TheOldGuy @TheOldGuy@qoto.org
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
Russians will be imprisoned for 35 years for "sabotage".
The Z-government has approved a bill toughening criminal liability for "sabotage activities", the maximum punishment will be 35 years in prison, according to state-controlled media. "The draft recall notes that the government supports the bill." It was prepared by the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption, Vasily Piskarev.
According to the draft law, Part 5 of Article 56 of the Criminal Code (Deprivation of liberty for a certain period) will be supplemented with references to Articles 281 (Sabotage) and 281.3 (Organization of a sabotage community and participation in it). This will make it possible to impose the punishment provided for in these articles for up to 30 years, and for the aggregate of sentences - up to 35 years.
At the moment, the maximum term under the article "sabotage" is 25 years in prison, a similar punishment is provided for the organization of a "sabotage community".
In early April, the Second Western District Military Court, for the first time in Z-landia, began considering a case of recruiting teenagers to set fire to relay cabinets at railway facilities. The police started the cases under the article of hooliganism committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy, which were later reclassified.
There are two defendants in the case - Kirill Gorkov and Evgeny Zaichkin. They were charged with sabotage, and Gorkov is also charged with involving a minor in the commission of a crime, theft and undergoing training for the purpose of sabotage.
Source
If they continue to inflate charges and punishment, the day might come when people won't just restrain themselves to arson, green paint and similar as killings are just punished the same. So if you go, you actually can pull out all stops. The risk is the same. Just an idea.
@freerussia_report
From "The Analyst":
RESTRAINT OR ESCALATION? UKRAINIAN OPTIONS AND MEANS
It’s become clear that the US did indeed ask Ukraine not to attack oil refineries in Russia, during a meeting at the Munich security conference. Veep Harris communicated it to Zelensky in person. He wasn’t very amused by it and did it anyway.
Putin later claimed that the attacks on power stations were revenge.
This is blatant nonsense. Russia has been trying to destroy the power plants for two years, increasing air defences made it harder and the Russians got fed up with losing so many missiles for no result. Once they realised the air defences were depleted they started again. The refineries had nothing to do with it. That was Putin cleverly playing into the hands of weak minded ‘escalationist’ politicians in America and Europe.
The whole concept of escalation in the Ukraine war is a complex one.
Russia is allowed to attack Ukraine with whatever it likes whenever it wants to - with the exception of WMD’s. They would almost certainly illicit a different kind of response, and this has been strongly communicated to the Kremlin.
Ukraine can only use weapons it makes itself on Russian territory proper. Supplied weapons from the west can only be used inside the 1991 frontiers of Ukraine.
The Americans resisted supplying ATACAMS on the grounds Ukraine might used them against Russia then relented and handed over just enough too late to make a difference in last year’s offensive. When has Ukraine ever used western weapons where it was specifically asked not to? It never has. Yet the same argument is used by Germany over Taurus. The spurious argument that German troops would have to enter Ukraine to assist in targeting is laughable. As one German source told me, ‘you could set the targeting of the missile in Poland and ship it into Ukraine and link it up with the Su-24 the same way the RAF and French air forces do remotely’. It’s just an excuse to avoid upsetting the Russians and giving them the tiniest fragment of an opportunity to claim escalation.
So much of Ukraine’s resistance and capabilities have been restrained by western concerns over escalation it’s become a joke. Yet every time a new line is crossed - including the supply of fighter aircraft - it’s made no difference. What more can Russia use or do it hasn’t already? Does it really want to widen this war into a NATO-Russia conflict? What benefit would that bring Russia? None. None at all. For a start it would bring in a level of air forces that would decimate Russian forces in Ukraine. This isn’t what they want at all. It’s taking their entire national effort to keep the war they started going.
There is an old principle that applies to wars as much as individuals.
The gun is just a lump of metal, the bullet the same. It could sit there for a thousand years and it’s still a lump of metal. It takes a human to pick it up and use it. Weapons are sold all over the world. Do we take responsibility for their use by the buyer? No. It’s the buyer who decided to use them, not us. So why is Ukraine any different?
Ukraine has also reached the point where its understanding about only using domestically produced weapons in Russia has reached new levels.
One of the most secret of its programs is the never mentioned ballistic missile. That was known to be under development before the war started. Rumours of its existence continue to circulate intermittently. Keeping it under wraps - such things require large production sites - won’t be easy. I suspect it’s been moved into a mountain complex in the Carpathians and is still some way off.
The production of a new long range (1000km) version of the Neptune anti shipping missile has already been revealed.
I have long wondered if a change of guidance system and software would enable it to be used over land as a cruise missile. It has land based launchers. Think how the Tomahawk was developed as such over many years and is still in production today. Are we seeing a new capability introduced?
Necessity is the mother of invention.
Donnie spent his second day sleeping
The tanks they are rebuilding now are in poor shape, requiring more time and materials.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/analysts-estimate-russia-s-tank-potential/
British Foreign Minister David Cameron said that unlike Israel, which London helped shoot down Iranian drones last weekend, his country cannot help Ukraine to avoid "a direct confrontation between NATO forces and the Russian army."
"I think the difficulty is that if you want to avoid an expansion of the war in Europe, I think the only thing you need to avoid is a direct confrontation between NATO forces and Russian forces. That would be a danger of escalation." Cameron emphasized.
🤦♂️🤦♂️
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged House Republicans to swiftly pass the Senate-approved national security supplemental bill, emphasizing the critical aid it provides to foreign allies like Ukraine and Israel. In a letter released Monday, Jeffries emphasized the urgency of the situation, citing the recent Iranian attack on Israel as further evidence of the pressing need for immediate action. He called on Republicans to prioritize the aid package, stressing that delays are no longer acceptable given the escalating threats faced by Ukraine and its people.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4595189-jeffries-house-gop-foreign-aid/
Rest in Peace Pavlo
Sergeant of the 59th Brigade Pavlo Petrychenko died at the front during a combat mission in the Donetsk region. He worked for the famous Serhiy Prytula Foundation, many other public initatives and was an aerial recon expert within the AFU.
Recently he brought up the issue of online gambling among military personnel...
Pavlo, eternal glory to you🕯
As of April 2024, Olha Skrypnyk, head of the board of the Crimean human rights group, reports that Russia is holding at least 18 journalists captive. Skrypnyk notes that they have identified 98 officials of the occupation administration involved in the persecution of journalists, including Russian judges, prosecutors, and representatives of the FSB.
"Russia persists in unlawfully detaining civilian journalists, falsely accusing them of terrorism. Currently, we know of at least 18 journalists imprisoned, who are being denied medical care," Skrypnyk stated during the Second Black Sea Security Conference.
She further explains that following the occupation of the Kherson region in 2022, Russian military personnel abducted journalists from Kherson, transported them to Crimea, and charged them with collaborating with the Ukrainian military.
Subsequently, after the occupation of Crimea, the number of media outlets on the peninsula decreased by 12 times. The remaining media outlets operate solely in the interests of the occupation administration.
"According to occupation 'legislation,' since 2015, only 232 media outlets have been registered in Crimea. Prior to the occupation, over three thousand media outlets were active on the peninsula. It's evident that all of them operate under the control and funding of the occupiers, avoiding coverage of problematic issues and neglecting to report on the suppression of freedom of speech or violations of the rights of Crimean residents," added the human rights activist.
From "The Analyst":
CHASIV YAR: RUSSIA WANTS IT BY MAY 9th
According to General Sryski, in a press release Saturday, the Russians have set the big WW2 memorial parade day as the date for Chasiv Yar to be conquered. Dates like this have come and gone before.
The question is why is Chasiv Yar so important and can they achieve this goal in that time frame - under a month?
Lack of air defence on the front combined to a much higher sortie rate by the VKS, who have even been using Su-25 Frogfoot tactical strike aircraft again, on top of glide bombs from further behind the lines, is said to be key in making the Russian goal a reality.
May 9th is I believe, pie in the sky. This is a three to six month battle at the very least and it’s going to be expensive.
Chasiv Yar is fortified from all sides - defences have been prepared for months. A quick breakthrough seems unlikely.
The problem remains however, that Chasiv Yar is important in a way Bakhmut was not.
Bakhmut’s only importance was that it was the gateway to Chasiv Yar - the real prize in the defence chain.
If it falls there is no major settlement between it and a semi-circle of towns and villages with the vital Kramatorsk as the ultimate goal.
Between Chasiv Yar and these settlements is complex terrain and a new Ukrainian defence line, still not yet fully ready.
Chasiv Yar is the central point more or less that would allow Russian forces to radiate out against these towns, the three most southerly are closest to it, including Sloviansk. These are the last line of defence in the Donbas. Russian aims are to take all of that region and Luhansk.
Constantinivka is however the most likely target as its closest and sits on a key supply highway.
If this fell, then problems supplying the entire defence line increases dramatically.
This would force Ukraine to reinforce it, almost certainly while being under pressure in the Zaporhizia and Kupiansk directions.
Seizing these southern towns would open up the possibility of collapsing the Ukrainian defence lines and shaking up the whole of the Southeastern front.
The region behind these key towns is flatter, more rural and the Russians would be code to seizing all of what remains of Donbas- long accepted as their primary goal since it was supposedly ‘annexed’ in 2022.
The dangers of Russian advances however are many. While a quicker than expected victory at Chasiv Yar would almost certainly see a scenario like the one above - it creates a salient that is potentially soft and open to counter attacks if they can be prepared quickly.
Chasiv Yar matters. So far though Ukraine has not been successful in defending towns like this in the long term. It has extracted a high price for them - but it has also cost Ukraine dearly too.
Air defences and artillery support are critical. Only external aid can change the situation, and sadly America is the key to that this year. And we’re still nowhere near resolving that problem.
Chasiv Yar is just one of three or four potentially important choke points Ukraine will have to defend - at least two others will be used as distraction and fixing campaigns to keep Ukraine engaged elsewhere.
It’s going to be a tough summer.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦!
The new Ukrainian barrage munition RAM X, which was presented to Volodymyr Zelenskyi on the occasion of the Armed Forces Day.
It was already tested at the front - with its help the enemy Tunguska and other equipment were damaged.
Briefly about its capabilities:
▪️ simple launch from a catapult;
▪️ declared flight range of 100+ km;
▪️speed 180 km/h;
▪️weight of the warhead is 3 kilograms and has three types - fragmentation, thermobar and impact core;
▪️ works in pairs with a repeater drone that also searches for a target;
▪️artificial intelligence that captures the target and can bring the UAV to it by itself;
▪️the possibility of hunting for enemy reconnaissance UAVs is also planned, by installing a fragmentation warhead and controlled detonation next to the enemy drone.
I am a Democrat who supports Ukraine in their battle against The Russian Z fascist invaders.
I am a 73 year old Covid hermit who
lives on 10 acres in a sparsely populated area of the Ozarks. I heat with wood that is leftover by the lumber industry. When cutting oak for lumber only the trunk is used.
The largest town is population 2992. The county is 13k people scattered over 713 square miles.
Joined Dec 2022
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