll have to see, they usually prefer to die in vast numbers before giving up - unless they flee because the situation becomes untenable.
Ukrainian drones and artillery have been playing havoc with the Russians and their supply lines, let alone their positions in the town. It seems the Ukrainian artillery shortage is very much over.
Russian and Ukrainian channels are both admitting that the Russians are now on the defensive. This has got to be that make or break point for the Russians. They can either fight on and bring in reinforcements or, while they still can, withdraw after claiming they had ‘achieved their objectives’. If not they risk a defeat.
Ukraine is doing the right thing. This initial attack in this area, if it can be contained and even eradicated, restores the border zone and will seriously undermine any attempts the Russians make anywhere else to break out. It should also not be forgotten that the longer this takes the Ukrainians have more time to prepare defences on the rest of the northern and north eastern borders.
The Russians are still preparing a summer offensive. Another note to that is they are losing around 24,000 men a month but recruiting as many as 30,000 on high-bonus contracts, so their overall manpower pool is still increasing.
For now, in Vovchansk, the Ukrainians seem to have seized the initiative and they have the Russians on the back foot, a little taken aback at the speed and scale of Ukrainian resistance - and very pissed off that the American aid is making so much difference so quickly.
They launched this attack early and risked their unpreparedness to get as much done before the aid became effective. And it hasn’t worked.
I have to put myself in Russian shoes and look at this from command perspective. It’s gone wrong, it’s that simple. This is not what was supposed to happen. Again the ‘whatever is in the box’ reality has come home to roost. The forces and resources granted for this action have been largely exhausted. Where is the reserve? Where is the back up?
I have noted in the past that Russian commanders are very reluctant to admit they need more than they have been given, it’s almost the worst thing you can do, turn around and ask for more because you appear to have failed. That puts them in a position where they don’t ask at all and fail or they ask too late and fail.
If the strategic objective here was to
aid in the battle for Kupiansk, it’s failed. In fact it’s on the cusp of becoming an embarrassment. So the Russians have a choice to make.
Either withdraw and retain some propaganda dignity while they can, or double down hard. It really depends on what their strategic goals have now become. Because this clearly isn’t working and looks like it’s going in the wrong direction.
Excellent Ukrainian operational planning, an outstanding piece of staff work, planning and operational implementation to turn this around.
They have put the Russians in a strategic bind. The distraction operation has become the main event - always a mistake - now they have choices to make they never planned for.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
@EveryUkraineWarVideo Subscribe
On May 29, the ban on entry of Russian tourists to Norway came into effect. Additionally, transit trips through Norway to other European countries are prohibited for Russians, as announced by the government in Oslo last week, according to Deutsche Welle.
The Norwegian authorities specified that the ban does not apply to Russians who have a student or work visa, holders of a border resident's card, residence permits in Schengen countries, or those traveling to Norway to visit relatives.
However, entry may still be denied to Russians with multi-year tourist visas issued by both Norway and other Schengen zone countries.
Despite the ban, there are ways to circumvent it. Russian tourists can fly to a Schengen country that still allows Russian tourists, such as France or Italy, and then travel to Norway by domestic flight or land transport. This loophole remains open despite the primary entry restrictions imposed by many Western countries.
Pentagon opens ammunition factory in Texas to keep arms supply to Ukraine, — New York Times.
The factory under construction in Mesquite, Texas, will soon produce 30,000 155-mm artillery shells per month, roughly double the current US production capacity. In particular, they should cover Ukraine's need to counter Russian forces.
To keep Ukraine’s artillery crews supplied, the Pentagon set a production target last year of 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025.
However, the launch of a single new factory may not be enough to change the outcome of the fighting in Ukraine's favor.
“The steady increase of artillery ammunition production is significant for long-term U.S. and Ukrainian needs,” said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “but even in the best case scenario, I would say those late-2025 output targets will arrive late in this war, and it is likely that Russian artillery output will still be higher than the US and Europe combined at that point.”
Macron intends to create a European coalition of military instructors in Ukraine, — Le Monde, citing its own sources.
According to the publication, several hundred specialists from several countries may be involved to train sappers or even help form a new motorized infantry brigade.
It is noted that consultations on this issue are planned to be accelerated in the coming days in order to make a statement during the meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron in France on June 6-7.
Sweden's new military aid package, announced on May 29, includes two ASC 890 airborne early warning and control aircraft equipped with the latest radar systems.
The ASC 890 aircraft function as advanced radar tracking systems and airborne command posts capable of coordinating the operations of aviation, naval forces, and missile forces, while detecting a variety of threats, such as fighter jets, helicopters, cruise missiles, and naval targets.
"ASC 890" stands for Airborne Surveillance and Control, meaning Air Combat Command and Air Surveillance Platform in Swedish. It is a twin-engine Saab 340 propeller aircraft equipped with a fixed Erieye radar on the roof, developed by the Swedish military-industrial complex.
The Erieye radar can track ships, planes, missiles, and even hovering helicopters up to a distance of 300-400 km at an altitude of 6,100 meters. It covers an effective observation area of over 500,000 square kilometers, allowing the ASC 890 to operate from a safe distance from enemy forces.
The aircraft is equipped with a wide range of communication facilities, providing connectivity with involved units and other control centers both on the ground and in the air, allowing anti-aircraft troops to transmit their data through the plane.
According to the official specifications, the ASC 890 can perform the following missions:
▫️Air and sea surveillance, including reconnaissance
▫️Early air warning
▫️Control over own military assets
▫️Surveillance and control of national borders
▫️Search and rescue
▫️Alarm notification
▫️Airspace protection
The crew consists of six people, and the aircraft can fly for about six hours.
These aircraft will provide Ukraine with "absolutely new opportunities for radar reconnaissance and combat control of targets in the air and at sea."
Journalist: "Mr. Secretary. Just to be clear, Mr. Secretary, when you say the U.S. will adapt and adjust to conditions on the battlefield in Ukraine, are you signaling a greater openness by the United States to allow Ukrainians to strike legitimate military Russian targets in Russia? "
Blinken: "With regard to Ukraine, adapt and adjust means exactly that. I think what you’ve seen over the last two-plus years is – as the nature of the battlefield has changed, as the locations, the means that Russia is employing have changed – we’ve adapted and adjusted to that, including, for example, by the different kinds of weapons systems that we and allies and partners have provided to Ukraine. When this – before this started, before the Russian aggression, when we saw it coming, President Biden made sure, for example, in drawdowns that he did months before the Russian aggression, the Ukrainians had Stingers and Javelins, which were instrumental in making sure that they could ward off the effort to take Kyiv and erase the country from the map. And at every step along the way, we’ve adapted and adjusted as necessary, and so that’s exactly what we’ll do going forward. We’re always listening, we’re always learning, and we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself. And we’ll continue to do that."
🤔United States Secretary of State Blinken made statements today in Moldova on Ukrainian use of US weapons to strike russia in self defense
Journalist to Blinken (visiting Moldova): "Mr. Secretary, in recent days a number of leaders – Macron, Scholz, Secretary General Stoltenberg – have spoken about potentially letting Ukraine use Western arms to strike directly on Russian soil when Russia is directly targeting Ukraine. You’ve been publicly reported to be the most forward-leaning senior American official to be pushing for that. Do you think President Biden can be persuaded to agree on that?"
Blinken: "Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over these now more than two years has been to adapt. As the conditions have changed, as the battlefield has changed, as what Russia does has changed in terms of how it’s pursuing its aggression, escalation, we’ve adapted and adjusted too, and I’m confident we’ll continue to do that. "
Prices for coffins have soared in Russia
The war with Ukraine provoked a sharp increase in the cost of funeral services and goods in Russia. In February, citizens had to pay an average of 7.4 thousand rubles to make a coffin. Compared to the same month in 2022, the price jumped by 66% - then a coffin could be purchased for about 4.5 thousand rubles, “Important Stories” calculated based on Rosstat data.
At the same time, digging graves is becoming more expensive. Last year, the increase in prices for this service reached 11.25% and became the maximum for the entire time of available statistics (since 2016). In February of this year, such work cost an average of 10.2 thousand rubles, while in the same month of 2022 it was necessary to pay about 7.9 rubles for them. Cumulatively, over two years of war, digging graves became 23% more expensive.
The cost of cremation has also increased. If in February 2022 you had to pay an average of 21 thousand rubles for it, now it’s already 32 thousand rubles (+52%).
- Russians taking part in the so called special operation may wish to place their orders now before prices increase further.
Will it unsettle them enough to make them seek peace. Ukraine promises to leave the radar alone if they will cease hostile actions and pull back to the 2013 borders
Rest in Peace
On May 29, during a rotation in the Kharkiv region, Iryna Tsybukh, a paramedic of the Ukrainian volunteer medical battalion “Hospitallers,” was killed. She was only 25 years old🕯️
This battalion has been participating in the Russo-Ukrainian war in Donbas since 2014. They provide first aid, pre-medical assistance, and evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the hottest spots on the front line.
Rest in Peace
18-year-old swimmer Nikita Zasiadko from Kharkiv gave his life for the freedom and independence of our country.
The boy devoted most of his life to sports. At the age of 15, he was awarded the title of Master of Sports of Ukraine in swimming, and at 17 — a candidate for Master of Sports in freestyle wrestling.
In 2022, Nikita graduated from the Kharkiv Professional College of Sports and entered the Kharkiv State Academy of Physical Culture to study two specialities at once: "Rehabilitation therapist" and "recreation".
Despite the danger, he stayed in his hometown, continued to study and volunteer.
As soon as he turned 18, he took a gap year and voluntarily joined the legendary Azov Brigade. He became a senior machine gunner with the call sign "Proud".
By the Decree of the President of Ukraine, Nikita Zasyadko was awarded the Order "For Courage", III degree (posthumously).
May he rest in peace...
The Committee of Youth and Sports
Source: Sports Committee of Ukraine
How are the prison inmates working as soldiers?
This one tripped and fell face first into it.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/samuel-alito-just-stepped-in-it/56349/
Judge "Loose Cannon" can't stay out of it.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
TheOldGuy's choices:
