TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
From "The Analyst":
DRAMATIC UKRAINIAN COUNTER ATTACK
Ukrainian forces became trapped in a chemical factory at New York, pinned in by the Russian advance.
The situation arose in the first place because the Russians had captured the high central ground south of the town and the Ukrainians had just the low lying residential districts to the north that surrounded the chemical factory. The Russians launched a pincer attack around the factory overwhelming the Ukrainians in the residential area and forced them out.
The Ukrainians managed to fortify the chemical plant making it incredibly difficult for the Russians to attack it with the resources they had to hand.
In short the chemical plant is a veritable fortress of bunkers, steel and concrete, with many geographical features around it that make attacking it difficult.
Even just bombing and shelling it would take weeks and masses of resources.
Ukraine is in no mood to go through another siege like the one at the Azovstahl at the start of the war. Relieving the plant and restoring their positions was granted to the Special Purpose 12th Azov Brigade. These are unquestionably some of the ‘hardest’ battle trained troops in the army. They were there at Mariupol in 2022.
The plan was to restore a line of communication and supply with the plant and drive the Russians back enough to properly reconnect it with Ukrainian forces.
It was vital the Russians didn’t know the Azov were coming. For maximum impact they needed to deploy secretly and this was achieved in short order. The brigade relished the chance to take revenge on the invaders in such a scenario.
The Azov Brigade launched their attack with complete surprise - overwhelming the Russians with men, drones and artillery. The speed of their assault and the accuracy of their artillery crippled the Russian forces as they lost any sense of control over their situation.
The result was a major victory for the Azov Brigade, retaking the north of the city and firmly reconnecting the fortified Ukrainian positions in the Chemical plant.
This action not only retains a vital defence point but greatly assists the defence of Toretsk to the north by relieving pressure from the New York direction.
It also seems that it’s another important counter to the Russian efforts to push forward - the salient offensive is now appearing to have stalled. It’s also a major morale boost for Ukraine proving they still have the ability to return to the offensive when they have the plan and the forces to do so. Russian mobilised forces are no match for surprises and experienced soldiers.
Elsewhere the Russians have tried to make small inroads at Vovchansk and failed.
There is fighting on the Vuhledar front that hasn’t gone well for the Russians so far.
The central front is still a hotbed of conflict as the Russians persistently try to breakthrough using drones, artillery and aerial bombs.
Russian attacks east of the Oskil River further north have resumed but have been resisted.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
RED LINE
I was deeply offended by the use of the word ‘cowardly’ to describe Western (as in everyone in the western world) behaviour towards the use of long range weapons inside Russia.
We all know why the permission would help Ukraine win. We all know the weapons exist. We have already allowed them widespread use - just not inside Russian Federation borders.
There can only be one reason, it’s either simple or a complex interlocking threat, but the principle is the same nonetheless.
Russia has behind the scenes, made it clear that while it has put up with everything else, ballistic missiles of American origin on Russian soil is just not acceptable.
There is actually a strange practical acceptance of the realities in Russian minds westerners find hard to understand, but it’s along the lines of, it’s what they would do so they don’t ‘mind’ it’s what we do as much as you would think. It’s hard to get your head around but that’s how they think. It’s not them being generous, but fatalistically and characteristically Russian.
However it doesn’t shock me that they have one red line they won’t accept being crossed . This might well be it.
If they have such a line, it may be they have made it clear what their retaliation would be. It could be nuclear, it could be a threat to strike places in Ukraine they haven’t yet done because they know it will open the door to attacks on themselves. For example a massive ballistic missile assault on the command and government centres of Ukraine - Kyiv itself. Russia is capable of it and only the risk of attacks on Moscow have stopped them doing it.
Some kind of very believable threat has been made is my assessment. It’s that that is holding permission back and will do so for the duration.
Would you with such a threat in play, ignore it?
Why I think it exists is because Russia has indicated it does but has not made what it is public. It doesn’t want the world knowing anymore than the recipient of the news wants you to hear it.
Yet Great Power geopolitical strategies are multifaceted and complex. Wars can be waged as long as X or Y isn’t done. Everyone accepts the rules when they are clear but the rules are only known to the principle players. That’s how it’s always been - it’s how the game is played.
Not understanding how the game works is itself understandable. It’s cynical and manipulative. But it’s nothing new.
I’m sure there is now a red line. America isn’t crossing it and it won’t say what it is. They have their own and Russia knows what that is too.
Do you really want to find out what those lines are?
You don’t. You really don’t.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
⚡️In a week in which Russian drones hit, Romania, Latvia and Poland, last night Sweden's largest airport was forced to stop traffic for several hours due to unidentified drones in the surrounding airspace.
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Children continue bearing the brunt of Russia's killing in Ukraine as Russians target a residential neighborhood in Nikopol, among victims is a 16 year old girl.
The girl died in hospital this morning after intitially being rescued from the rubble of her home.
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🇺🇦✈️ Ukrainian aviation strikes with precision bombs on a bridge near the village of Karizh, Kursk region
🙏 An unsuccessful attempt by an enemy FPV drone to attack a Ukrainian military buggy in the Donetsk region
Yesterday I got a bit done on the woodpile. I want 40 banana boxes in my shed and 20 in the house by winter. I don't use the wood stove all winter. Spring and fall plus if the temperatures drop to around 0⁰. The rest of the time I prefer the wood furnace. Load it at 9PM and again at 9AM. And not much splitting. Everything 12 inch diameter or smaller just gets pitched in.
I switched to long pants yesterday. Sammie has interesting habits. The came along when I first sat down, but declined an invite to my lap. I noticed she had a few burrs. She went off and cleaned herself. Then she hopped up.
Good morning Resisters. Started the morning at 49⁰. They say we have a hurricane coming. As far as we are from the coast, it just gives us torrential rain.
💭🇺🇦🇺🇦 Ukraine is building underground factories for the production of weapons and ammunition, — Zelenskyy
This family is getting a lot of attention. But I think of the others too.
Eternal Memory
https://open.substack.com/pub/martinkuz/p/against-darkness?r=70k1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Last night, in the Ukrainian town of Mykolaivka, Russians struck a hotel with a FAB-250 aerial bomb.
Two animal rescue volunteers were killed.
Video credit: Radio Liberty
Not much left of the hotel.
According to the anonymous Military Analyst:
AMERICA ISN’T CHANGING ITS MIND
Nothing says ‘no’ more clearly than the SecDef Lloyd Austin repeating the same thing America has been saying for weeks.
The Russians have moved their aircraft so you don’t need ATACMS (and by default anything else) supplied by the West to hit their airbases.
And then have your own efforts pushed back at you, ‘because Ukraine clearly has weapons of its own that can reach those targets anyway’. So you don’t need our stuff and the risk of escalation we think comes with it.
There is no way the US is crossing that line this side of an election and I’m not sure it will even after it.
They’re not bothered about Ukraine using anything it makes domestically- that’s their business. But at the moment they are using the ‘over my dead body’ approach to frankly tell the Ukrainians they are fed up with being asked and they won’t change their minds, so let it go.
Zelensky was at the Ramstein meeting in person and it was clearly a message delivered to him to stop embarrassing the administration by asking for what he is never going to get.
The Americans are so intransigent over it I can’t help but wonder if the Russians have actually made it a red line the Americans believe this time.
History will tell us eventually.
@ukrainejournal
Germany will provide Ukraine with 12 additional PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzers in 2024-2025
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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