TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
And now for the good news:
THE LONG RANGE WAR IS UKRAINE’S ACE CARD
There’s no doubt in my mind that when Putin began his adventure in Ukraine - and those who avidly supported it - they didn’t think for one minute that it would ever lead to targets across Russia coming under relentless and consistent attacks. Ukraine has developed in the space of three years a strategic war fighting capability based on ever more sophisticated drones - some of them with thousands of kilometres range. If anything they have turned what Russia has done to them on its head and shown they too, can reach painfully deep and meaningful targets that have lasting effects on Russia.
Over the past couple of nights the Ukrainians have again struck deep at key Russian targets - this time at the very radars that potentially detect the drones and provide some warning, along with key fuel distribution hubs and
Feodosia in Crimea was attacked destroying a refined fuels transshipment hub, another at Voronezh was also taken out despite Russia claiming they shut down all drones. The site was clearly engulfed in flames.
And this is more interesting because of the range, that jet powered drones appeared to have been filmed attacking another site like this as far away as Perm, also up in flames said to cover over 1km square.
Another airbase in the Voronezh region was struck, targeting Su-35’s, GBU bomb warehousing and local radars.
Much of this was possible because in the last week the Ukrainians managed to find and destroy a Russian mobile radar station just 15km from the front. These are immensely expensive $120m units that take two years to build and Russia only had 15 when the war started - over half have been destroyed.
With these gone Ukrainian Su-24’s - possibly the last two in service - used StormShadow and GMLRS to strike Russian command bunkers - in devastating fireballs that can’t have left much behind. You can see the video on United24. These wiped out the command of some three brigades and a sector logistics planning centre.
The Ukrainians have no choice - they must use what they have against Russia as quickly as it becomes available to them. Destroying the support architecture behind the lines is and does have direct impact on the front.
Within days of the ammo depot destruction shell shortages began as the supply chain was severed. Reduced radar cover provided opportunities for other strikes, fuel shortages hamper armoured assaults.
It all has its effect and it certainly costs Russia more time and more money. The very two things it has least of.
The long range war will go on.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
@ukrainejournal
It's hard to hold back tears when you see these family reunions. Thousands of Ukrainians are waiting for their loved ones to return home from military service, even for a short vacation. Many more are waiting for those who remain in russian captivity.
@ukrainejournal
In other news
Some extremely impressive footage of Israel's iron dome air defence.
I wish Ukraine had iron dome air defence!! 🥺😢
@ukrainejournal
The Analyst
MI5 HEAD WARNS UK OVER RUSSIAN DISRUPTION ATTACKS
I’ve explained a couple of times before why Russia has a pathological loathing of Britain, dating back to the mid 1800’s.
The British are largely unaware of it because it seems somehow ludicrous as we close in on the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century. Some Britons find it harder still to understand when we sacrificed so much sending the convoys into arctic waters to supply Russia during the worst parts of WW2. Thousands of British sailors died to get ships laden with equipment to Archangelsk.
That however has all been forgotten in Russia. Britain is the architect in Russian eyes, of support for Ukraine. Once again Britain is seen as Perfidious Albion - you can look that one up!
The head of MI5 gave a public briefing yesterday where he stated that Putin has ordered that he wants to see ‘disruption and chaos’ inside the UK.
Plans are underway to sow discord and hatred in the country through the right wing and left wing extremism that caused the riots earlier this year.
Social media and provocation is to be used to stimulate unrest on a grand scale.
The first defense for any situation is knowing that it’s going to happen.
The second is knowing that it’s going to take ten times the effort to stop lies and misinformation than it takes to create it.
It’s not just social unrest. Military manufacturing sites and physical attacks on key infrastructure are all expected with major efforts by Russian cyber forces to cause problems.
All of this is depends on if they can spare the time. Over the last three days Ukraine launched a major cyber attack on Russian banking, news, and government services in Russia - apparently highly successful at that.
Russia should also be very careful what it does. GCHQ and its cyber arm are capable organisations that work hand in hand with the US NSA and they won’t just sit by and ignore it.
As far as social media goes we have to make sure we understand as a nation we are the target and we need to do what Britons have been known for, for 90 years past -
Keep Calm and Carry On!
RUSSIAN S-70 OKHOTNIK
The holy grail of western air forces as we head into an AI driven future, is an effective combat force multiplier.
A force multiplier is something that gives you added capabilities in the 80% range, ideally, but without the cost exceeding around 30% of the primary platform.
The best way for western nations to maximise their limited budgets and magnify their expensive maned fighter jets, is the Loyal Wingman Concept.
Ideally the US is eventually looking to field a pair of drones linked to a single aircraft such as the F-35, that will fly with it carrying additional kit - weapons, jammers, even potentially additional fuel (the US navy is well advanced with such a drone having completed in flight tests refuelling from carriers).
Australia is highly committed and has already ordered Loyal Wingman from Lockheed to be built in Australia.
So, just over a week ago on Saturday 5th October, a bizarre incident happened over Russian occupied Ukrainian air space.
An Su-57 a rare sight itself, was operating with what is believed to be just one of only three of Russia’s equivalent drones.
These drones are not small, they are in essence an unmanned combat jet without any of the pilot supporting features.
The S-70 Okhotnik is a huge delta wing format drone and at some point while flying near the frontlines around Konstantinivka, it broke contact with the Su-57 and started to head into Ukraine.
Afraid that they couldn’t get it back under control and it would end up in western hands, the pilot was ordered to shoot it down. He did so using a missile from around 1.5km away.
The missile hit but while it knocked the drones engine out it didn’t destroy the drone, which fell in one piece - spiralling downwards and hit the ground where it broke into several pieces.
These have of course proved to be of huge interest to Ukraine and its western allies.
You have to ask yourself what the Russians were doing using it over a combat zone when it’s still considered largely experimental. But perhaps that was the point, to see if radars picked it up and how it might perform under hostile EW.
The answer appears to have been badly.
What will be of particular interest is where the sophisticated on board computers, circuits and chips came from, let alone how Russia is approaching this crucial new technology.
The images show the Su-57 shooting down the drone and it falling to the ground.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
Ukraine and Croatia signed an Agreement on long-term support and cooperation between the two countries.
“Together, we will continue to develop cooperation between our defense industries. Croatia will keep providing equipment and sharing expertise on humanitarian demining,” — Zelensky.
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📢 Subscribe to Kyiv Post
Due to Hurricane Milton, Biden withdrew.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40240
🇫🇷 France will deliver Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine in the first months of 2025.
These multi-role aircraft are equipped with new technology, including protection against electronic warfare (EW). Ukrainian pilots and mechanics are currently being trained to operate and maintain the Mirage jets.
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
🇭🇺 Hungary has blocked a $50 billion loan to Ukraine until after the U.S. elections. Additionally, Budapest has postponed its decision on extending EU sanctions against Russia
“We believe that the issue of extending Russian sanctions should be decided after the U.S. elections. We need to see the direction the future U.S. administration will take,” said Hungary’s Finance Minister Mihály Varga.
The loan, agreed upon by G7 leaders in June, is to be serviced using frozen Russian assets. The U.S. is demanding guarantees that these assets will not be unfrozen in the future, as the sanctions on them are currently renewed every six months by a unanimous vote of EU member states.
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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