ISW update for the Kursk Oblast of russia
Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised elite Russian VDV and naval infantry formations defending Kursk Oblast on February 5, highlighting the fact that the Ukrainian incursion has pinned about a combined arms army’s worth of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast since August 6, 2024.
Ukrainian officials provided additional details about Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast in honor of the six-month anniversary of the incursion.
Geolocated footage published on February 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southwest of Makhnovka (southeast of Sudzha) and north and east of Cherkasskaya Konopelka (southeast of Sudzha) along the 38K-028 Sudzha-Oboyan highway and seized Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and Fanaseyevka (just southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked in several waves in the direction of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok (southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka along the 38K-028 highway) with up to two mechanized battalions' worth of armored vehicles and that Russian forces repelled the attack.
Russian milbloggers estimated that Ukrainian forces attacked with 30 to 50 armored vehicles and claimed that one group of Ukrainian forces successfully attacked from Makhnovka towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka, Fanaseyevka, and Ulanok and that Russian forces repelled another Ukrainian group that attacked from Dmitriukov (just east of Makhnovka) towards Russkaya Konopelka (east of Sudzha).
UKRAINIAN KURSK OFFENSIVE TAKES RUSSIANS OFF GUARD
Ukraine launched its offensive SW of the main base town of Sudzha and the Russians are clearly scrambling to react. The move seems to have come as a complete surprise and the Ukrainians have penetrated as much as 5km behind Russian lines. The whole Russian strategy over Kursk has devolved into farce. The Ukrainians seem to have the upper hand.
Ukraine seized Kolmakov and the Russians appear to be in some disarray as they try to gather themselves to resist.
With some 78,000 Russian troops and another 11,000 NK troops the systematic failure to retake Kursk seems to have dropped from the Russians plans for now, in favour of Pokrovsk.
The fact for the Russians is that while the initial attack some 7-8 months ago took them by surprise, their initial counter attacks when they happened were very successful.
However once those petered out, nothing has gone right since. Deadlines missed, thousands of troops lost, an embarrassing mess.
It’s interesting that the Ukrainians are attacking now just as they have made efforts around Pokrovsk - they seem to sense a weakness in the Russians and are trying to exploit this at last.
The Analyst
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